Construction and validation of a risk score system for diagnosing invasive adenocarcinoma presenting as pulmonary pure ground-glass nodules: a multi-center cohort study in China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Anxiety-driven clinical interventions have been queried due to the nondeterminacy of pure ground-glass nodules (pGGNs). Although radiomics and radiogenomics aid diagnosis, standardization and reproducibility challenges persist. We aimed to assess a risk score system for invasive adenocarcinoma in pGGNs. Methods: In a retrospective, multi-center study, 772 pGGNs from 707 individuals in The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University & Henan Cancer Hospital were grouped into training (509 patients with 558 observations) and validation (198 patients with 214 observations) sets consecutively from January 2017 to November 2021. An additional test set of 143 observations in Hainan Cancer Hospital was analyzed in the same period. Computed tomography (CT) signs and clinical features were manually collected, and the quantitative parameters were achieved by artificial intelligence (AI). The positive cutoff score was ≥3. Risk scores system 3 combined carcinoma history, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), maximum diameters, nodule volume, mean CT values, type II or III vascular supply signs, and other radiographic characteristics. The evaluation included the area under the curves (AUCs), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and negative predictive values (NPV) for both the risk score systems 1, 2, 3 and the AI model. Results: The risk score system 3 [AUC, 0.840; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.789-0.890] outperformed the AI model (AUC, 0.553; 95% CI 0.487-0.619), risk score system 1 (AUC, 0.802; 95% CI 0.754-0.851), and risk score system 2 (AUC, 0.816; 95% CI 0.766-0.867), with 88.0% (0.850-0.904) accuracy, 95.6% (0.932-0.972) PPV, 0.620 (0.535-0.702) NPV, 89.6% (0.864-0.920) sensitivity, and 80.6% (0.717-0.872) specificity in the training sets. In the validation and test sets, risk score system 3 performed best with AUCs of 0.769 (0.678-0.860) and 0.801 (0.669-0.933). Conclusions: An AI-based risk scoring system using quantitative image parameters, clinical features, and radiographic characteristics effectively predicts invasive adenocarcinoma in pulmonary pGGNs.