Prediction of maternal mortality ratio in China based on analysis of data from 2010 to 2020 / 中华围产医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the changing trends in maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) and the main cause-specific MMRs in China from 2010 to 2020, evaluate the association between MMRs and pregnancy healthcare and predict the MMRs for the next five years.Methods:Data on MMRs, the main cause-specific MMRs, and maternal healthcare in China from 2010 to 2020 were collected from China Health Statistical Yearbook. Estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were used to analyze the trends in MMRs and the main cause-specific MMRs in China. Average growth rate was used to describe the trend of perinatal healthcare indicators, and spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the correlation between MMRs and perinatal healthcare indicators. GM (1,1) model was established to predict the MMRs for the following five years. Results:(1) From 2010 to 2020, the EAPCs were－5.16%,－6.24%, and－4.28%, respectively, indicating downward trends in MMRs in the whole nation, urban and rural areas ( t=－0.98,－12.42 and－8.96, all P<0.001). (2) From 2010 to 2020, the main cause-specific MMRs in China from obstetric hemorrhage, hypertension during pregnancy, amniotic fluid embolism, and liver disease were all in downward trends ( t=－12.42,－5.44,－3.98 and－3.63, all P<0.001). Except for the MMR from hypertension during pregnancy in urban areas (average growth rate =0.51%), all main cause-specific MMRs in both urban and rural areas decreased significantly, especially the MMRs from hepatopathy in urban and rural areas (average growth rate=－10.40% and－13.96%). (3) The nation wide MMR was negatively correlated with maternal system management rate ( r s=－0.80, P=0.003), prenatal examination rate ( r s=－0.97, P<0.001), postpartum visit rate ( r s=－0.82, P=0.002) and hospital delivery rate ( r s=－0.98, P<0.001). Negative correlations were also found between the MMR and hospital delivery rate in both urban ( r s=－0.82, P=0.002) and rural areas ( r s=－0.95, P<0.001). (4) The GM (1, 1) models for forecasting MMRs in the whole nation, urban and rural areas were established with an accuracy of level 1. The MMR was predicted to show a downward trend in the following five years. The MMRs in China were 15.86/100 000 in 2021 and 15.13/100 000 in 2022 through prediction, similar to the 16.1/100 000 and 15.7/100 000 as announced by the government. Conclusions:The overall MMR in China shows a downward trend, and it dropped faster in urban areas than the rural areas. In addition, it is predicted that the MMR will continue to decline in the following five years, but the gap between urban and rural areas will remain.