Climate and health benefits of a transition from gas to electric cooking.

Household electrification is thought to be an important part of a carbon-neutral future and could also have additional benefits to adopting households such as improved air quality. However, the effectiveness of specific electrification policies in reducing total emissions and boosting household livelihoods remains a crucial open question in both developed and developing countries. We investigated a transition of more than 750,000 households from gas to electric cookstoves-one of the most popular residential electrification strategies-in Ecuador following a program that promoted induction stoves and assessed its impacts on electricity consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and health. We estimate that the program resulted in a 5% increase in total residential electricity consumption between 2015 and 2021. By offsetting a commensurate amount of cooking gas combustion, we find that the program likely reduced national greenhouse gas emissions, thanks in part to the country's electricity grid being 80% hydropower in later parts of the time period. Increased induction stove uptake was also associated with declines in all-cause and respiratory-related hospitalizations nationwide. These findings suggest that, when the electricity grid is largely powered by renewables, gas-to-induction cooking transitions represent a promising way of amplifying the health and climate cobenefits of net-carbon-zero policies.

Integrated causal-predictive machine learning models for tropical cyclone epidemiology.

Strategic preparedness reduces the adverse health impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms, referred to collectively as tropical cyclones (TCs), but its protective impact could be enhanced by a more comprehensive and rigorous characterization of TC epidemiology. To generate the insights and tools necessary for high-precision TC preparedness, we introduce a machine learning approach that standardizes estimation of historic TC health impacts, discovers common patterns and sources of heterogeneity in those health impacts, and enables identification of communities at highest health risk for future TCs. The model integrates (i) a causal inference component to quantify the immediate health impacts of recent historic TCs at high spatial resolution and (ii) a predictive component that captures how TC meteorological features and socioeconomic/demographic characteristics of impacted communities are associated with health impacts. We apply it to a rich data platform containing detailed historic TC exposure information and records of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular- and respiratory-related hospitalization among Medicare recipients. We report a high degree of heterogeneity in the acute health impacts of historic TCs, both within and across TCs, and, on average, substantial TC-attributable increases in respiratory hospitalizations. TC-sustained windspeeds are found to be the primary driver of mortality and respiratory risks.

Hair-Derived Exposome Exploration of Cardiometabolic Health: Piloting a Bayesian Multitrait Variable Selection Approach.

Cardiometabolic health is complex and characterized by an ensemble of correlated and/or co-occurring conditions including obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. It is affected by social, lifestyle, and environmental factors, which in-turn exhibit complex correlation patterns. To account for the complexity of (i) exposure profiles and (ii) health outcomes, we propose to use a multitrait Bayesian variable selection approach and identify a sparse set of exposures jointly explanatory of the complex cardiometabolic health status. Using data from a subset (N = 941 participants) of the nutrition, environment, and cardiovascular health (NESCAV) study, we evaluated the link between measurements of the cumulative exposure to (N = 33) pollutants derived from hair and cardiometabolic health as proxied by up to nine measured traits. Our multitrait analysis showed increased statistical power, compared to single-trait analyses, to detect subtle contributions of exposures to a set of clinical phenotypes, while providing parsimonious results with improved interpretability. We identified six exposures that were jointly explanatory of cardiometabolic health as modeled by six complementary traits, of which, we identified strong associations between hexachlorobenzene and trifluralin exposure and adverse cardiometabolic health, including traits of obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. This supports the use of this type of approach for the joint modeling, in an exposome context, of correlated exposures in relation to complex and multifaceted outcomes.

Exposure to different residential indoor characteristics during childhood and asthma in adolescence: a latent class analysis of the Danish National Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Many residential indoor environments may have an impact on children's respiratory health. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to identify latent classes of children from the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) who share similar patterns of exposure to indoor home characteristics, and to examine the association between membership in the latent classes and asthma in adolescence. METHODS: We included data on residential indoor characteristics of offspring from the DNBC whose mothers had responded to the child's 11-year follow-up and who had data on asthma from the 18-year follow-up. Number of classes and associations were estimated using latent class analysis. To account for sample selection, we applied inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: Our final model included five latent classes. The probability of current asthma at 18 years was highest among individuals in class one with higher clustering on household dampness (9, 95%CI 0.06-0.13). Individuals in class four (with higher clustering on pets ownership and living in a farm) had a lower risk of current asthma at age 18 compared to individuals in class one (with higher clustering on household dampness) (OR 0.53 (95%CI 0.32-0.88), p = .01). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that, in a high-income country such as Denmark, groups of adolescents growing up in homes with mold and moisture during mid-childhood might be at increased risk of current asthma at age 18. Adolescents who grew-up in a farmhouse and who were exposed to pets seem less likely to suffer from asthma by age 18.

