Current and Future Burdens of Heat-Related Hyponatremia: A Nationwide Register-Based Study.

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT A seasonal variation in hyponatremia, with higher incidence rates during hot summer days, has been demonstrated. Whether this applies to cool temperate regions is currently unknown. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of ambient temperature on hyponatremia in the Swedish population under current and future climate scenarios. METHODS: This nationwide cohort study identified all patients hospitalized with a first-ever principal diagnosis of hyponatremia between October 2005 and December 2014. Incidence rates for hyponatremia were calculated as number of hospitalizations divided by person-days at risk in the adult Swedish population at a given temperature, in increments of 1 °C. RESULTS: The incidence of hyponatremia was stable at 0.3 per million person-days from -10 to 10 °C, but increased rapidly at 24-hour mean temperatures above 15 °C, with 2.26 hospitalizations per million days at the highest recorded temperature of 25 °C. Women and elderly carried the greatest risk, with an incidence of 35 hospitalizations per million days in individuals ≥ 80 years of age on the hottest days, corresponding to a 15-fold increase in incidence compared with cool days. A future 1 or 2 °C increase in mean temperature is expected to increase the incidence of hyponatremia by 6.3% and 13.9%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The risk of hospitalization due to hyponatremia increases rapidly at temperatures above 15 °C, indicating a threshold effect. Over the next decades, rising global temperatures are expected to increase the inpatient burden of hyponatremia by approximately 10%. Strategies for protecting vulnerable groups are necessary to reduce this risk.