Survival prediction for patients with malignant biliary obstruction caused by pancreatic cancer undergoing biliary drainage: the COMBO-PaS model.
Surg Endosc
; 37(3): 1943-1955, 2023 03.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36261643
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Patients with pancreatic cancer-caused biliary obstruction (PC-BO) have poor prognosis, but we lack of tools to predict survival for clinical decision-making. This study aims to establish a model for survival prediction among patients with PC-BO.METHODS:
A total of 172 patients with PC-BO treated with percutaneous biliary drainage were randomly divided into a training group (n = 120) and a validation group (n = 52). The independent risk factors for overall survival were selected to develop a Cox model. The predictive performance of M stage, hepatic metastases, cancer antigen 199, and the Cox model was determined. Naples prognostic score (NPS), the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) for 1-month mortality risk were compared with the Cox model.RESULTS:
The Cox model was developed based on total cholesterol, direct bilirubin, hepatic metastases, cancer antigen 199, stenosis type, and preprocedural infection (all P < 0.05), which named "COMBO-PaS." The COMBO-PaS model had the highest area under the curves (AUC) (0.801-0.933) comparing with other predictors (0.506-0.740) for 1-, 3-, and 6-month survival prediction. For 1-month mortality risk prediction, the COMBO-PaS model had the highest AUC of 0.829 comparing with NPS, PNI, and CONUT.CONCLUSION:
The COMBO-PaS model was useful for survival prediction among patients with PC-BO.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Pancreáticas
/
Colestase
/
Neoplasias Hepáticas
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Surg Endosc
Assunto da revista:
DIAGNOSTICO POR IMAGEM
/
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China