Projecting the impact of Covid-19 variants and vaccination strategies in disease transmission using a multilayer network model in Costa Rica.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 2279, 2022 02 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35145180
ABSTRACT
For countries starting to receive steady supplies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the course of Covid-19 for the following months will be determined by the emergence of new variants and successful roll-out of vaccination campaigns. To anticipate this scenario, we used a multilayer network model developed to forecast the transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Costa Rica, and to estimate the impact of the introduction of the Delta variant in the country, under two plausible vaccination scenarios, one sustaining Costa Rica's July 2021 vaccination pace of 30,000 doses per day and with high acceptance from the population and another with declining vaccination pace to 13,000 doses per day and with lower acceptance. Results suggest that the introduction and gradual dominance of the Delta variant would increase Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions by [Formula see text] and [Formula see text], respectively, from August 2021 to December 2021, depending on vaccine administration and acceptance. In the presence of the Delta variant, new Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions are estimated to increase around [Formula see text] and [Formula see text], respectively, in the same period if the vaccination pace drops. Our results can help decision-makers better prepare for the Covid-19 pandemic in the months to come.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vacinação
/
Vacinas contra COVID-19
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
America central
/
Costa rica
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos