[Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Jiangxi Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model].

ABSTRACT

Land-use changes are an important factor affecting the change in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the relationship between land-use changes and carbon storage provides reliable data support for optimizing regional land-use structure and maintaining regional carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, we first analyzed the land-use changes; then simulated the land-use pattern under three scenarios (i.e., natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios) in 2030 based on the PLUS model; and finally estimated the carbon storage change in the past (i.e., 1990-2020) and future periods (i.e., three scenarios in 2030) using the InVEST model, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics, and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The results showed① The carbon storage in Jiangxi Province showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total reduction of 4.58×107 t. The increase in the water bodies and construction land and the decrease in cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land was the major cause. ② The carbon storage under natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were 2.20×109, 2.24×109 and 2.19×109 t, respectively. ③ The carbon storage under the three scenarios showed similar spatial characteristics, wherein the high carbon storage was distributed in northern, northwest, and western regions, and the low carbon storage was distributed near the central region. These results can provide data support for future land spatial planning and improving the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Jiangxi Province.