Dengue Burden and Factors Influencing Severity in Honduras: A Descriptive and Analytical Study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease that accounts for a major morbidity and mortality in Honduras. METHODS: This descriptive study used an analytical component based on the data from the National Virology Laboratory between 2016-2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the classification of dengue without warning signs (DWOS), dengue with warning signs (DWS), and severe dengue (SD). RESULTS: Overall, 14,687 dengue cases were included; 50.1% had DWOS, 36.5% had DWS, and 13.4% had SD. Patients that were more associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were patients in the age groups 1-4 years (DWS OR 1.61; 95%CI1.33-1.94), (SD OR 1.52; 95% CI1.26-1.84), 5-9 years (DWS OR 2.01; 95% CI1.68-2.40), (SD OR 2.00; 95% CI1.67-2.40), and 10-19 years (DWS OR 1.55; 95% CI1.30-1.85) (SD OR 1.57; 95% CI1.31-1.88). The departments that were associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were La Paz (OR 6.35; 95% CI3.53-11.42), (OR 10.94; 95% CI5.96-20.08), Copán (OR 6.94; 95% CI5.05-9.53) (OR 7.33; 95% CI 5.35-10.03), Valle (OR 5.22; 95% CI1.25-21.82) (OR 10.71; 95% CI2.21-51.88). CONCLUSIONS: During the study period, dengue presented endemic behavior, with peaks consistent with the last two epidemics in Honduras in 2015 and 2019. The main factors associated with dengue severity were age< 19 years, male sex, and being from La Paz, Copán, or Valle.