Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020.

ABSTRACT

The lifetime risk of cancer is a measure of the cumulative risk of cancer over a specific age range and has a clear, intuitive appeal. However, comparative assessments of cancer-specific risk across populations are limited. We used the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer from the obtained data from GLOBOCAN for 185 countries/regions for the year 2020, alongside all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The estimated global lifetime risk of cancer from birth to death was 25.10% (95% confidence interval (CI) 25.08%-25.11%) in 2020; the risk was 26.27% (95% CI 26.24%-26.30%) in men and 23.96% (95% CI 23.93%-23.98%) in women. Significant differences were observed in the risks between countries/regions within world areas and by the human development level. The lifetime risk of cancer was 38.48%, 25.38%, 11.36%, and 10.34% in countries/regions with very high, high, medium, and low Human Development Index, respectively. Globally, prostate and breast cancers were associated with the greatest lifetime risks among men and women (4.65% and 5.90%, respectively). The lifetime risk of cancer decreased with age, with a remaining risk of 12.61% (95% CI 12.60%-12.63%) from the age of 70 years. The lifetime risk from birth to death translates to approximately one in four persons developing cancer, with men and women having similar risk levels. The identified age-specific variations in cancer risk at the population level can provide crucial information to support targeted cancer prevention and health system planning.