Measuring the impacts of aquatic animal diseases: the role of economic analysis.

Aquaculture is an important industry both economically and socially. The majority of this industry is focused on the production of aquatic animals, which may be substantially adversely affected by disease. Economic analyses may be used to inform decision-makers on the aquatic animal disease control choices that are economically optimal. Examples of such analyses are presented in this paper, ranging from basic cost estimates of disease impact to complex, spatial- temporal, bio-economic models. Regardless of the complexity of the analysis, there is a consistent need to collect and analyse good quality data measuring both the production and health of aquatic animals. This would require a variety of individuals and groups, including farmers, scientists and the government, to collaboratively contribute to this end. Given the necessary data, more sophisticated models may be better used to inform decision-making from the farm to the national level. Finally, economic analyses should not be limited to simple aggregated cost and benefit results but rather should include the social and gender impacts of financial decisions, as well as the potential externalities both within and among the various impacted sectors in order to optimise investment at both the farm and national levels.

Le secteur de l'aquaculture joue un rôle important aux plans tant économique que social. La majorité des filières du secteur sont axées sur la production d'animaux aquatiques, espèces susceptibles à des maladies à l'impact souvent considérable. Les décideurs ont la possibilité de recourir à des analyses économiques afin de sélectionner les stratégies de lutte contre les maladies des animaux aquatiques optimales au plan économique. L'auteur présente quelques exemples de ce type d'analyses, qui vont de l'estimation basique des coûts liés à l'impact d'une maladie à des modèles analytiques complexes, spatiotemporels et bioéconomiques. Indépendamment de la complexité de l'analyse, il est à chaque fois indispensable de collecter et d'analyser des données de bonne qualité concernant la production et la santé des animaux aquatiques. La réussite d'une telle entreprise nécessite la contribution d'un large éventail d'acteurs individuels et collectifs travaillant en collaboration, dont les éleveurs, les chercheurs et les instances gouvernementales. Dès lors que l'on dispose des données nécessaires, des modèles plus sophistiqués pourront être utilisés afin d'étayer les prises de décision depuis les élevages jusqu'au niveau national. Enfin, les analyses économiques ne devraient pas se limiter à de simples résultats agrégés des coûts et des bénéfices mais devraient prendre en compte les impacts sociaux des décisions financières et leurs répercussions sexospécifiques, ainsi que les effets externes potentiels sur et parmi les divers secteurs affectés, dans le but d'optimiser les investissements réalisés aussi bien au niveau des élevages qu'à l'échelle nationale.

La acuicultura es una actividad industrial importante, a la vez económica y socialmente. El grueso del sector está dedicado a la producción de animales acuáticos, en los que pueden hacer estragos las enfermedades. Los análisis económicos pueden ser utilizados por las instancias decisorias para decidir con conocimiento de causa acerca de las líneas de actuación económicamente idóneas para combatir las enfermedades de dichos animales. El autor presenta ejemplos de este tipo de análisis, que van desde estimaciones básicas del costo de las consecuencias de una enfermedad hasta complejos modelos bioeconómicos que integran la dimensión espaciotemporal. Ahora bien, sea cual sea el nivel de complejidad del análisis, siempre es necesario reunir y analizar datos de buena calidad que midan tanto la producción como el estado de salud de los animales acuáticos. Para hacer posible tal objetivo sería menester que diversas personas y colectividades, entre ellas productores, científicos y administraciones públicas, trabajaran de consuno con este fin. Habida cuenta de los datos necesarios, es posible dar un mejor uso a modelos más sofisticados para fundamentar los procesos decisorios a todos los niveles, desde la explotación hasta el ámbito nacional. Los resultados de los análisis económicos, por último, lejos de ofrecer meras sumas de costos y beneficios, deberían también dar cuenta de los efectos sociales o ligados al género de las decisiones de índole económica, así como de eventuales influencias externas que se dejen sentir en los diversos sectores afectados, o que se ejerzan de uno a otro de esos sectores, con el fin de optimizar las inversiones tanto en cada explotación como a escala nacional.

