When Natural Hazards Intersect with Public Health: A Preliminary Exploration of the Impact of Bushfires and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Australian Coastal Drowning Fatalities.

Natural hazards combined with the COVID-19 pandemic have had significant global impacts to the community and the environment. This study explores the impact of the Australian 2019/20 bushfires followed by the COVID-19 pandemic on unintentional coastal drowning fatalities. Fatality data were collated using triangulation methodology. Percentage change in coastal drowning fatalities between 2019/20 financial year (FY) and the 15FY annual average (2004/5-2018/19) were calculated for the dominant bushfire period (August 2019-February 2020 inclusive) and COVID-19 restrictions in place for 2019/20FY (March-June 2020 inclusive). Relative risk (RR; with 95% confidence intervals [CI]) of coastal drowning was calculated against the average for overall, bushfire and COVID-19 periods, using coastal participation data as the denominator, weighted for the predicted decrease in the use of outdoor coastal areas due to these widespread events. Coastal drowning fatalities increased in 2019/20FY by 9% overall (bushfires: 6%; COVID-19: 9%). Swimming/wading drowning fatalities increased during the bushfire period (RR = 2.02; 95% CI: 1.13-3.63), while boating and personal watercraft (PWC)-related fatalities increased during both the bushfire (RR = 2.92; 95% CI: 1.41-6.05) and COVID-19 period (RR = 3.86; 95% CI: 1.64-9.11). Rock fishing fatalities also increased across both the bushfire (RR = 4.19; 95% CI: 1.45-12.07; p = 0.008) and COVID-19 (RR = 3.8;95% CI: 1.24-11.62; p = 0.027) periods. Findings indicate the activity patterns leading to coastal drowning fatalities changed despite significant public health events impacting freedom of movement and thus opportunity for coastal participation. Understanding, and preparing for, the impacts of natural hazards on drowning risk is vital for future preventive efforts.