Climate change: A driver of increasing vector-borne disease transmission in non-endemic areas.

In this Perspective, Shlomit Paz discusses the link between climate change and transmission of vector-borne diseases in non-endemic areas.

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions.

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.

High ambient temperature in summer and risk of stroke or transient ischemic attack: A national study in Israel.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether high ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range during the summer are associated with risk of stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA). METHODS: A time-stratified case-crossover study design was conducted. The study sample comprised all individuals aged ≥50 years who had a stroke/TIA reported to the Israeli National Stroke Registry between 2014 and 2016 during the summer season. Daily temperature data were retrieved from the Israel Meteorological Service. Conditional logistic regression models were used with relative humidity and air pollution as covariates. RESULTS: The sample included 15,123 individuals who had a stroke/TIA during the summer season (mean age 73 ± 12 years; 54% males). High ambient temperature was associated with stroke/TIA risk starting from the day before the stroke event, and increasing in strength over a six-day lag (OR = 1.10 95%CI 1.09-1.12). Moreover, a larger diurnal temperature range prior to stroke/TIA occurrence was associated with decreased stroke/TIA risk (OR = 0.96 95%CI 0.95-0.97 for a six-day lag). CONCLUSIONS: High ambient temperature may be linked to increased risk of cerebrovascular events in subsequent days. However, relief from the heat during the night may attenuate this risk.

Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation.

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.

The cholera epidemic in Yemen - How did it start? The role of El Niño conditions followed by regional winds.

The largest cholera epidemic of modern times began during the autumn of 2016 in Yemen, under ongoing war conditions. What exactly caused the epidemic to emerge is unclear. It is suggested that a combination of the impact of the strong El Niño of 2015-16 on cholera incidence in Somalia, followed by southwestern winds over the Gulf of Aden throughout the summer of 2016, contributed to the disease spreading through dissemination of cholera-contaminated flying insects (chironomids) from the Horn of Africa to Yemen.

Ambient temperature and age-related notified Campylobacter infection in Israel: A 12-year time series study.

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter spp. are the leading cause of foodborne infection worldwide, with a seasonal disease peak that might be affected by temperature increase. We studied the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly notified Campylobacter spp.infections. METHODS: Data on 29,762 laboratory-confirmed cases of Campylobacter infection for the period, January, 1999 to December, 2010 were retrieved from the Ministry of Health registry. To estimate the association between the number of weekly cases of Campylobacter infection and the national average temperature at lags 0-3 weeks, firstly, we used GAM models, and secondly two-segment piecewise linear Poisson regressions. The effect of temperature was adjusted for seasonality, long-term trends and holidays. RESULTS: We found a J-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and notified Campylobacter spp. CASES: For C. jejuni in all ages, the curve below the threshold was constant and the percent increase in cases for 1 °C above a threshold of 27 °C was 15.4% (95%CI: 6.7-24.1%). For ages 3-10 yr and > =26 yr the curve was constant below the threshold and positive above it; the percent increase in cases for 1 °C was 17.7%(95%CI: 6.0-29.4%) and 23.7%(95%CI: 11.6-35.8%), respectively. For ages 0-2 yr the curve was linear with no threshold and the percent increase for 1 °C was 5.1%(95%CI: 2.1-8.1%). For ages 11-25 yr the curve was always constant. Results for C. coli were similar. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that higher temperatures throughout the year affect Campylobacter spp. morbidity, especially in younger children. This should be taken into consideration in public education and health system preparedness for temperature increases as a result of climate change.

Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus. METHODS: With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population. RESULTS: External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.

Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of global public health importance. Transmission of WNV is determined by abiotic and biotic factors. The objective of this study was to examine environmental variables as predictors of WNV risk in Europe and neighboring countries, considering the anomalies of remotely sensed water and vegetation indices and of temperature at the locations of West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks reported in humans between 2002 and 2013. METHODS: The status of infection by WNV in relationship to environmental and climatic risk factors was analyzed at the district level using logistic regression models. Temperature, remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) anomalies, as well as population, birds' migratory routes, and presence of wetlands were considered as explanatory variables. RESULTS: The anomalies of temperature in July, of MNDWI in early June, the presence of wetlands, the location under migratory routes, and the occurrence of a WNF outbreak the previous year were identified as risk factors. The best statistical model according to the Akaike Information Criterion was used to map WNF risk areas in 2012 and 2013. Model validations showed a good level of prediction: area under Receiver Operator Characteristic curve = 0.854 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.856) for internal validation and 0.819 (95% Confidence Interval 0.814-0.823) (2012) and 0.853 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.855) (2013) for external validations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: WNF incidence is increasing in Europe and WNV is expanding into new areas where it had never been observed before. Our model can be used to direct surveillance activities and public health interventions for the upcoming WNF season.

