A comprehensive DEMATEL-ISM model-based safety analysis of the Lianghekou earth-rock dam.

ABSTRACT

Earth-rock dam failures account for the largest proportion of all dam failure accidents. There are many factors inducing accidents in hydroelectric projects, and the relationships between them are intricate and complex. Therefore, it is crucial to explore the relationship between the influencing factors and identify the key factors leading to accidents. Through an analysis of the factors influencing earth rock dam failures, an index system for failure influence factors was constructed in this paper. Considering complexity and integration in influence factors analysis, a DEMATEL-ISM model (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory; Interpretive Structural Model) analysis method was employed to examine the internal relationship among various factors based on the influence degree between them, and a MICMAC model (Matrix Impacts Cross-reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification methodology) was introduced to analyze the hierarchical relationship between various factors. The results showed that The results show that the seismic capacity and flood discharge capacity of the dam body are the key influencing factors of dam safety during the operation of the earth-rock dams. The comprehensive method employed in this paper overcame the complexity of evaluation results and was capable of more directly presenting relationships of factors. As suggested by these results, the analysis model employed in this paper has great significance for preparing a flexible-efficient management scheme for earth-rock dams.