Estimating Lithium Concentrations in Groundwater Used as Drinking Water for the Conterminous United States.

Lithium (Li) concentrations in drinking-water supplies are not regulated in the United States; however, Li is included in the 2022 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency list of unregulated contaminants for monitoring by public water systems. Li is used pharmaceutically to treat bipolar disorder, and studies have linked its occurrence in drinking water to human-health outcomes. An extreme gradient boosting model was developed to estimate geogenic Li in drinking-water supply wells throughout the conterminous United States. The model was trained using Li measurements from ∼13,500 wells and predictor variables related to its natural occurrence in groundwater. The model predicts the probability of Li in four concentration classifications, ≤4 µg/L, >4 to ≤10 µg/L, >10 to ≤30 µg/L, and >30 µg/L. Model predictions were evaluated using wells held out from model training and with new data and have an accuracy of 47-65%. Important predictor variables include average annual precipitation, well depth, and soil geochemistry. Model predictions were mapped at a spatial resolution of 1 km2 and represent well depths associated with public- and private-supply wells. This model was developed by hydrologists and public-health researchers to estimate Li exposure from drinking water and compare to national-scale human-health data for a better understanding of dose-response to low (<30 µg/L) concentrations of Li.

Prioritizing water availability study settings to address geogenic contaminants and related societal factors.

Water availability for human and ecological uses depends on both water quantity and water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing strategies for prioritizing regional-scale and watershed basin-scale studies of water availability across the nation. Previous USGS ranking processes for basin-scale studies incorporated primarily water quantity factors but are now considering additional water quality factors. This study presents a ranking based on the potential impacts of geogenic constituents on water quality and consideration of societal factors related to water quality. High-concentration geogenic constituents, including trace elements and radionuclides, are among the most prevalent contaminants limiting water availability in the USA and globally. Geogenic constituents commonly occur in groundwater because of subsurface water-rock interactions, and their distributions are controlled by complex geochemical processes. Geogenic constituent mobility can also be affected by human activities (e.g., mining, energy production, irrigation, and pumping). Societal factors and relations to drinking water sources and water quality information are often overlooked when evaluating research priorities. Sociodemographic characteristics, data gaps resulting from historical data-collection disparities, and infrastructure condition/age are examples of factors to consider regarding environmental justice. This paper presents approaches for ranking and prioritizing potential basin-scale study areas across the contiguous USA by considering a suite of conventional physical and geochemical variables related to geogenic constituents, with and without considering variables related to societal factors. Simultaneous consideration of societal and conventional factors could provide decision makers with more diverse, interdisciplinary tools to increase equity and reduce bias in prioritizing focused research areas and future water availability studies.

Cross-sectional associations between drinking water arsenic and urinary inorganic arsenic in the United States: NHANES 2003-2014.

BACKGROUND: Inorganic arsenic is a potent carcinogen and toxicant associated with numerous adverse health outcomes. The contribution of drinking water from private wells and regulated community water systems (CWSs) to total inorganic arsenic exposure is not clear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between drinking water arsenic estimates and urinary arsenic concentrations in the 2003-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). METHODS: We evaluated 11,088 participants from the 2003-2014 NHANES cycles. For each participant, we assigned private well and CWS arsenic levels according to county of residence using estimates previously derived by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Geological Survey. We used recalibrated urinary dimethylarsinate (rDMA) to reflect the internal dose of estimated water arsenic by applying a previously validated, residual-based method that removes the contribution of dietary arsenic sources. We compared the adjusted geometric mean ratios and corresponding percent change of urinary rDMA across tertiles of private well and CWS arsenic levels, with the lowest tertile as the reference. Comparisons were made overall and stratified by census region and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Overall, the geometric mean of urinary rDMA was 2.52 (2.30, 2.77) µg/L among private well users and 2.64 (2.57, 2.72) µg/L among CWS users. Urinary rDMA was highest among participants in the West and South, and among Mexican American, Other Hispanic, and Non-Hispanic Other participants. Urinary rDMA levels were 25% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17-34%) and 20% (95% CI: 12-29%) higher comparing the highest to the lowest tertile of CWS and private well arsenic, respectively. The strongest associations between water arsenic and urinary rDMA were observed among participants in the South, West, and among Mexican American and Non-Hispanic White and Black participants. DISCUSSION: Both private wells and regulated CWSs are associated with inorganic arsenic internal dose as reflected in urine in the general U.S.

