Potential impact of nirsevimab and bivalent maternal vaccine against RSV bronchiolitis in infants: A population-based modelling study.
J Infect Public Health
; 17(8): 102492, 2024 Aug.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39002465
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
A new monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab; Beyfortus®) and a bivalent prefusion RSV vaccine (Abrysvo®) for maternal immunization have been approved recently. This is a modelling study to estimate the potential impact of different immunization programs with these products on RSV-bronchiolitis.METHODS:
Population-based real-world data from primary care and hospitalizations were considered. RSV bronchiolitis dynamics in absence of these immunization scenarios were explained by a multivariate age-structured Bayesian model. Then, the potential impact was simulated under different assumptions including the most recent clinical trial data. Differences in endpoints, populations, and timeframes between trials make the two products' efficacy difficult to compare.RESULTS:
A seasonal with catch-up program, assuming a constant effectiveness of 79.5 % during the first 5 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 with nirsevimab, would prevent between 5121 and 8846 RSV bronchiolitis per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 77.3 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 976 and 1686 RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented depending on the uptake. A year-round maternal immunization program, with 51 % of effectiveness during the first 6 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 would prevent between 3246 and 5606 RSV bronchiolitis cases per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 56.9 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 713 and 1231 RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented.CONCLUSIONS:
Our results suggest that each strategy would effectively reduce RSV-bronchiolitis.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial
/
Vacinas contra Vírus Sincicial Respiratório
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Hospitalização
Limite:
Female
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Humans
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Infant
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Male
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Newborn
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Infect Public Health
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
SAUDE PUBLICA
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de publicação:
Reino Unido