Cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir for high-risk adult outpatients with COVID-19 in Japan.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Nir/Rit) for adult outpatients with COVID-19 from the perspective of a Japanese public healthcare payer. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness simulation was conducted comparing Nir/Rit for the outpatient treatment of high-risk COVID-19 patients to best supportive care (BSC) without antiviral or antibody drugs. The analytical model was divided into two phases the treatment phase, lasting 35 days from the start of COVID-19 treatment, and the post-treatment phase. Patients who survived the treatment phase were assumed to follow a general population survival curve. Expected costs and expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for both BSC and Nir/Rit were calculated for ages 40 to 80 to obtain the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The robustness of the results was evaluated through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). RESULTS: The ICERs for patients aged 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 were 18,854,276 Japanese Yen (JPY)/QALY, 8,482,034 JPY/QALY, 4,976,612 JPY/QALY, 2,636,096 JPY/QALY, and 1,597,783 JPY/QALY, respectively. In the deterministic sensitivity analysis, both the mortality risk during the treatment phase and the relative mortality risk with Nir/Rit had a high impact on ICER across all ages. In the PSA, when the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at 5 million JPY/QALY, the probability of the ICER being below the WTP threshold was 0%, 0.2%, 45.4%, 99.9%, and 100% at ages 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80, respectively. CONCLUSION: Nir/Rit is cost-effective for older individuals aged 60 and over but not for younger age groups.