Assessing the Impact of Drought on Arsenic Exposure from Private Domestic Wells in the Conterminous United States.

This study assesses the potential impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells by using a previously developed statistical model that predicts the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations (>10 µg per liter) in water from domestic wells located in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The application of the model to simulate drought conditions used systematically reduced precipitation and recharge values. The drought conditions resulted in higher probabilities of elevated arsenic throughout most of the CONUS. While the increase in the probability of elevated arsenic was generally less than 10% at any one location, when considered over the entire CONUS, the increase has considerable public health implications. The population exposed to elevated arsenic from domestic wells was estimated to increase from approximately 2.7 million to 4.1 million people during drought. The model was also run using total annual precipitation and groundwater recharge values from the year 2012 when drought existed over a large extent of the CONUS. This simulation provided a method for comparing the duration of drought to changes in the predicted probability of high arsenic in domestic wells. These results suggest that the probability of exposure to arsenic concentrations greater than 10 µg per liter increases with increasing duration of drought. These findings indicate that drought has a potentially adverse impact on the arsenic hazard from domestic wells throughout the CONUS.

Machine Learning Models of Arsenic in Private Wells Throughout the Conterminous United States As a Tool for Exposure Assessment in Human Health Studies.

Arsenic from geologic sources is widespread in groundwater within the United States (U.S.). In several areas, groundwater arsenic concentrations exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level of 10 µg per liter (µg/L). However, this standard applies only to public-supply drinking water and not to private-supply, which is not federally regulated and is rarely monitored. As a result, arsenic exposure from private wells is a potentially substantial, but largely hidden, public health concern. Machine learning models using boosted regression trees (BRT) and random forest classification (RFC) techniques were developed to estimate probabilities and concentration ranges of arsenic in private wells throughout the conterminous U.S. Three BRT models were fit separately to estimate the probability of private well arsenic concentrations exceeding 1, 5, or 10 µg/L whereas the RFC model estimates the most probable category (≤5, >5 to ≤10, or >10 µg/L). Overall, the models perform best at identifying areas with low concentrations of arsenic in private wells. The BRT 10 µg/L model estimates for testing data have an overall accuracy of 91.2%, sensitivity of 33.9%, and specificity of 98.2%. Influential variables identified across all models included average annual precipitation and soil geochemistry. Models were developed in collaboration with public health experts to support U.S.-based studies focused on health effects from arsenic exposure.

Trends in Methyl tert-Butyl Ether Concentrations in Private Wells in Southeast New Hampshire: 2005 to 2015.

In southeast New Hampshire, where reformulated gasoline was used from the 1990s to 2007, methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations ≥0.2 µg/L were found in water from 26.7% of 195 domestic wells sampled in 2005. Ten years later in 2015, and eight years after MtBE was banned, 10.3% continue to have MtBE. Most wells (140 of 195) had no MtBE detections (concentrations <0.2 µg/L) in 2005 and 2015. Of the remaining wells, MtBE concentrations increased in 4 wells, decreased in 47 wells, and did not change in 4 wells. On average, MtBE concentrations decreased 65% among 47 wells whereas MtBE concentrations increased 17% among 4 wells between 2005 and 2015. The percent change in detection frequency from 2005 to 2015 (the decontamination rate) was lowest (45.5%) in high-population-density areas and in wells completed in the Berwick Formation geologic units. The decontamination rate was the highest (78.6%) where population densities were low and wells were completed in bedrock composed of granite, metamorphic, and mafic rocks. Wells in the Berwick Formation are characteristically deeper and have lower yields than wells in other rock types and have shallower overburden cover, which may allow for more rapid transport of MtBE from land-surface releases. Low-yielding, deep bedrock wells may require large contributing areas to achieve adequate well yield, and thus have a greater chance of intercepting MtBE, in addition to diluting contaminants at a slower rate and thus requiring more time to decontaminate.

Estimating the High-Arsenic Domestic-Well Population in the Conterminous United States.

