Correlation between systemic immune inflammatory index and prognosis of patients with hepatic alveolar hydatid disease and establishment of a nomogram prediction model.

ABSTRACT

Background: To explore the evaluation value of systemic immune inflammation index (SII) in the prognosis of patients with alveolar hydatid disease, and establish a nomogram prediction model. Methods: Collect the clinical data of 351 patients undergoing hepatic alveolar hydatid surgery admitted to the Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University from January 2015 to December 2020, calculate the SII value, and use the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) to determine According to the optimal clinical cut-off value of SII, patients were divided into two groups with high SII and low SII, and the relationship between SII and clinicopathological factors and prognosis of patients with alveolar echinococcosis was analyzed. Establish a nomogram prediction model based on independent risk factors for patient prognosis, and evaluate the prediction accuracy and discrimination ability of the nomogram through the consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve. The result is through the use of bootstrapping validation with 1,000 re-sampling Method for internal verification. Results: The ROC curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of SII before operation 761.192, and patients were divided into low SII group (n = 184) cases and high SII group (n = 167) cases. The 1, 3, and 5-year survival rates of patients with hepatic alveolar hydatid in the low SII group and the high SII group were 98.90%, 96.90%, 86.50% and 98.20%, 72.50%, 40.30%, respectively. The survival rate of worm disease patients was significantly better than that of the high SII group, and the overall survival rate difference between the two groups was statistically significant (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression model analysis results showed that intraoperative blood loss (HR = 1.810, 95%CI 1.227-2.668, P = 0.003), SII (HR = 5.011, 95%CI 3.052-8.228, P < 0.001), Complications (HR = 1.720, 95%CI 1.162-2.545, P = 0.007) are independent risk factors for the prognosis of patients with alveolar hydatid disease. Draw a nomogram and include statistically significant factors in the multivariate Cox regression model to predict the overall survival rate of patients with alveolar hydatid disease at 1, 3, and 5 years. The survival probability calibration curve is displayed. The nomogram is compared with The actual results have a high degree of agreement. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram model in the modeling sample is 0.777, and the C-index in the verification sample is 0.797, indicating that the nomogram model of this study has good accuracy and discrimination. Conclusions: SII has a clear correlation to the prognosis of patients with alveolar echinococcosis. The nomogram prediction model constructed on this basis is beneficial to the clinically individualized analysis of the patient's prognosis.