Global importation and population risk factors for measles in New Zealand: a case study for highly immunized populations.

As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk. People of European ethnicity made up the majority of measles cases. Age is a positive risk factor, particularly 0-2-year-olds and 5-17-year-old Europeans, along with increased wealth. Pacific islanders were also at greater risk, but due to 0-2-year-old cases. Despite recent high measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine immunization coverage, overall population immunity against measles remains ~90% and is lower in people born between 1982 and 2005. Greatest measles importation risk is during December, and countries predicted to be sources have historical connections and highest travel rates (Australia and UK), followed by Asian countries with high travel rates and higher measles incidences. Our results suggest measles importation due to travel is seeding measles outbreaks, and immunization levels are insufficient to continue to prevent outbreaks because of heterogeneous immunity in the population, leaving particular age groups at risk.

Invited review: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis of mortality and culling in dairy cattle.

Dairy industries and individual farmers are concerned about mortality and culling of dairy animals. This is because the timing and fates of animals that exit dairy farms have important animal welfare and economic consequences that reflect the conditions under which they are farmed and the efficiency of their production systems. Reports from a few countries have indicated increased incidence of mortality, and occasionally culling, of dairy animals in recent decades, and these changes have been associated with intensification of production systems. Dairy industries and farmers need benchmarks for culling and mortality against which they can compare themselves, as well as improved understanding of the extent of any change and of any associated factors. We reasoned that a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of scientific articles published between 1989 and 2014 would allow us to determine whether these reports were universal, to quantify any change over time, and to investigate whether production systems or study factors were associated with culling and mortality. From 3,275 articles retrieved from databases and manual searching of cited articles, 118 articles were appraised independently by 2 assessors, and 51 articles representing 54 studies were determined to be eligible for review and meta-analysis. We estimated that both the annual incidence risk (IR) and incidence density of mortality of cows had increased significantly from 0.02 per cow and 2.32 per 100 cow-years, to 0.04 per cow and 3.75 per 100 cow-years, an increase per decade of 0.02 per cow and 1.42 per 100 cow-years, respectively. We also estimated that the annual IR of culling attributed to low production had declined significantly from 0.07 to 0.05 and that the IR of perinatal, but not neonatal, mortality had increased significantly from 0.04 to 0.06 per decade. We found no evidence of change in overall annual IR of culling of cows over time or any association between study design factors and the IR or incidence density of culling or mortality. These findings provide benchmarks for describing culling and mortality, and should encourage farmers and researchers in countries with modern dairy industries to discover and implement management strategies to reduce the animal welfare and economic costs associated with these changes.

Economics for assisting policy-makers to take decisions about new and endemic diseases.

Animal health policy-makers are frequently faced with making decisions concerning the control and exclusion of diseases in livestock and wildlife populations. Economics is one of the tools they have to aid their decision-making. It can enable them to make objective decisions based on the expected costs and benefits of their policy. In addition, economics can help them determine both the distribution impact and the indirect impact of their decisions. However, economics is only one of many tools available to policy-makers, who also need to consider non-economic outcomes in their decision-making process. While there are sophisticated epidemic and economic (epinomic) models that are available to help evaluate complex problems, these models typically require extensive data and well-trained analysts to run and interpret their results. In addition, effective communication between analysts and policy-makers is important to ensure that results are clearly conveyed to the policy-makers. This may be facilitated by early and continued discussions between these two potentially disparate groups. If successfully performed and communicated, economic analyses may present valuable information to policy-makers, enabling them to not only better understand the economic implications of their policy, but also to communicate the policy to relevant stakeholders, further ensuring their likelihood of participating in the planned policy and hence increasing its likelihood of success.

