Comparing overall survival between pediatric and adult retinoblastoma with the construction of nomogram for adult retinoblastoma: A SEER population-based analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma (RB) is a rare primary malignant tumor primarily affecting children. Our study aims to compare the overall survival (OS) between pediatric and adult RB patients and establish a predictive model for adult RB patients' OS to assist clinical decision-making. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzed data from 1938 RB patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, covering the period from 2000 to 2015. Propensity score matching (PSM) ensured balanced characteristics between pediatric and adult groups. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess prognostic factors, and selected variables were utilized to construct a predictive survival model. The Nomogram model's performance was evaluated through the C-index, time-dependent ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Following PSM, adult RB patients had lower OS compared to pediatric RB patients. Independent prognostic factors for adult RB OS included age, gender, disease stage, radiation therapy, income, and diagnosis confirmation. In the training cohort, the Nomogram achieved a C-index for OS of 0.686 and accurately predicted 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS with AUC values of 0.672, 0.680, and 0.660, respectively. The C-index, time-dependent ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA in both training and validation cohorts confirmed the Nomogram's excellent performance. CONCLUSION: In this study, adult RB patients have worse OS than pediatric RB patients. Consequently, we constructed a Nomogram to predict the risk for adult RB patients. The Nomogram demonstrated good accuracy and reliability, making it suitable for widespread application in clinical practice to assist healthcare professionals in assessing patients' prognoses.