Residential exposure to mold, dampness, and indoor air pollution and risk of respiratory tract infections: a study among children ages 11 and 12 in the Danish National Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The burden of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) is high in childhood. Several residential exposures may affect relative rates. OBJECTIVES: To determine risk of RTIs in children ages 11 and 12 by residential exposures. METHODS: We included children in the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) at ages 11 and 12. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for counts of RTIs within the last year by exposure to mold/dampness, gas stove usage, summer and winter candle-burning, fireplace usage, cats and dogs indoors, and farmhouse living. We also estimated IRR and 95% CI for RTIs for predicted scores of four extracted factors ('owned house', 'mold and dampness', 'candles', and 'density') from exploratory factor analyses (EFA). RESULTS: We included 42 720 children with complete data. Mold/dampness was associated with all RTIs (common cold: IRRadj 1.09[1.07, 1.12]; influenza: IRRadj 1.10 [1.05, 1.15]; tonsillitis: IRRadj 1.19 [1.10, 1.28]; conjunctivitis: IRRadj 1.16 [1.02, 1.32]; and doctor-diagnosed pneumonia: IRRadj 1.05 [0.90, 1.21]), as was the EFA factor 'mold/dampness' for several outcomes. Gas stove usage was associated with conjunctivitis (IRRadj 1.25 [1.05, 1.49]) and with doctor-diagnosed pneumonia (IRRadj 1.14 [0.93, 1.39]). Candle-burning during summer, but not winter, was associated with several RTIs, for tonsillitis in a dose-dependent fashion (increasing weekly frequencies vs. none: [IRRadj 1.06 [0.98, 1.14], IRRadj 1.16 [1.04, 1.30], IRRadj 1.23 [1.06, 1.43], IRRadj 1.29 [1.00, 1.67], and IRRadj 1.41 [1.12, 1.78]). CONCLUSION: Residential exposures, in particular to mold and dampness and to a lesser degree to indoor combustion sources, are related to the occurrence of RTIs in children.

Low-level exposure to lead and atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries: Results from the Swedish population-based cohort SCAPIS.

BACKGROUND: Lead exposure is associated with cardiovascular disease. Atherosclerosis has been hypothesized to be one of the underlying mechanisms behind this association. AIM: To investigate whether lead exposure is associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries in a large Swedish population-based cohort. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study using data from the population-based Swedish CardioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS), including 5622 middle-aged men and women, enrolled 2013-2018. Blood lead (B-Pb), measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, was used as exposure biomarker. The presence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid arteries (yes/no), total plaque area (mm2) and the presence of large plaques (>25 mm2) were determined by ultrasonography. Associations between B-Pb and the different outcomes were analysed using Poisson and linear regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Atherosclerotic plaque was present in 57% of the individuals, for whom the median total plaque area was 16 mm2 (range: 0.2-222). The median B-Pb concentration was 14 µg/L (range: 0.75-203). After adjusting for potential confounders, individuals in the fourth quartile of B-Pb (Q4) had a prevalence ratio (PR) for plaque of 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.16) when compared with the first quartile (Q1). A 10 µg/L increase in B-Pb concentrations was associated with an increase of 0.92 mm2 (95% CI: 0.14, 1.71) in total plaque area. The PR for large plaque was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.42 for Q4 vs Q1). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows an association between B-Pb and atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries providing some support for the hypothesis that atherosclerosis is one of the mechanisms underlying the association between lead exposure and cardiovascular disease.

Environmental exposure to melamine and its derivatives and kidney outcomes in children.