Les responsables des politiques de santé animale sont souvent confrontés à la nécessité de prendre des décisions au sujet de la lutte à mener contre les maladies animales affectant les populations domestiques et sauvages ou de leur éradication. L'économie est l'un des outils d'aide à la décision à leur disposition. L'économie peut les aider à prendre des décisions objectives basées sur les coûts et les avantages attendus des politiques envisagées. Elle peut aussi les aider à déterminer l'impact de leurs décisions en termes de portée et d'effets indirects. Néanmoins, l'économie n'est qu'un des nombreux outils disponibles et les décideurs doivent également intégrer les résultats non économiques lors de leur processus décisionnel. Un certain nombre de modèles épidémiques et économiques (« épinomiques ¼) sophistiqués permettent d'évaluer des problèmes complexes ; ils nécessitent cependant un volume considérable de données ainsi que des analystes qualifiés pour les mettre en oeuvre et en interpréter les résultats. En outre, une communication efficace doit être mise en place entre les analystes et les décideurs afin de s'assurer que les résultats obtenus sont rapportés à ces derniers dans un langage clair. Ceci peut être facilité par des échanges précoces et permanents entre ces deux groupes potentiellement hétérogènes. Des analyses économiques bien réalisées et faisant l'objet d'une bonne communication fournissent aux décideurs des informations de qualité grâce auxquelles ils peuvent appréhender plus clairement les conséquences économiques de leurs politiques, mais aussi expliquer ces politiques aux principales parties prenantes, ce qui accroît la probabilité de les faire adhérer aux mesures planifiées et améliore d'autant les chances de succès.

Los planificadores de políticas zoosanitarias se ven con frecuencia en la tesitura de adoptar decisiones acerca del control y la exclusión de enfermedades en poblaciones de ganado o de animales salvajes. La economía es una de las herramientas en las que pueden apoyarse para ello, pues les ayuda a tomar decisiones objetivas basándose en los costos y beneficios previstos de determinada política. Además, la economía puede serles útil para determinar tanto el impacto distributivo como el impacto indirecto de sus decisiones. Sin embargo, la economía es solo una de las muchas herramientas de que disponen los planificadores, que en su proceso decisorio también deben tener en cuenta efectos de carácter no económico. Si bien para ayudarles a aprehender problemas complejos existen sofisticados modelos epidemiológicos y económicos (epinómicos), estos suelen requerir un gran número de datos, así como el concurso de analistas cualificados para aplicar los modelos e interpretar sus resultados. Asimismo, para que los resultados obtenidos por los analistas lleguen con claridad a los planificadores es importante que existan cauces eficaces de comunicación entre los primeros y los segundos, lo que puede verse facilitado si estos dos grupos, en potencia tan dispares, dialogan desde buen comienzo y de forma continua. Si se llevan a cabo y se comunican correctamente, los análisis económicos pueden ofrecer información útil a los planificadores, que les sirva no solo para aprehender mejor las consecuencias económicas de sus políticas, sino también para explicar determinada política a todos los interlocutores del sector, con lo cual estos serán más proclives a participar en dicha política y esta tendrá más probabilidades de éxito.

Within-farm spread of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar farms in Chile.

Spread of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) at the cage level was quantified using a subset of data from 23 Atlantic salmon Salmo salar farms located in southern Chile. Data collected from official surveillance activities were systematically organized to obtain detailed information on infectious salmon anemia (ISA) outbreaks. Descriptive statistics for outbreak duration, proportion of infected fish, and time to secondary infection were calculated to quantify the magnitude of ISAV incursions. Linear and multiple failure time (MFT) regression models were used to determine factors associated with the cage-level reproduction number (Rc) and hazard rate (HR) for recurrent events, respectively. In addition, the Knox test was used to assess if cage-to-cage transmissions were clustered in space and time. Findings suggest that within farms, ISA outbreaks, on average, lasted 30 wk (median = 26 wk, 95% CI = 24 to 37 wk) and affected 57.3% (95% CI = 47.7 to 67.0%) of susceptible cages. The median time to secondarily diagnosed cages was 23 d. Occurrence of clinical ISAV outbreaks was significantly associated with increased Rc, whereas increased HR was significantly associated with clinical outbreaks and with a large number of fish. Spatio-temporal analysis failed to identify clustering of cage cases, suggesting that within-farm ISAV spread is independent of the spatial location of the cages. Results presented here will help to better understand ISAV transmission, to improve the design of surveillance programs in Chile and other regions in which salmon are intensively farmed, and to examine the economic impact of ISAV and related management strategies on various cost and demand shifting factors.

