[Development and validation of nomograms for predicting stroke recurrence after firstepisode ischemic stroke].
Nan Fang Yi Ke Da Xue Xue Bao
; 42(1): 130-136, 2022 Jan 20.
Article
em Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35249880
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the risk factors for recurrence in first-episode ischemic stroke survivors and establish a model for predicting stroke recurrence using a nomogram.METHODS:
We collected the data from a total of 821 first-episode ischemic stroke survivors admitted in the Department of Neurology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University from January, 2010 to December, 2018. R software was used for random sampling of the patients, and 70% of the patients were included in the training set to establish the prediction model and 30% were included in the validation set. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the factors affecting stroke recurrence, and R software rms package was used to construct the histogram and establish the visual prediction model. C-index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model for predicting stroke occurrence.RESULTS:
Among the 821 survivors, the recurrence rate was 16.81% at 3 years and 19.98% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis of the training set by Cox regression model showed that an age over 65 years (HR= 2.596, P=0.024), an age of 45-64 years (HR=2.510, P=0.006), a mRS score beyond 3 (HR=2.284, P=0.004) and a history of coronary heart disease (HR=1.353, P=0.034) were all risk factors for stroke recurrence. The C-indexes of the nomogram for the 3-and 5-year relapse prediction model were 0.640 and 0.671, respectively.CONCLUSION:
Age, mRS score and peripheral vascular disease are the factors affecting stroke recurrence in first-episode ischemic stroke survivors, and the nomogram has a high discrimination and predictive power for predicting ischemic stroke recurrence.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Acidente Vascular Cerebral
/
AVC Isquêmico
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Nan Fang Yi Ke Da Xue Xue Bao
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China
País de publicação:
CHINA
/
CN
/
REPUBLIC OF CHINA