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Can a COVID-19 vaccination program guarantee the return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle?
Juan Yang; Valentina Marziano; Xiaowei Deng; Giorgio Guzzetta; Juanjuan Zhang; Filippo Trentini; Jun Cai; Piero Poletti; Wen Zheng; Wei Wang; Qianhui Wu; Zeyao Zhao; Kaige Dong; Guangjie Zhong; Cecile Viboud; Stefano Merler; Marco Ajelli; Hongjie Yu.
Afiliação
  • Juan Yang; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Fudan University,
  • Valentina Marziano; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
  • Xiaowei Deng; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Giorgio Guzzetta; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
  • Juanjuan Zhang; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Fudan University,
  • Filippo Trentini; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
  • Jun Cai; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Piero Poletti; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
  • Wen Zheng; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Wei Wang; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Qianhui Wu; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Zeyao Zhao; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Kaige Dong; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Guangjie Zhong; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • Cecile Viboud; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
  • Stefano Merler; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
  • Marco Ajelli; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA;Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Soc
  • Hongjie Yu; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public
Preprint em Inglês | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21251108
ABSTRACT
AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 190 countries/regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remain a key question for policy makers. To address it, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable to keep the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce up to 99% of COVID-19 burden and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.
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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: medRxiv Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2021 Tipo de documento: Preprint
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
Buscar no Google
Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: medRxiv Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2021 Tipo de documento: Preprint