Co-infection patterns of infectious salmon anaemia and sea lice in farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in southern Chile (2007-2009).

Infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) caused a large epidemic in farmed Atlantic salmon in Chile in 2007-2009. Here, we assessed co-infection patterns of ISAV and sea lice (SL) based on surveillance data collected by the fish health authority. ISAV status and SL counts in all Atlantic salmon farms located in the 10th region of Chile were registered monthly from July 2007 through December 2009. Each farm was categorized monthly according to its ISAV and SL status. A multinomial time-space scan test using a circular window was applied to identify disease clusters, and a multivariate regression model was fitted to quantify the association between disease-clustering and farm-management factors. Most of the identified clusters (9/13) were associated with high SL burdens. There were significant associations (P < 0.05) between management factors and ISAV/SL status. Areas in which good management practices were associated with a reduced disease risk were identified. The findings of this study suggest that certain management practices can effectively reduce the risk of SL and ISAV in the face of an epidemic and will be helpful towards creating an effective disease control programme in Chile.

Stochastic, spatially-explicit epidemic models.

Animal disease epidemic models are useful for better understanding both the spread and control of disease in a population. While it is advisable that models be only as complex as needed, it is often necessary to modify simplifying assumptions and thus increase model complexity to better reflect reality. Here, the author will examine the need for increasing model complexity by including randomness in a model and modifying the assumption of homogeneous mixing, by introducing a spatial component into the model. The costs and benefits of these changes will be examined.

Location of active transmission sites of Schistosoma japonicum in lake and marshland regions in China.

Schistosomiasis control in China has, in general, been very successful during the past several decades. However, the rebounding of the epidemic situation in some areas in recent years raises concerns about a sustainable control strategy of which locating active transmission sites (ATS) is a necessary first step. This study presents a systematic approach for locating schistosomiasis ATS by combining the approaches of identifying high risk regions for schisotosmiasis and extracting snail habitats. Environmental, topographical, and human behavioural factors were included in the model. Four significant high-risk regions were detected and 6 ATS were located. We used the normalized difference water index (NDWI) combined with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to extract snail habitats, and the pointwise 'P-value surface' approach to test statistical significance of predicted disease risk. We found complicated non-linear relationships between predictors and schistosomiasis risk, which might result in serious biases if data were not properly treated. We also found that the associations were related to spatial scales, indicating that a well-designed series of studies were needed to relate the disease risk with predictors across various study scales. Our approach provides a useful tool, especially in the field of vector-borne or environment-related diseases.

Risk factors associated with Tritrichomonas foetus infection in beef herds in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Bovine trichomonosis (BT) is a contagious disease, characterized by reproductive failure, embryonic losses, infertility, and abortions, which directly impacts the reproductive performance of cattle. In this cross-sectional questionnaire-based study, 56 veterinarians provided information on the geographic location and on the demographic, husbandry, and sanitary characteristics of 173 beef herds located in 26 (21%) counties of the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Herds rearing beef cattle (OR=2.5, 95% CI=1.0, 6.3), with low pregnancy rate in cows (

Cost-benefit analyses of supplementary measles immunisation in the highly immunized population of New Zealand.