Melamine caused acute nephrotoxicity in a past food adulteration incident, but it is unclear whether and how widespread ambient exposure to melamine and related compounds might affect pediatric kidney health. We assessed cross-sectional associations between childhood exposure to melamine and its derivatives and biomarkers of kidney injury and health and explored potential heterogeneity by sex suggested by sex-dependent differences in renal physiology. We measured melamine and its derivatives ammeline, ammelide, and cyanuric acid (CYA) in spot urine samples collected from 192 children from an urban site (Seattle, WA) and 187 children from a rural site (Yakima, WA) aged 4-8 years in the Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth (GAPPS) Study. In addition, biomarkers of kidney injury were measured in the same urine samples, including albumin, total protein, KIM-1, NAG, NGAL, and EGF. We utilized linear regressions to examine associations between individual chemical exposures and kidney biomarkers. Interaction terms examined association modification by sex, as well as potential interactions between melamine and CYA. Despite comparable exposures, girls had higher levels of many kidney injury biomarkers compared to boys. A ten-fold higher melamine concentration was associated with a 18% (95% CI: 5.6%, 31%) higher EGF in the full sample, while ten-fold higher melamine was associated with a 76% (14.1%, 173%) higher KIM-1 in boys but not in girls (-10.1% (-40.6%, 36.1%), interaction p = 0.026). Melamine exhibited significant negative interactions with CYA in association with total protein and NAG that appeared to be specific to girls. Our results suggest possible associations between melamine exposure and markers of kidney injury that may be more pronounced in boys. These findings provide novel insights into melamine and related derivative compound health effects at low levels of exposure in children and emphasize the role of sex in mediating the relationship between nephrotoxicant exposure and kidney injury.

Exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances and longitudinal changes in bone mineral density in adolescents and young adults: A multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may impair bone development in adolescence, which impacts life-long bone health. No previous studies have examined prospective associations of individual PFAS and their mixture with bone mineral density (BMD) changes in Hispanic young persons, a population at high risk of osteoporosis in adulthood. OBJECTIVES: To examine associations of individual PFAS and PFAS mixtures with longitudinal changes in BMD in an adolescent Hispanic cohort and examine generalizability of findings in a mixed-ethnicity young adult cohort (58.4% Hispanic). METHODS: Overweight/obese adolescents from the Study of Latino Adolescents at Risk of Type 2 Diabetes (SOLAR; n = 304; mean follow-up = 1.4 years) and young adults from the Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS; n = 137; mean follow-up = 4.1 years) were included in this study. Plasma PFAS were measured at baseline and dual x-ray absorptiometry scans were performed at baseline and follow-up to measure BMD. We estimated longitudinal associations between BMD and five PFAS via separate covariate-adjusted linear mixed effects models, and between BMD and the PFAS mixture via quantile g-computation. RESULTS: In SOLAR adolescents, baseline plasma perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) was associated with longitudinal changes in BMD. Each doubling of PFOS was associated with an average -0.003 g/cm2 difference in change in trunk BMD per year over follow-up (95% CI: -0.005, -0.0002). Associations with PFOS persisted in CHS young adults, where each doubling of plasma PFOS was associated with an average -0.032 g/cm2 difference in total BMD at baseline (95% CI -0.062, -0.003), though longitudinal associations were non-significant. We did not find associations of other PFAS with BMD; associations of the PFAS mixture with BMD outcomes were primarily negative though non-significant. DISCUSSION: PFOS exposure was associated with lower BMD in adolescence and young adulthood, important periods for bone development, which may have implications on future bone health and risk of osteoporosis in adulthood.

Associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness with incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Northern Europe: The Life-GAP project.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged exposure to air pollution has been linked to adverse respiratory health, yet the evidence concerning its association with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is inconsistent. The evidence of a greenness effect on chronic respiratory diseases is limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and greenness (as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index - NDVI) and incidence of self-reported chronic bronchitis or COPD (CB/COPD). METHODS: We analyzed data from 5355 adults from 7 centers participating in the Respiratory Health in Northern Europe (RHINE) study. Mean exposures to air pollution and greenness were assessed at available residential addresses in 1990, 2000 and 2010 using air dispersion models and satellite data, respectively. Poisson regression with log person-time as an offset was employed to analyze the association between air pollution, greenness, and CB/COPD incidence, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Overall, there were 328 incident cases of CB/COPD during 2010-2023. Despite wide statistical uncertainty, we found a trend for a positive association between NO2 exposure and CB/COPD incidence, with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) per 10 µg/m³ difference ranging between 1.13 (95% CI: 0.90-1.41) in 1990 and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.96-1.45) in 2000. O3 showed a tendency for inverse association with CB/COPD incidence (IRR from 0.84 (95% CI: 0.66-1.07) in 2000 to 0.88 (95% CI: 0.69-1.14) in 2010. No consistent association was found between PM, BC and greenness with CB/COPD incidence across different exposure time windows. CONCLUSION: Consistent with prior research, our study suggests that individuals exposed to higher concentrations of NO2 may face an elevated risk of developing COPD, although evidence remains inconclusive. Greenness was not associated with CB/COPD incidence, while O3 showed a tendency for an inverse association with the outcome.

Chemical exposome and children health: identification of dose-response relationships from meta-analyses and epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Health impact assessment studies quantifying the impact of the chemical exposome on children's health generally consider a small fraction of the exposome. Synthetizing available dose-response relationships is an essential step to fill this gap. We reviewed the literature for dose-response relationships relating the chemical exposome with children health. METHOD: We focused on 78 substance-outcome pairs for which the level of evidence had previously been classified as 'likely' or 'very likely'. We searched for dose-response relationships for these pairs from meta-analyses and, if none was available, from single epidemiological studies, from which we conducted meta-analyses whenever possible. RESULTS: We identified dose-response relationships for 50 of the 78 prioritized substance-outcome pairs (64%). Dose-response relationships stemmed from meta-analyses for 21 pairs, from de novo meta-analyses for 1 pair and single studies for 28 pairs. Dose-response relationships were available for tobacco (fetal and infant death, congenital heart defects, birth outcomes, orofacial clefts, respiratory health), lead (asthma, cognition, delayed puberty onset and iron deficiency anaemia), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) (cognition, respiratory infections and birth outcomes), bisphenol A (cognition), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) (respiratory health), Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (neurodevelopment), DDT (hypospadias, cryptorchidism, miscarriage), pesticides (neurodevelopment), methylmercury (cognition), PFAS (immune system, birth weight, behavior, miscarriage), arsenic (cognition, birth weight, death, respiratory health), cadmium (cognition, birth weight), manganese (behavior), sodium (blood pressure) and thallium (birth weight). For 28 of the 78 substance-outcome pairs (36%), no dose-response relationship was available from epidemiological studies in children. CONCLUSIONS: We identified dose-response relationships for 50 substance-outcome pairs, corresponding to 20 chemicals and 17 health outcomes. These can be used to perform more comprehensive quantitative health impact assessment of the exposome on child health. We also identified 28 substance-outcome pairs corresponding to 'likely' or 'very likely' effects for which research generating dose-response functions in children would be relevant.

Environmental chemical-wide associations with immune biomarkers in US adults: A cross-sectional analysis.

Environmental chemical exposures influence immune system functions, and humans are exposed to a wide range of chemicals, termed the chemical "exposome". A comprehensive, discovery analysis of the associations of multiple chemical families with immune biomarkers is needed. In this study, we tested the associations between environmental chemical concentrations and immune biomarkers. We analyzed the United States cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2018). Chemical biomarker concentrations were measured in blood or urine (196 chemicals, 17 chemical families). Immune biomarkers included counts of lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, basophils, eosinophils, red blood cells, white blood cells, and mean corpuscular volume. We conducted separate survey-weighted, multivariable linear regressions of each log2-transformed chemical and immune measure, adjusted for relevant covariates. We accounted for multiple comparisons using a false discovery rate (FDR). Among 45,528 adult participants, the mean age was 45.7 years, 51.4% were female, and 69.3% were Non-Hispanic White. 71 (36.2%) chemicals were associated with at least one of the eight immune biomarkers. The most chemical associations (FDR<0.05) were observed with mean corpuscular volume (36 chemicals) and red blood cell counts (35 chemicals). For example, a doubling in the concentration of cotinine was associated with 0.16 fL (95% CI: 0.15, 0.17; FDR<0.001) increased mean corpuscular volume, and a doubling in the concentration of blood lead was associated with 61,736 increased red blood cells per µL (95% CI: 54,335, 69,138; FDR<0.001). A wide variety of chemicals, such as metals and smoking-related compounds, were highly associated with immune system biomarkers. This environmental chemical-wide association study identified chemicals from multiple families for further toxicological, immunologic, and epidemiological investigation.