Arsenic concentrations from 20 450 domestic wells in the U.S. were used to develop a logistic regression model of the probability of having arsenic >10 µg/L ("high arsenic"), which is presented at the county, state, and national scales. Variables representing geologic sources, geochemical, hydrologic, and physical features were among the significant predictors of high arsenic. For U.S. Census blocks, the mean probability of arsenic >10 µg/L was multiplied by the population using domestic wells to estimate the potential high-arsenic domestic-well population. Approximately 44.1 M people in the U.S. use water from domestic wells. The population in the conterminous U.S. using water from domestic wells with predicted arsenic concentration >10 µg/L is 2.1 M people (95% CI is 1.5 to 2.9 M). Although areas of the U.S. were underrepresented with arsenic data, predictive variables available in national data sets were used to estimate high arsenic in unsampled areas. Additionally, by predicting to all of the conterminous U.S., we identify areas of high and low potential exposure in areas of limited arsenic data. These areas may be viewed as potential areas to investigate further or to compare to more detailed local information. Linking predictive modeling to private well use information nationally, despite the uncertainty, is beneficial for broad screening of the population at risk from elevated arsenic in drinking water from private wells.

Predicting Arsenic in Drinking Water Wells of the Central Valley, California.

Probabilities of arsenic in groundwater at depths used for domestic and public supply in the Central Valley of California are predicted using weak-learner ensemble models (boosted regression trees, BRT) and more traditional linear models (logistic regression, LR). Both methods captured major processes that affect arsenic concentrations, such as the chemical evolution of groundwater, redox differences, and the influence of aquifer geochemistry. Inferred flow-path length was the most important variable but near-surface-aquifer geochemical data also were significant. A unique feature of this study was that previously predicted nitrate concentrations in three dimensions were themselves predictive of arsenic and indicated an important redox effect at >10 µg/L, indicating low arsenic where nitrate was high. Additionally, a variable representing three-dimensional aquifer texture from the Central Valley Hydrologic Model was an important predictor, indicating high arsenic associated with fine-grained aquifer sediment. BRT outperformed LR at the 5 µg/L threshold in all five predictive performance measures and at 10 µg/L in four out of five measures. BRT yielded higher prediction sensitivity (39%) than LR (18%) at the 10 µg/L threshold-a useful outcome because a major objective of the modeling was to improve our ability to predict high arsenic areas.

Geospatial association between adverse birth outcomes and arsenic in groundwater in New Hampshire, USA.

There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Because drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, USA. We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, by using data for 1997-2009 stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates by using a locally weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic probability values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration >1 µg/L, probability >5 µg/L, and probability >10 µg/L. We calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic probability values, at both state and county levels. For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age <20) have a statewide r = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability >10 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; a majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability >10 µg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age <25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic concentration based on the data of probability >1 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability >10 µg/L. At the county level for younger mothers, positive r values prevail, but for older mothers, it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties-with 60-80 % of the state's population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state-are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, USA. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic.

A brief note on substantial sub-daily arsenic variability in pumping drinking-water wells in New Hampshire.

Large variations in redox-related water parameters, like pH and dissolved oxygen (DO), have been documented in New Hampshire (United States) drinking-water wells over the course of a few hours under pumping conditions. These findings suggest that comparable sub-daily variability in dissolved concentrations of redox-reactive and toxic arsenic (As) also may occur, representing a potentially critical public-health data gap and a fundamental challenge for long-term As-trends monitoring. To test this hypothesis, discrete groundwater As samples were collected approximately hourly during one day in May and again in August 2019 from three New Hampshire drinking-water wells (2 public-supply, 1 private) under active pumping conditions. Collected samples were assessed by laboratory analysis (total As [AsTot], As(III), As(V)) and by field analysis (AsTot) using a novel integrated biosensor system. Laboratory analysis revealed sub-daily variability (range) in AsTot concentrations equivalent to 16 % - 36 % of that observed in the antecedent 3-year bimonthly trend monitoring. Thus, the results indicated that, along with previously demonstrated seasonality effects, the timing and duration of pumping are important considerations when assessing trends in drinking-water As exposures and concomitant risks. Results also illustrated the utility of the field sensor for monitoring and management of AsTot exposures in near-real-time.