Sustainable development goal 13 and switching priorities: addressing climate change in the context of pandemic recovery efforts.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had many deep social and economic impacts that go beyond health issues. One consequence is that the pandemic has made it even harder to mobilize the financial resources needed to pursue SDG 13 (Climate Action) as a whole and to fund climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in particular. This is especially acute in respect of the efforts to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement and by the recent decisions in Glasgow. This paper looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated poverty and undermined climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, as a result of the switches in priorities and funding. Using a review of the recent literature, an analysis of international trends, and a survey among climate scientists, it identifies some of the impacts of the pandemic on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts and discusses their implications. The findings indicate a decrease in funding to climate change research since the pandemic crisis. The bibliometric analysis reveals that a greater emphasis has been placed on the relationship between COVID-19 and poverty when compared to the interrelations between COVID-19 and climate change. Addressing climate change is as urgent now as it was before the pandemic crisis started, and efforts need to be made to upkeep the levels of funding needed to support research in this field.

Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation.

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)-risks and recommendations.

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has rapid population growth, large differences in socio-economic levels between developed and developing countries, migration, increased water demand, and ecosystems degradation. The region is experiencing a significant warming trend with longer and warmer summers, increased frequency and severity of heat waves, and a drier climate. While climate change plays an important role in contributing to political instability in the region through displacement of people, food insecurity, and increased violence, it also increases the risks of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Poorer and less educated people, young children and the elderly, migrants, and those with long-term health problems are at highest risk. A result of the inequalities among EMME countries is an inconsistency in the availability of reliable evidence about the impacts on infectious diseases. To help address this gap, a search of the literature was conducted as a basis for related recommended responses and suggested actions for preparedness and prevention. Since climate change already impacts the health of vulnerable populations in the EMME and will have a greater impact in future years, risk assessment and timely design and implementation of health preparedness and adaptation strategies are essential. Joint national and cross-border infectious diseases management systems for more effective preparedness and prevention are needed, supported by interventions that improve the environment. Without such cooperation and effective interventions, climate change will lead to an increasing morbidity and mortality in the EMME from infectious diseases, with a higher risk for the most vulnerable populations.

Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) linkage with residence near heavy roads--a case study from Haifa Bay, Israel.

The linkage between NHL morbidity and residence near heavy roads is analyzed among the Jewish population of the Haifa Metropolis, Israel. The addresses of 1436 patients (94.5% of all cases, 1995-2004) were geocoded. The geographic distribution of NHL patients was adjusted by the overall density of population in the study area. The analysis indicates steady decline in the "density adjusted" numbers of patients as a function of increasing road distances (P<0.01). Differences between genders/age groups were not found. The much higher occurrence of NHL in areas near main roads may be indicative of disease risks.

Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans.

One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.

Effects of land use type, spatial patterns and host presence on Leishmania tropica vectors activity.

BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease, caused by the infection of Leishmania parasites which are transmitted by the bite of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Leishmania tropica is transmitted by Phlebotomus sergenti and Phlebotomus arabicus while the main reservoir host is the rock hyrax. A marked increase in the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) caused by L. tropica has been detected in recent years in Israel; it is associated with infections which have emerged in new urban and rural foci. The objective of this study is to contribute to a better understanding of the preferred habitat, spatial activities and host-sand fly relationships of both species of vectors within various types of land use. METHODS: Using CDC-type traps, we investigated the activity levels of sand flies. A field survey was conducted in 2016 at Elifelet, an agricultural village characterized by various types of land use. Movement patterns of P. sergenti between rock-piles were investigated by using colour-marked sugar baits and analyses of recapture patterns. In 2017, a survey was conducted in the hilly Jordan River area, by comparing sand flies and rock hyrax activities in relation to the size of rock-piles and vegetation cover. RESULTS: Both sexes of both species were found to have a clear preference for rocky habitats over other land use types in rural landscapes. Movement patterns of P. sergenti were characterized by their high presence close to the rocks and an exponential decrease in their recapture, commensurate with the distance from the rocks. Host-sand fly relationships were found to have a higher correlation between rock hyrax activity levels for females than for males of both species of sand flies. Males exhibited the strongest association with the size of rock-piles. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest a strong affinity of both phlebotomine vector species to the rocky habitats of the Mediterranean areas. We suggest that rock-piles are associated with populations of rock hyraxes attracting female sand flies seeking blood sources. Rapid human population growth, coupled with intensive land-use changes and the creation of artificial rock-piles, which created potential habitats for both vectors and hosts in the proximity of many settlements, have increased the prevalence of L. tropica among the human population in the region.

