Feature engineering and parameter tuning: improving phenomic prediction ability in multi-environmental durum wheat breeding trials.

ABSTRACT

KEY MESSAGE Optimized phenomic selection in durum wheat uses near-infrared spectra, feature engineering and parameter tuning. Our study reports improvements in predictive ability and emphasizes customized preprocessing for different traits and models. The success of plant breeding programs depends on efficient selection decisions. Phenomic selection has been proposed as a tool to predict phenotype performance based on near-infrared spectra (NIRS) to support selection decisions. In this study, we test the performance of phenomic selection in multi-environmental trials from our durum wheat breeding program for three breeding scenarios and use feature engineering as well as parameter tuning to improve the phenomic prediction ability. In addition, we investigate the influence of genotype and environment on the phenomic prediction ability for agronomic and quality traits. Preprocessing, based on a grid search over the Savitzky-Golay filter parameters based on 756,000 genotype best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE) computations, improved the phenomic prediction ability by up to 1500% (0.02-0.3). Furthermore, we show that preprocessing should be optimized depending on the dataset, trait, and model used for prediction. The phenomic prediction scenarios in our durum breeding program resulted in low-to-moderate prediction abilities with the highest and most stable prediction results when predicting new genotypes in the same environment as used for model training. This is consistent with the finding that NIRS capture both the genotype and genotype-by-environment ( G × E ) interaction variance.