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Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study
Juanjuan Zhang; Maria Litvinova; Wei Wang; Yan Wang; Xiaowei Deng; Xinghui Chen; Mei Li; Wen Zheng; Lan Yi; Xinhua Chen; Qianhui Wu; Yuxia Liang; Xiling Wang; Juan Yang; Kaiyuan Sun; Ira M. Longini Jr.; M. Elizabeth Halloran; Peng Wu; Benjamin J. Cowling; Stefano Merler; Cecile Viboud; Alessandro Vespignani; Marco Ajelli; Hongjie Yu.
Afiliação
  • Juanjuan Zhang; Fudan University
  • Maria Litvinova; ISI Foundation
  • Wei Wang; Fudan University
  • Yan Wang; Fudan University
  • Xiaowei Deng; Fudan University
  • Xinghui Chen; Fudan University
  • Mei Li; Fudan University
  • Wen Zheng; Fudan University
  • Lan Yi; Fudan University
  • Xinhua Chen; Fudan University
  • Qianhui Wu; Fudan University
  • Yuxia Liang; Fudan University
  • Xiling Wang; Fudan University
  • Juan Yang; Fudan University
  • Kaiyuan Sun; National Institutes of Health
  • Ira M. Longini Jr.; University of Florida
  • M. Elizabeth Halloran; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center; University of Washington
  • Peng Wu; University of Hong Kong
  • Benjamin J. Cowling; University of Hong Kong
  • Stefano Merler; Bruno Kessler Foundation
  • Cecile Viboud; National Institutes of Health
  • Alessandro Vespignani; Northeastern University
  • Marco Ajelli; Bruno Kessler Foundation
  • Hongjie Yu; Fudan University
Preprint em Inglês | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20026328
ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe COVID-19 epidemic originated in Wuhan City of Hubei Province in December 2019 and has spread throughout China. Understanding the fast evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy. MethodsWe collected individual information on 8,579 laboratory-confirmed cases from official publically sources reported outside Hubei in mainland China, as of February 17, 2020. We estimated the temporal variation of the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (Rt) at the provincial level. ResultsThe median age of the cases was 44 years, with an increasing of cases in younger age groups and the elderly as the epidemic progressed. The delay from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4.4 days (95%CI 0.0-14.0) until January 27 to 2.6 days (0.0-9.0) from January 28 to February 17. The mean incubation period was estimated at 5.2 days (1.8-12.4) and the mean serial interval at 5.1 days (1.3-11.6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei was highly variable, but consistently included a mix of case importations and local transmission. We estimate that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than three weeks with Rt reaching peaks between 1.40 (1.04-1.85) in Shenzhen City of Guangdong Province and 2.17 (1.69-2.76) in Shandong Province. In all the analyzed locations (n=10) Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold since the end of January. ConclusionOur findings suggest that the strict containment measures and movement restrictions in place may contribute to the interruption of local COVID-19 transmission outside Hubei Province. The shorter serial interval estimated here implies that transmissibility is not as high as initial estimates suggested.
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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: medRxiv Tipo de estudo: Experimental_studies / Estudo observacional / Rct Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Preprint
Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: medRxiv Tipo de estudo: Experimental_studies / Estudo observacional / Rct Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Preprint
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