As endemic measles is eliminated from countries through increased immunisation, the economic benefits of enhanced immunisation programs may come into question. New Zealand has suffered from outbreaks after measles introductions from abroad and we use it as a model system to understand the benefits of catch up immunisation in highly immunised populations. We provide cost-benefit analyses for measles supplementary immunisation in New Zealand. We model outbreaks based on estimates of the basic reproduction number in the vaccinated population (Rv, the number of secondary infections in a partially immunised population), based on the number of immunologically-naïve people at district and national levels, considering both pre- and post-catch up vaccination scenarios. Our analyses suggest that measles Rv often includes or exceeds one (0.18-3.92) despite high levels of population immunity. We calculate the cost of the first 187 confirmed and probable measles cases in 2014 to be over NZ$1 million (∼US$864,200) due to earnings lost, case management and hospitalization costs. The benefit-cost ratio analyses suggest additional vaccination beyond routine childhood immunisation is economically efficient. Supplemental vaccination-related costs are required to exceed approximately US$66 to US$1877 per person, depending on different scenarios, before supplemental vaccination is economically inefficient. Thus, our analysis suggests additional immunisation beyond childhood programs to target naïve individuals is economically beneficial even when childhood immunisation rates are high.

Data-Driven Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Dynamics: A Review.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) threatens animal health and leads to considerable economic losses worldwide. Progress towards minimizing both veterinary and financial impact of the disease will be made with targeted disease control policies. To move towards targeted control, specific targets and detailed control strategies must be defined. One approach for identifying targets is to use mathematical and simulation models quantified with accurate and fine-scale data to design and evaluate alternative control policies. Nevertheless, published models of FMDV vary in modelling techniques and resolution of data incorporated. In order to determine which models and data sources contain enough detail to represent realistic control policy alternatives, we performed a systematic literature review of all FMDV dynamical models that use host data, disease data or both data types. For the purpose of evaluating modelling methodology, we classified models by control strategy represented, resolution of models and data, and location modelled. We found that modelling methodology has been well developed to the point where multiple methods are available to represent detailed and contact-specific transmission and targeted control. However, detailed host and disease data needed to quantify these models are only available from a few outbreaks. To address existing challenges in data collection, novel data sources should be considered and integrated into models of FMDV transmission and control. We suggest modelling multiple endemic areas to advance local control and global control and better understand FMDV transmission dynamics. With incorporation of additional data, models can assist with both the design of targeted control and identification of transmission drivers across geographic boundaries.

Prevalence, location and symmetry of noncatastrophic ligamentous suspensory apparatus lesions in California Thoroughbred racehorses, and association of these lesions with catastrophic injuries.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Knowledge of the site distribution of ligamentous injuries facilitates clinical diagnosis of suspensory apparatus conditions. OBJECTIVES: To determine if lesions within the suspensory ligament (SL) and distal ligaments of the proximal sesamoid bones (DSLs) were associated with suspensory apparatus failure or metacarpal lateral condylar fracture in California Thoroughbred racehorses. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Suspensory apparatus specimens from 327 deceased Thoroughbred racehorses were sectioned within the SL body and branches, and oblique and straight DSLs. Purple lesions ≥2 mm in width were categorised as moderate and paler or smaller lesions as mild. Associations between moderate lesions and age, sex, racetrack and cause of death were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Moderate lesions were evident in 16% and milder lesions in 77% of racehorses. Moderate lesions occurred with similar frequency in SL branches and oblique DSLs. Moderate lesions were more likely to occur in horses that died as a result of suspensory apparatus failure (odds ratio [OR] = 4.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61-13.13; and P = 0.004) or metacarpal lateral condylar fracture (OR = 5.05; 95% CI 1.42-17.93; and P = 0.012) compared with horses that died from nonmusculoskeletal causes, and in horses aged ≥7 years horses compared with 2-year-old horses (OR = 5.33; 95% CI 1.44-19.75; and P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate lesions are common in the SL branches and oblique DSLs of racehorses, and may be associated with risk for suspensory apparatus failure and metacarpal condylar fracture. Monitoring health of the suspensory apparatus ligamentous structures may be a simple means of assessing fatigue in, and preventing more extensive injuries to, the forelimb suspensory apparatus and metacarpal condyles.

