History of heart failure and chronic kidney disease and risk of all-cause death after COVID-19 during the first three waves of the pandemic in comparison with influenza outbreaks in Sweden: a registry-based, retrospective, case-control study.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To explore how cardiorenal disease (CRD; heart failure and/or chronic kidney disease) impacted mortality in men and women hospitalised for COVID-19 during the first three waves of the pandemic in Sweden in comparison to previous influenza outbreaks. DESIGN: A registry-based, retrospective, case-control study. SETTING: Hospital care in Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: All patients in Sweden with a main hospital diagnosis of COVID-19 (January 2020-September 2021) or influenza (January 2015-December 2019) with previous CRD were identified in registries and compared with a reference group free from CRD but with COVID-19 or influenza. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Associated risk of all-cause death during the first year was analysed using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In COVID-19 patients with and without prior history of CRD (n=44 866), mean age was 79.8 years (SD 11.8) and 43% were women. In influenza patients (n=8897), mean age was 80.6 years (SD 11.5) and 45% were women. COVID-19 versus influenza was associated with higher mortality risk during the first two COVID-19 waves (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.62, p<0.001 and HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.44 to 1.61, p<0.001), but not in the third wave (HR 1.07; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.14, p=0.072). CRD was an independent risk factor for all-cause death after COVID-19 in men and women (men 1.37; 95% CI 1.31 to 1.44, p<0.001; women 1.46; 95% CI 1.38 to 1.54, p<0.001). At ages <70 years, women with CRD had a similar mortality rate to men with CRD, while at ages ≥70 years, the mortality rate was higher in men. CONCLUSIONS: Outcome after COVID-19 is worse if CRD is present. In women at ages <70 years, the presence of CRD attenuates the protective effect of female sex. COVID-19 was associated with higher mortality risk than influenza during the first two pandemic waves.