Development and validation of a population pharmacokinetic model to guide perioperative tacrolimus dosing after lung transplantation.

Background: Tacrolimus therapy is standard of care for immunosuppression after lung transplantation. However, tacrolimus exposure variability during the early postoperative period may contribute to poor outcomes in this population. Few studies have examined tacrolimus pharmacokinetics (PK) during this high-risk time period. Methods: We conducted a retrospective pharmacokinetic study in lung transplant recipients at the University of Pennsylvania who were enrolled in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG) cohort. We derived a model in 270 patients using NONMEM (version 7.5.1) and examined validity in a separate cohort of 114 patients. Covariates were examined with univariate analysis and multivariable analysis was developed using forward and backward stepwise selection. Performance of the final model in the validation cohort was examined with calculation of mean prediction error (PE). Results: We developed a one-compartment base model with a fixed rate absorption constant. Significant covariates in multivariable analysis were postoperative day, hematocrit, transplant type, CYP3A5 genotype, total body weight, and time-varying postoperative day, hematocrit, and CYP inhibitor drugs. The strongest predictor of tacrolimus clearance was postoperative day, with median predicted clearance increasing more than threefold over the 14 day study period. In the validation cohort, the final model showed a mean PE of 36.4% (95%CI 30.8%-41.9%) and a median PE of 7.2% (IQR -29.3%-70.53%). Conclusion: Postoperative day was the strongest predictor of tacrolimus exposure in the early post-lung transplant period. Future multicenter studies employing intensive sampling to examine a broad set of variables related to critical illness physiology are needed to understand determinants of clearance, volume of distribution and absorption in this population.