Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases. METHODS: Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030. RESULTS: The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.