A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 6053, 2022 04 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35411061
ABSTRACT
Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI) 95-117) in March-June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI 28-47) in July-September 2020 (p < 0.0001), resurged to 141 (95% CrI 118-164) in October-December 2020 (p < 0.0001), and declined to 90 (95% CrI 73-108) in January-April 2021 (p = 0.0004). Given the median dwelling time, over 82% cases would progress from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic phase in 5-day quarantine. The time required for quarantine given two real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests depends on the risk of departing countries, testing and quarantine strategies, and whether the passengers have vaccine jabs. Our proposed four-compartment stochastic process and computer simulation experiments design underpinning Bayesian MCMC algorithm facilitated the development of precision strategies for imported COVID-19 cases.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Quarentena
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Taiwan