Prediction of Short- and Long-term Death in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke Using Various Scoring Systems / 中国康复理论与实践

ABSTRACT

Objective:To compare the prediction of Ischemic Stroke Predictive Risk Score (iScore), Preadmission Comorbidities, Level of Consciousness, Age, and Neurologic Deficit (PLAN), Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) for short- and long-term death for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods:From August, 2015 to June, 2018, 323 AIS patients in emergency ward were included, and followed up 30 days, three months and a year after including. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive effects of iScore, PLAN, ASTRAL and THRIVE. Results:The all-cause mortality 30 days, three months and a year after including was 12.4% (40/323), 17.3% (56/323) and 25.7% (83/323), respectively. The area under curve (AUC) from more to less arranged as iScore, PLAN, ASTRAL and THRIVES. There was significant difference of AUC between iScore and THRIVE (Z > 1.990, P < 0.05), but not among the others (Z < 1.943, P > 0.05). Conclusion:iScore, PLAN, ASTRAL and THRIVE may predict short- and long-term death of AIS patients in the emergency well, and iScore is the best. However, the procedure of iScore is complex, it is recommended to use PLAN and ASTRAL for emergency.