Chronic exposure to drinking water nitrate and trihalomethanes in the French CONSTANCES cohort.

ABSTRACT

Trihalomethanes (THMs) and nitrate are widespread chemicals in drinking water. Chronic exposure has been associated with increased cancer risk despite inconclusive evidence, partly due to the challenges in long-term exposure assessment and potential exposure misclassification. We estimated concentrations of nitrate and THMs in drinking water using a public regulatory monitoring database (SISE-Eaux) for CONSTANCES, a French population-based prospective cohort. We obtained 26,322,366 measurements of drinking water parameters from 2000 to 2020. We excluded missing, implausible and duplicated measurements; we corrected or imputed missing geocodes of sampling locations; we calculated the annual median concentration of nitrate and THMs by surveillance area. To predict missing annual median concentrations, linear mixed models with random intercept using surveillance area as a clustering variable were developed for each region for nitrate and the four THM components (chloroform, chlorodibromomethane, bromodichloromethane and bromoform) separately. Concentrations in the nearest surveillance area from the household were merged per year among 75,462 participants with residential history geocoded for 2000-2020. Estimated concentrations resulting from this approach were compared with measured concentrations in 100 samples collected in Paris, Rennes and Saint-Brieuc in 2021. Median annual concentrations of total THMs and nitrate at study participants' homes for 2000-2020 were, respectively, 15.7 µg/l (IQR 15.2) and 15.2 mg/l (IQR 20.8). Among these, 35% were based on measurements for nitrate (16% for THMs), 44% (46%) were predicted using on linear mixed models, and 21% (38%) were based on distribution unit median values. Conditional R2 predictive models ranged from 0.71 to 0.91 (median 0.85) for nitrate, and from 0.48 to 0.80 for THMs (median 0.68). These concentrations will allow future association analyses with risk of breast and colorectal cancer. Our cleaning process introduced here could be adapted to other large drinking water monitoring data.