The global burden and trends of four major types of heart disease, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The global burden of heart disease is severe and increasing in the coming years. This study aims to analyze the global burden of heart disease. STUDY DESIGN: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), and non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVHD) were selected and analyzed from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. METHODS: The prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years and their corresponding age-standardized rates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In addition, estimated annual percentage change was calculated to better assess epidemiological trends. In addition, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis using the Nordpred package in R program to predict death trends over the next 20 years. RESULTS: Globally, the prevalence of four heart diseases (RHD, IHD, HHD, and NRVHD) increased by 70.5%, 103.5%, 137.9%, and 110.0% compared with 1990, respectively. The deaths cases of RHD decreased by 15.6%, whereas IHD, HHD, and NRVHD increased by 60.4%, 76.6%, and 110.6%. Compared with absolute values, their corresponding age-standardized rates only showed a slight increase trend or even decreased in some areas with high sociodemographic index. In the next 20 years, the absolute values of deaths will continue to increase, whereas their age-standardized rates of deaths will flatten out. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the absolute values of heart disease have increased over the past 30 years and will continue to increase over the next 20 years. Targeted prevention and control strategies and measures need to be developed and improved to reduce this burden.