Modeling the HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the English speaking Caribbean

ABSTRACT

The study reported here examines the past and potential future impact of HIV/AIDS in 19 nations of the primarily English-speaking Caribbean. The authors use DemProj, a demographic projection model, to explore two different HIV scenarios. In the low scenario adult HIV prevalence stabilizes at 2 percent in the year 2000, and in the high scenario adult HIV prevalence stabilizes at 5 percent. By the year 2010, annual AIDS incidence exceeds 11 000 cases in the low scenario and 28 000 in the high scenario. In both scenarios, 70 percent of the cases are in young adults 20-45 years old and 12 percent are in children 0-15. Age specific mortality is more than doubled in the 20-40 age range in the low scenario, and more than quadrupled in the high scenario. The impact on death rates is also severe among children 0-10. In assessing the economic impact, the authors estimate that the total annual costs of the epidemic will approach US$ 500 million (in constant 1989 US$) or 2 percent of GDP in the low scenario, and will exceed US$ 1 200 million or 5 percent of GDP in the high scenario