Persistence of cellulitis-associated Escherichia coli DNA fingerprints in successive broiler chicken flocks.

Avian cellulitis in broiler chickens is primarily caused by Escherichia coli. Previous research found that the E. coli isolates of cellulitis origin were unique to each ranch, suggesting that these E. coli were endemic within the ranch environment. To test the hypothesis that the E. coli associated with cellulitis are endemic in the litter of the broiler house, we designed a study to determine whether E. coli DNA fingerprints associated with cellulitis persist over successive flocks that are grown in the same house. In addition, we assessed the impact of different cleaning and disinfection strategies on this persistence. Two broiler houses were followed on each of five farms over 3-4 flocks. A total of 353 E. coli isolates from cellulitis lesions were analyzed in this study, and 314 of these isolates (89%) were DNA fingerprinted by PFGE. In each ranch, there were several DNA fingerprint patterns that were present over successive flocks, regardless of the cleaning and disinfection strategy utilized. Isolates persisted as long as 191 days, implying that these E. coli are capable of persisting in the broiler house environment for long periods of time. In addition, these E. coli isolates were associated with cellulitis lesions in successive flocks. Thus, the isolates of E. coli that are associated with cellulitis in broiler chickens appear to be endemic in the litter environment of the broiler house.

Infection of cattle with bluetongue viruses in Queensland, Australia: results of a sentinel herd study, 1990-1992.

Between 1990 and 1992, 47 sentinel herds of 10-20 cattle each were established throughout Queensland, Australia to monitor bluetongue virus infection. Sixteen herds at 12 locations seroconverted to bluetongue viruses during the study. Herd incidence rates ranged from 0.0 to 3.45 seroconversions per cattle-year at risk. The mean incidence rate was 0.29 seroconversions per cattle-year at risk (95% confidence interval 0.23-0.36), and the median incidence rate was 0.32 seroconversions per cattle-year at risk (95% CI 0.0-0.54). Only seroconversions to bluetongue virus serotypes 1 and/or 21 were detected in the study; no evidence was found of infection with other serotyped previously isolated in Australia (3, 9, 15, 16, 20, 23). Seroconversion to serotype 1 occurred more frequently than seroconversion to serotype 21. Seroconversion generally occurred between April and July, being most common in May, but varied considerably within each of the 3 years of the study. This study confirmed the presence of only serotypes 1 and 21 in Queensland and demonstrated the sporadic and restricted nature of bluetongue virus infection in the Queensland cattle herd.

Evaluation and extension of the cusum technique with an application to Salmonella surveillance.

The cumulative sum (cusum) technique was examined for its use in a disease surveillance system for detecting temporal clusters of events. Optimal technique parameters were derived for scenarios not previously considered. Simulation modeling produced results that evaluated deviations from predefined rate increases. The cusum technique was less prone to false alarms and more efficient at detecting large rate increases than previously reported. As demonstrated using data obtained from a Salmonella surveillance system operated by a state animal diagnostic laboratory system, the cusum technique could provide early warning of an epidemic problem.

Spatial and temporal clustering of Salmonella serotypes isolated from adult diarrheic dairy cattle in California.

Electronic records from the California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System between January 1, 1991, and June 30, 1998, were reviewed, and data on 593 Salmonella serotypes isolated from feces or intestinal contents of adult dairy cattle with diarrhea were analyzed to determine spatial and temporal clustering. A statistically significant clustering in space was detected with 10 (Typhimurium, Montevideo, Muenster, Anatum, Give, Menhaden, Kentucky, Agona, Derby, and Newport) of the 13 serotypes examined. Significant temporal clustering was also detected with 10 serotypes (Typhimurium, Montevideo, Muenster, Anatum, Give, Newbrunswick, Menhaden, Kentucky, Derby, and Newport). Six serotypes (Anatum, Menhaden, Montevideo, Muenster, Newbrunswick, and Newport) were significantly spatially and temporally clustered. A difference in temporal and spatial distribution patterns of some serotypes associated with diarrhea in adult dairy in California was found. Knowledge of the specific type of clustering, if present, should improve our understanding of the transmission and control of salmonellosis in the field.