Air pollution and incident sarcoidosis in central Pennsylvania.

Sarcoidosis is a chronic granulomatous disease predominantly affecting the lungs and inducing significant morbidity and elevated mortality rate. The etiology of the disease is unknown but may involve exposure to an antigenic agent and subsequent inflammatory response resulting in granuloma formation. Various environmental and occupational risk factors have been suggested by previous observations, such as moldy environments, insecticides, and bird breeding. Our study investigated the association of air pollution with diagnosis of sarcoidosis using a case-control design. Penn State Health electronic medical records from 2005 to 2018 were examined for adult patients with (cases) and without (controls) an International Classification of Disease (ICD)-9 or -10 code for sarcoidosis. Patient addresses were geocoded and 24-hr residential-level air pollution concentrations were estimated using spatio-temporal models of particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), ozone, and PM2.5 elemental carbon (EC) and moving averages calculated. In total, 877 cases and 34,510 controls were identified. Logistic regression analysis did not identify significant associations between sarcoidosis incidence and air pollution exposure estimates. However, the odds ratio (OR) for EC for exposures occurring 7-10 years prior did approach statistical significance, and ORs exhibited an increasing trend for longer averaging periods. Data suggested a latency period of more than 6 years for PM2.5 and EC for reasons that are unclear. Overall, results for PM2.5 and EC suggest that long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution may contribute to the development of sarcoidosis and emphasize the need for additional research and, if the present findings are substantiated, for public health interventions addressing air quality as well as increasing disease surveillance in areas with a large burden of PM2.5 and EC.

Air quality and kidney health: Assessing the effects of PM10, PM2.5, CO, and NO2 on renal function in primary glomerulonephritis.

BACKGROUND: While extensive studies have elucidated the relationships between exposure to air pollution and chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disorders and diabetes, the intricate effects on specific kidney diseases, notably primary glomerulonephritis (GN)-an immune-mediated kidney ailment-are less well understood. Considering the escalating incidence of GN and conspicuous lack of investigative focus on its association with air quality, investigation is dedicated to examining the long-term effects of air pollutants on renal function in individuals diagnosed with primary GN. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis was conducted on 1394 primary GN patients who were diagnosed at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital and Seoul National University Hospital. Utilizing time-varying Cox regression and linear mixed models (LMM), we examined the effect of yearly average air pollution levels on renal function deterioration (RFD) and change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In this context, RFD is defined as sustained eGFR of less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2. RESULTS: During a mean observation period of 5.1 years, 350 participants developed RFD. Significantly, elevated interquartile range (IQR) levels of air pollutants-including PM10 (particles ≤10 micrometers, HR 1.389, 95 % CI 1.2-1.606), PM2.5 (particles ≤2.5 micrometers, HR 1.353, 95 % CI 1.162-1.575), CO (carbon monoxide, HR 1.264, 95 % CI 1.102-1.451), and NO2 (nitrogen dioxide, HR 1.179, 95 % CI 1.021-1.361)-were significantly associated with an increased risk of RFD, after factoring in demographic and health variables. Moreover, exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 was associated with decreased eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a substantial link between air pollution exposure and renal function impairment in primary GN, accentuating the significance of environmental determinants in the pathology of immune-mediated kidney diseases.

Children With Cardiac Disease and Heat Exposure: Catastrophic Converging Consequences?

The detrimental impact of extreme heat exposure on the health and well-being of children is widely acknowledged. The direct and indirect effects of climate change have led to an increased risk of certain cardiovascular events which may be particularly harmful to children who are born with, or develop, heart disease. PURPOSE: To highlight the worrying paucity of investigative research aimed at differentiating how higher ambient temperatures further tax an already compromised cardiovascular system in children. METHODS: This commentary describes basic thermoregulatory concepts relevant to the healthy pediatric population and summarizes common heart diseases observed in this population. RESULTS: We describe how heat stress and exercise are important factors clinicians should more readily consider when treating children with heart disease. Countermeasures to physical inactivity are suggested for children, parents, clinicians, and policymakers to consider. CONCLUSIONS: As sudden, excessive heat exposures continue to impact our rapidly warming world, vulnerable populations like children with underlying heart conditions are at greater heat health risk, especially when coupled with the negative physical activity and fitness trends observed worldwide.

