Predictive Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Sri Lanka using an Adaptive Compartmental Model: Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) Model

ABSTRACT

Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) is still spreading throughout the world despite various degrees of movement restrictions and the availability of multiple safe and effective vaccines. Modelling in predicting the spread of an epidemic is important for health planning and policies. This study aimed to apply a dynamic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deaths (SEIRD) model and simulated it under a range of epidemic conditions using python programme language. The predictions were based on different scenarios from without any preventive measures to several different preventive measures under R0 of 4. The model shows that more weight to personal protection can halt the spread of transmission followed by the closure of public places and interprovincial movement restriction. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding personal protective measures can have devastating effects on the local population. Strict adherence, maintaining and monitoring of self-preventive measures are vital towards minimizing the death toll from COVID-19.