Temperature effects on the activity of vectors for Leishmania tropica along rocky habitat gradients in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania tropica, transmitted by Phlebotomus sergenti and Phlebotomus arabicus, has been detected in Israel. This research strives to identify the complexity of temperature effects on vectors of L. tropica and to analyze seasonality and distribution across altitudinal levels. Sand fly trappings were conducted monthly during 2015-2016 in an endemic region for L. tropica in the eastern Galilee. Trappings were conducted in hyrax den sites across a broad topographic and climatic gradient. Using N-mixture models, we investigated the activity levels of sand flies as related to temporary and periodic climatic variables. We tested generality of climate-driven models using Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) values by comparing the 2015-2016 data with trapping data from 2013. P. sergenti activity was found to be positively and exponentially correlated with early night temperatures and more strongly correlated with average early-night temperatures for two weeks. P. arabicus exhibited a linear correlation with temperature. Climate-driven models for both species yielded lower RMSE values for the 2013 data, which validate the generality of the models. Considerable differences were found in slope coefficients of temperature effect on sand fly activity among sites related to elevation levels, implying differential local responses of sand flies to temperature.

Wind direction and its linkage with Vibrio cholerae dissemination.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of climatic events as causative factors for cholera epidemics is well known. However, examinations of the involvement of climatic factors in intracontinental disease distribution are still absent. OBJECTIVES: The spreading of cholera epidemics may be related to the dominant wind direction over land. METHODS: We examined the geographic diffusion of three cholera outbreaks through their linkage with the wind direction: a) the progress of Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor in Africa during 1970-1971 and b) again in 2005-2006; and c) the rapid spread of Vibrio cholerae O139 over India during 1992-1993. We also discuss the possible influence of the wind direction on windborn dissemination by flying insects, which may serve as vectors. RESULTS: Analysis of air pressure data at sea level and at several altitudes over Africa, India, and Bangladesh show a correspondence between the dominant wind direction and the intracontinental spread of cholera. CONCLUSIONS: We explored the hypothesis that winds have assisted the progress of cholera Vibrios throughout continents. The current analysis supports the hypothesis that aeroplankton (the tiny life forms that float in the air and that may be caught and carried upward by the wind, landing far from their origin) carry the cholera bacteria from one body of water to an adjacent one. This finding may improve our understanding of how climatic factors are involved in the rapid distribution of new strains throughout a vast continental area. Awareness of the aerial transfer of Vibrio cholerae may assist health authorities by improving the prediction of the disease's geographic dissemination.

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

Transmission Dynamics of the West Nile Virus in Mosquito Vector Populations under the Influence of Weather Factors in the Danube Delta, Romania.

Mosquitoes were collected in the Danube Delta during the active seasons of 2011-2013. For Culex spp. mosquitoes, the abundance was calculated. Culex pipiens (sensu lato), (s.l.) and Culex modestus pools were tested for the presence of West Nile virus (WNV) genome, and the maximum likelihood of the infection rate was established. Mean daily temperatures and precipitation were obtained for the closest meteorological station. A negative binominal model was used to evaluate linkages between the temperature/precipitation and mosquito population size. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to test the relationship between the temperature and the infection rate. A single complex model for infection rate prediction was also used. The linkages were calculated for lag 0 and for 10 days earlier (lag 1), 20 days earlier (lag 2), and 30 days earlier (lag 3). Significant positive linkages (P < 0.001) were detected between temperature and mosquito population size for lag 1, lag 2, and lag 3. The linkages between temperature and infection rates were positive and significant for lag 2 and lag 3. Negative significant (P < 0.001) results were detected between precipitation and infection rates for lags 1, 2, and 3. The complex model showed that the best predictors for infection rate are the temperature, 20 days earlier (positive linkage) and the precipitation, 30 days earlier (negative linkage). Positive temperature anomalies in spring and summer and rainfall decrease contributed to the increase in the Culex spp. abundance and accelerated the WNV amplification in mosquito vector populations in the following weeks.