The dynamics of measles epidemics.

ABSTRACT

The interepidemic interval (T) of measles in London from 1647 to 1837 evolved progressively from 5-yearly to 2-yearly by 1800. Measles mortality was significantly ( p<0.001) cross-correlated with the annual wheat prices, a good index of nutrition although at a 2-year lag. Epidemics correlated with low autumn temperatures (p<0. 001). A linearised model of the dynamics of epidemics shows that T is determined by the product of population (N) and susceptibility (beta) and that the system will settle at its steady state unless the epidemics are driven. It is suggested that (i) the progressive change in T was caused by a rise in population size (N) and an increased susceptibility (beta) related to malnutrition and (ii) epidemics were driven by oscillations in low autumn temperature (p<0. 001) and by cycles of susceptible young children produced by malnutrition during pregnancy.