[Global liver cancer incidence and mortality and future trends from 2000 to 2020: GLOBOCAN data analysis].
Zhonghua Gan Zang Bing Za Zhi
; 31(3): 271-280, 2023 Mar 20.
Article
em Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37137853
ABSTRACT
Objective:
To compare the geographical differences and time trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality in different regions around the world so as to predict the future burden of liver cancer.Methods:
The incidence and mortality data of liver cancer in different Human Development Index (HDI) countries from 2000 to 2020 were collected from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. The joinpoint model and annual percent change (APC) were used to analyze the liver cancer global incidence and mortality as well as future epidemic trends from 2000 to 2020.Results:
ASMR for male liver cancer was increased from 8.0/100, 000 in 2000 to 7.1/100,000 in 2015 (APC = -0.7, 95%CI -1.2 ~ -0.3, P = 0.002), while ASMR for female liver cancer was increased from 3.0/100, 000 in 2000 to 2.8/100, 000 in 2015 (APC = -0.5, 95%CI -0.8 ~ -0.2, P < 0.001). The ratio of male to female ASMR was 2.671 in 2000 and 2.511 in 2015, indicating a slight narrowing of the difference in mortality between men and women. In 2020, the global ASIR and ASMR for liver cancer were 9.5/100 000 and 8.7/100 000, respectively. Male ASIR and ASMR (14.1/100, 000 and 12.9/100, 000, respectively) were 2 ~ 3 times higher than females (5.2/100, 000 and 4.8/100, 000, respectively). There were significant differences between ASIR and ASMR in different HDI countries and regions (P(ASIR) = 0.008, P(ASMR) < 0.001), and the distributions of ASMR and ASIR were very similar. New cases and deaths were expected to increase by 58.6% (143,6744) and 60.9% (133, 5 375) in 2040, with the number of cases and deaths increasing by 39,7003 and 37,4208 in Asia, respectively.Conclusion:
ASMR due to liver cancer worldwide has had a downward trend between 2000 and 2015. However, the latest epidemiological status and predictions of liver cancer in 2020 indicate that prevention and control will still be a major challenge globally in the next 20 years.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Hepáticas
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Zhonghua Gan Zang Bing Za Zhi
Assunto da revista:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China