A Long Way from Steubenville: Environmental Epidemiology in a Rapidly Changing World.

This commentary focuses on research that has long been at the core of environmental epidemiology: studies of the health effects of air pollution. It highlights publications in the American Journal of Epidemiology going back more than 50 years that have contributed to the debate about the validity of this research and its meaning for public policy. Technological advances have greatly expanded the toolbox of environmental epidemiologists in terms of measuring and analyzing complex exposures in large populations. Yet, discussions about biases in estimating air pollution health effects have always been and remain intense. Epidemiologists have brought new methodologies and concepts to this research, alleviating some but not all concerns. Here, the focus is on seminal epidemiologic work that established valid links between air pollution exposures and health outcomes and generated data for environmental policies and prevention. With this commentary, I hope to inspire epidemiologists to address many more of the burning environmental health questions-wildfires included-with a similar scientific doggedness. The rapidly changing conditions of our planet are challenging us to innovate and offer solutions, albeit perhaps a little bit faster this time around.

Immortal Time Bias With Time-Varying Exposures in Environmental Epidemiology: A Case Study in Lung Cancer Survival.

Immortal time bias is a well-recognized bias in clinical epidemiology but is rarely discussed in environmental epidemiology. Under the target trial framework, this bias is formally conceptualized as a misalignment between the start of study follow-up (time 0) and treatment assignment. This misalignment can occur when attained duration of follow-up is encoded into treatment assignment using minimums, maximums, or averages. The bias can be exacerbated in the presence of time trends commonly found in environmental exposures. Using lung cancer cases from the California Cancer Registry (2000-2010) linked with estimated concentrations of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), we replicated previous studies that averaged PM2.5 exposure over follow-up in a time-to-event model. We compared this approach with one that ensures alignment between time 0 and treatment assignment, a discrete-time approach. In the former approach, the estimated overall hazard ratio for a 5-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.38 (95% confidence interval: 1.36, 1.40). Under the discrete-time approach, the estimated pooled odds ratio was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.98, 1.00). We conclude that the strong estimated effect in the former approach was likely driven by immortal time bias, due to misalignment at time 0. Our findings highlight the importance of appropriately conceptualizing a time-varying environmental exposure under the target trial framework to avoid introducing preventable systematic errors.

Outdoor light at night and risk of endometrial cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study.

PURPOSE: Outdoor light at night (LAN) can result in circadian disruption and hormone dysregulation and is a suspected risk factor for some cancers. Our study is the first to evaluate the association between LAN and risk of endometrial cancer, a malignancy with known relationship to circulating estrogen levels. METHODS: We linked enrollment addresses (1996) for 97,677 postmenopausal women in the prospective NIH-AARP cohort to satellite imagery of nighttime radiance to estimate LAN exposure. Multivariable Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for LAN quintiles and incident endometrial cancer overall (1,669 cases) and endometrioid adenocarcinomas (991 cases) through follow-up (2011). We tested for interaction with established endometrial cancer risk factors. RESULTS: We observed no association for endometrial cancer overall (HRQ1vsQ5 0.92; 95% CI 0.78-1.08; p trend = 0.67) or endometrioid adenocarcinoma (HRQ1vsQ5 1.01; 95% CI 0.82-1.24; p trend = 0.36). Although body mass index and menopause hormone therapy were both associated with risk, there was no evidence of interaction with LAN (p interactions = 0.52 and 0.50, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our study did not find an association between outdoor LAN and endometrial cancer risk, but was limited by the inability to account for individual-level exposure determinants. Future studies should consider approaches to improve characterization of personal exposures to light.

