A robust and parsimonious machine learning method to predict ICU admission of COVID-19 patients.
Med Biol Eng Comput
; 2022 Mar 30.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35353302
ABSTRACT
In this article, we discuss the development of prognostic machine learning (ML) models for COVID-19 progression, by focusing on the task of predicting ICU admission within (any of) the next 5 days. On the basis of 6,625 complete blood count (CBC) tests from 1,004 patients, of which 18% were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), we created four ML models, by adopting a robust development procedure which was designed to minimize risks of bias and over-fitting, according to reference guidelines. The best model, a support vector machine, had an AUC of .85, a Brier score of .14, and a standardized net benefit of .69 these scores indicate that the model performed well over a variety of prediction criteria. We also conducted an interpretability study to back up our findings, showing that the data on which the developed model is based is consistent with the current medical literature. This also demonstrates that CBC data and ML methods can be used to predict COVID-19 patients' ICU admission at a relatively low cost in particular, since CBC data can be quickly obtained by means of routine blood exams, our models could be used in resource-constrained settings and provide health practitioners with rapid and reliable indications.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Med Biol Eng Comput
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Itália
País de publicação:
EEUU
/
ESTADOS UNIDOS
/
ESTADOS UNIDOS DA AMERICA
/
EUA
/
UNITED STATES
/
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
/
US
/
USA