Maximal predicted duration of viremia in bluetongue virus-infected cattle.

Central to the development of rational trade policies pertaining to bluetongue virus (BTV) infection is determination of the risk posed by ruminants previously exposed to the virus. Precise determination of the maximal duration of infectious viremia is essential to the development of an appropriate quarantine period prior to movement of animals from BTV-endemic to BTV-free regions. The objective of this study was to predict the duration of detectable viremia in BTV-infected cattle using a probabilistic modeling analysis of existing data. Data on the duration of detectable viremia in cattle were obtained from previously published studies. Data sets were created from a large field study of naturally infected cattle in Australia and from experimental infections of cattle with Australian and US serotypes of BTV. Probability distributions were fitted to the pooled empirical data, and the 3 probability distributions that provided the best fit to the data were the gamma, Weibull, and lognormal probability distributions. These asymmetric probability distributions are often well suited for decay processes, such as the time to termination of detectable viremia. The analyses indicated a > 99% probability of detectable BTV viremia ceasing after < or = 9 weeks of infection in adult cattle and after a slightly longer interval in BTV-infected, colostrum-deprived newborn calves.

Risk analysis of quarantine station performance: a case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California.

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

A statistical model for assessing sample size for bacterial colony selection: a case study of Escherichia coli and avian cellulitis.

A general problem for microbiologists is determining the number of phenotypically similar colonies growing on an agar plate that must be analyzed in order to be confident of identifying all of the different strains present in the sample. If a specified number of colonies is picked from a plate on which the number of unique strains of bacteria is unknown, assigning a probability of correctly identifying all of the strains present on the plate is not a simple task. With Escherichia coli of avian cellulitis origin as a case study, a statistical model was designed that would delineate sample sizes for efficient and consistent identification of all the strains of phenotypically similar bacteria in a clinical sample. This model enables the microbiologist to calculate the probability that all of the strains contained within the sample are correctly identified and to generate probability-based sample sizes for colony identification. The probability of cellulitis lesions containing a single strain of E. coli was 95.4%. If one E. coli strain is observed out of three colonies randomly selected from a future agar plate, the probability is 98.8% that only one strain is on the plate. These results are specific for this cellulitis E. coli scenario. For systems in which the number of bacterial strains per sample is variable, this model provides a quantitative means by which sample sizes can be determined.

Financial considerations of the sets technique in animal-disease surveillance.

Disease-surveillance systems are designed to detect the presence of (or an unusual increase in) the ill health of populations. Once the system correctly identifies an increase in a disease or condition, appropriate preventive action may be taken to alleviate associated losses. However, criteria for determining when an action should be taken are typically subjective. The purpose of this paper was to present and evaluate a technique for detecting clusters or increases in incidence rates: the sets technique. In addition, this technique was modified to permit evaluation of an animal disease-surveillance system, based on the system's detection capability as well as financial impact of the disease and its control.This technique was sensitive to the number of temporally clustered cases and the case-rate increase required to "signal an alarm". A system requiring more vs. fewer clustered cases needed to signal an alarm was always preferred financially for a rare disease (P(Epidemic)=0.001) and (with one exception) for a common disease (P(Epidemic)=0.2). Requiring more temporally clustered cases to signal an alarm, however, resulted in increased costs if the detection level were designed for a 6-fold case-rate increase, or if the true case-rate increase were 2-fold and the system were designed to detect a 2-fold increase of a relatively expensive disease (epidemic cost=$10000 vs. $1000). Case frequencies, costs and other assumptions used in this model may be modified to evaluate specific diseases and their associated surveillance systems.