Integrating temporal decomposition and data-driven approaches for predicting coastal harmful algal blooms.
J Environ Manage
; 364: 121463, 2024 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38878579
ABSTRACT
Frequent coastal harmful algal blooms (HABs) threaten the ecological environment and human health. Biscayne Bay in southeastern Florida also faces algal bloom issues; however, the mechanisms driving these blooms are not fully understood, emphasizing the importance of HAB prediction for effective environmental management. The overarching goal of this study is to offer a robust HAB predictive framework and try to enhance the understanding of HAB dynamics. This study established three scenarios to predict chlorophyll-a concentrations, a recognized representative of HABs Scenario 1 (S1) using single nonlinear machine learning (ML) algorithms, hybrid Scenario 2 (S2) combining linear models and nonlinear ML algorithms, and hybrid Scenario 3 (S3) combining temporal decomposition and ML (TD-ML) algorithms. The novel-developed S3 TD-ML hybrid models demonstrated superior predictive capabilities, achieving all R2 values above 0.9 and MAPE under 30% in tests, significantly outperforming the S1 with an average R2 of 0.16 and the S2 with an R2 of -0.06. S3 models effectively captured the algal dynamics, successfully predicting complex time series with extremes and noise. In addition, we unveiled the relationship between environmental variables and chlorophyll-a through correlation analysis and found that climate change might intensify the HABs in Biscayne Bay. This research developed a precise predictive framework for early warning and proactive management of HABs, offering potential global applicability and improved prediction accuracy to address HAB challenges.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Proliferação Nociva de Algas
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Environ Manage
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos