Comprehensive assessment of refined greenhouse gas emissions from China's livestock sector.

ABSTRACT

Livestock and poultry products are an essential human food source. However, the rapid development of the livestock sector (LS) has caused it to become a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, investigating the spatio-temporal characteristics and evolution of GHG emissions is crucial to facilitate the green development of the LS and achieve "peak carbon and carbon neutrality". This study combined life cycle assessment (LCA) with the IPCC Tier II method to construct a novel GHG emissions inventory. The GHG emissions of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021 were calculated, and their spatio-temporal characteristics were revealed. Then, the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model was used to identify the main driving factors of GHG emissions in six regions of China and explore the emission reduction potential. The results showed that GHG emissions increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2021, following a gradual and steady trend. The peak of 628.55 Mt CO2-eq was reached in 2006. The main GHG-producing segments were enteric fermentation, slaughtering and processing, and manure management, accounting for 45.39 %, 26.34 %, and 23.08 % of total GHG emissions, respectively. Overall, the center of gravity of GHG emissions in China migrated northward, with spatial aggregation observed since 2016. The high emission intensity regions were mainly located west of the "Hu Huanyong line". Economic efficiency and emissions intensity were the main drivers of GHG emissions. Under the baseline scenario, GHG emissions are not projected to peak until 2050. Therefore, urgent action is needed to promote the low-carbon green development of the LS in China. The results can serve as scientific references for the macro-prevention and control of GHG emissions, aiding strategic decision-making. Additionally, they can provide new ideas for GHG accounting in China and other countries around the world.