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Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities.
Cinner, Joshua E; Caldwell, Iain R; Thiault, Lauric; Ben, John; Blanchard, Julia L; Coll, Marta; Diedrich, Amy; Eddy, Tyler D; Everett, Jason D; Folberth, Christian; Gascuel, Didier; Guiet, Jerome; Gurney, Georgina G; Heneghan, Ryan F; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Jiddawi, Narriman; Lahari, Rachael; Kuange, John; Liu, Wenfeng; Maury, Olivier; Müller, Christoph; Novaglio, Camilla; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Petrik, Colleen M; Rabearisoa, Ando; Tittensor, Derek P; Wamukota, Andrew; Pollnac, Richard.
Afiliação
  • Cinner JE; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia. Joshua.cinner@jcu.edu.au.
  • Caldwell IR; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
  • Thiault L; National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278, CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005, Paris, France.
  • Ben J; Moana Ecologic, Rocbaron, France.
  • Blanchard JL; Private Fisheries and Environment Consultant, Lau, Morobe, Papua New Guinea.
  • Coll M; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
  • Diedrich A; Center for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
  • Eddy TD; Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) & Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, 08003, Spain.
  • Everett JD; College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Building 142, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
  • Folberth C; Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
  • Gascuel D; Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.
  • Guiet J; School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
  • Gurney GG; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, QLD, Australia.
  • Heneghan RF; Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Jägermeyr J; Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Jiddawi N; DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), Institut Agro / Inrae / Ifremer, Rennes, France.
  • Lahari R; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
  • Kuange J; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
  • Liu W; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
  • Maury O; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY, USA.
  • Müller C; Columbia University, Climate School, New York, NY, 10025, USA.
  • Novaglio C; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Palacios-Abrantes J; Institute for Marine Science, University of Dar Es Salaam, Zanzibar, Tanzania.
  • Petrik CM; Environment and Marine Scientist, New Ireland Province, Papua New Guinea.
  • Rabearisoa A; Wildlife Conservation Society, Goroka, EHP, Papua New Guinea.
  • Tittensor DP; Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China.
  • Wamukota A; MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, Sète, France.
  • Pollnac R; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 3530, 2022 07 05.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35790744
Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mudança Climática / Pesqueiros Tipo de estudo: Clinical_trials / Prognostic_studies País/Região como assunto: Africa / Asia Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Assunto da revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Austrália País de publicação: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mudança Climática / Pesqueiros Tipo de estudo: Clinical_trials / Prognostic_studies País/Região como assunto: Africa / Asia Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Assunto da revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Austrália País de publicação: Reino Unido