An analysis of West Indian mortality under 5 years (abstract only)

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses movements in cohort mortalities under 5 for Trinidad and Jamaica over the period 1901-51. This half century is divided into three parts 1901-20, characterised by high and generally unchanging mortality; 1921-41, characterized by marked declines in mortality; 1942-51, characterised by continued improvements in mortality. It is shown that declines commenced in aged 2-4 rather than in infant mortality, where improvements were slow to emerge. Moreover rates of decline continued to be greater for the age range 1-4 during the years of increasing mortality control ushered in after 1921. The latest data still show that declines in mortalities control over age 1 continue to exceed those in infancy. For 1942-51 rates of decline for Trinidad 4ql values amount to 3.8 per cent (males) and 1.5 per cent (females), as compared with rates of 1.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively for Qo. The rates studied can be utilised as simple approaches to three problems of mortality. They lend some support to the hypothesis that a cohort tends to be affected throughout its life span by it initial mortality. The hypothesis that high infant mortality tends to be followed by comparatively low rates at ages over 1 is not subtantiated for the period of rapid mortality decline (1921-41), though it is supported for the years 1901-20 when there was virtually no control of death rates. To the third problem raised - whether cohort mortalities tend to be more strongly associated than calendar year mortalities - the simple approaches adopted here permit only tentative answers (AU)