Heavy metals and diminished ovarian reserve: single-exposure and mixture analyses amongst women consulting in French fertility centres.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Do heavy metals affect the risk of diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) in women of reproductive age? DESIGN: A total of 139 cases and 153 controls were included between 2016 and 2020. The participants were aged between 18 and 40 years and attended consultations for couple infertility in one of four fertility centres in western France. Cases of DOR were defined as women with an antral follicle count less than 7, anti-Müllerian hormone levels 1.1 ng/ml or less, or both. Controls were frequency matched on age groups and centres, and were women with normal ovarian reserve evaluations, no malformations and menstrual cycles between 26 and 35 days. Heavy metals (lead, mercury, cadmium and chromium) were measured in whole blood at inclusion. Single-exposure associations were examined with multivariable logistic regressions adjusted on potential confounders. Mixture effects were investigated with quantile g-computation and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR). RESULTS: Chromium as a continuous exposure was significantly associated with DOR in unadjusted models (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.13) but the association was no longer significant when confounders were controlled for (adjusted OR 2.75, 95% CI 0.88 to 8.60). Similarly, a statistically significant association was observed for the unadjusted second tercile of cadmium exposure (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.30); however, this association was no longer statistically significant after adjustment. None of the other associations tested were statistically significant. Quantile g-computation and BKMR both yielded no significant change of risk of DOR for the mixture of metals, with no evidence of interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Weak signals that some heavy metals could be associated with DOR were detected. These findings should be replicated in other studies.

Association between ambient air pollutants and upper respiratory tract infection and pneumonia disease burden in Thailand from 2000 to 2022: a high frequency ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: A pertinent risk factor of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and pneumonia is the exposure to major ambient air pollutants, with short term exposures to different air pollutants being shown to exacerbate several respiratory conditions. METHODS: Here, using disease surveillance data comprising of reported disease case counts at the province level, high frequency ambient air pollutant and climate data in Thailand, we delineated the association between ambient air pollution and URTI/Pneumonia burden in Thailand from 2000 - 2022. We developed mixed-data sampling methods and estimation strategies to account for the high frequency nature of ambient air pollutant concentration data. This was used to evaluate the effects past concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) and the number of disease case count, after controlling for the confounding meteorological and disease factors. RESULTS: Across provinces, we found that past increases in CO, SO2, and PM2.5 concentration were associated to changes in URTI and pneumonia case counts, but the direction of their association mixed. The contributive burden of past ambient air pollutants on contemporaneous disease burden was also found to be larger than meteorological factors, and comparable to that of disease related factors. CONCLUSIONS: By developing a novel statistical methodology, we prevented subjective variable selection and discretization bias to detect associations, and provided a robust estimate on the effect of ambient air pollutants on URTI and pneumonia burden over a large spatial scale.

Exposure to residential mold and dampness and the associations with respiratory tract infections and symptoms thereof in children in high income countries: A systematic review and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Multiple reviews have been conducted on the associations between residential mold and dampness and respiratory outcomes in children, with few specifically investigating respiratory tract infections (RTIs). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to review and synthesize the available epidemiological literature on mold and dampness and risk of RTIs and respiratory symptoms compatible with RTIs in children living in high-income countries. METHOD: We performed a systematic search of literature available from MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science for observational studies. We conducted meta-analyses using two-level random effects (RE) and multi-level random effects (ML) models for contrasts of three exposure and three outcome categories, including multiple estimates reported by single studies. We report central estimates for pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI).We conducted a risk of bias assessment using the Joanna Briggs Initiative (JBI) checklists for cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies. We additionally report on cumulative meta-analyses, leave-one-out analyses of single estimates, subgroup analyses by study quality and study design and inclusion of all effect estimates. RESULTS: Of the 932 studies initially screened by title and abstract, we included 30 studies with 267 effect estimates that met the inclusion criteria. Most were cross-sectional (n = 22), with fewer cohort (n = 5) and case-control (n = 3) studies. Most of the studies were according to the bias assessment of poor or fair quality (n = 24). The main meta-analyses generally provided similar results regardless of statistical model and central estimates ranged from OR 1.28 (95 % CI; 1.08, 1.53) for dampness and RTIs to OR 1.76 (95 % CI; 1.64, 1.88) for mold and respiratory symptoms. Most analyses were of moderate heterogeneity. Funnel plots did not indicate strong publication bias. CONCLUSION: Our results are compatible with a weak to moderate effect of residential mold and or dampness on risk of RTIs in children in high-income countries. However, these results are based primarily on cross-sectional studies.