A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions

ABSTRACT

A model for the spread of infectious diseases among discrete geographic regions is presented that incorporates a mobility process that describes how contact occurs between individuals from different regions. The general formulation of the mobility process is described, and it is shown that the formulation encapsulates a range of mobility behaviour from complete isolation of all regions (no mobility) to permanent migration between regions. It is then shown how this mobility process fits into an SIR epidemic model, and two examples are given extending its use. The examples include a model for disease transmission in a population with two distinct mobility patterns operating and a model developed to describe a 1984 measles epidemic on the Caribbean island of Dominica(AU)