Arsenic in private well water and birth outcomes in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to drinking water with arsenic concentrations >50 µg/L is associated with adverse birth outcomes, with inconclusive evidence for concentrations ≤50 µg/L. In a collaborative effort by public health experts, hydrologists, and geologists, we used published machine learning model estimates to characterize arsenic concentrations in private wells-federally unregulated for drinking water contaminants-and evaluated associations with birth outcomes throughout the conterminous U.S. METHODS: Using several machine learning models, including boosted regression trees (BRT) and random forest classification (RFC), developed from measured groundwater arsenic concentrations of ∼20,000 private wells, we characterized the probability that arsenic concentrations occurred within specific ranges in groundwater. Probabilistic model estimates and private well usage data were linked by county to all live birth certificates from 2016 (n = 3.6 million). We evaluated associations with gestational age and term birth weight using mixed-effects models, adjusted for potential confounders and incorporated random intercepts for spatial clustering. RESULTS: We generally observed inverse associations with term birth weight. For instance, when using BRT estimates, a 10-percentage point increase in the probability that private well arsenic concentrations exceeded 5 µg/L was associated with a -1.83 g (95% CI: -3.30, -0.38) lower term birth weight after adjusting for covariates. Similarly, a 10-percentage point increase in the probability that private well arsenic concentrations exceeded 10 µg/L was associated with a -2.79 g (95% CI: -4.99, -0.58) lower term birth weight. Associations with gestational age were null. CONCLUSION: In this largest epidemiologic study of arsenic and birth outcomes to date, we did not observe associations of modeled arsenic estimates in private wells with gestational age and found modest inverse associations with term birth weight. Study limitations may have obscured true associations, including measurement error stemming from a lack of individual-level information on primary water sources, water arsenic concentrations, and water consumption patterns.

Associations between private well water and community water supply arsenic concentrations in the conterminous United States.

Geogenic arsenic contamination typically occurs in groundwater as opposed to surface water supplies. Groundwater is a major source for many community water systems (CWSs) in the United States (US). Although the US Environmental Protection Agency sets the maximum contaminant level (MCL enforceable since 2006: 10 µg/L) for arsenic in CWSs, private wells are not federally regulated. We evaluated county-level associations between modeled values of the probability of private well arsenic exceeding 10 µg/L and CWS arsenic concentrations for 2231 counties in the conterminous US, using time invariant private well arsenic estimates and CWS arsenic estimates for two time periods. Nationwide, county-level CWS arsenic concentrations increased by 8.4 µg/L per 100% increase in the probability of private well arsenic exceeding 10 µg/L for 2006-2008 (the initial compliance monitoring period after MCL implementation), and by 7.3 µg/L for 2009-2011 (the second monitoring period following MCL implementation) (1.1 µg/L mean decline over time). Regional differences in this temporal decline suggest that interventions to implement the MCL were more pronounced in regions served primarily by groundwater. The strong association between private well and CWS arsenic in Rural, American Indian, and Semi Urban, Hispanic counties suggests that future research and regulatory support are needed to reduce water arsenic exposures in these vulnerable subpopulations. This comparison of arsenic exposure values from major private and public drinking water sources nationwide is critical to future assessments of drinking water arsenic exposure and health outcomes.

Time scales of arsenic variability and the role of high-frequency monitoring at three water-supply wells in New Hampshire, USA.

Groundwater geochemistry, redox process classification, high-frequency physicochemical and hydrologic measurements, and climate data were analyzed to identify controls on arsenic (As) concentration changes. Groundwater was monitored in two public-supply wells (one glacial aquifer and one bedrock aquifer), and one bedrock-aquifer domestic well in New Hampshire, USA, from 2014 to 2018 to identify time scales of and controls on As concentration changes. Concentrations of As and other geochemical constituents were measured bimonthly. Specific conductance (SC), pH, dissolved oxygen, and pumping rate/water level were measured at high frequency (every 5 to 15 min). Median (and 95% confidence interval) As concentrations at the three wells were 4.1 (3.7-4.6), 18.9 (17.2-23.6), and 37.5 (30.4-42.9) µg/L. Arsenic variability in each of the three wells, in relative standard deviation, ranged from 9 to 12%. Median quarterly As concentrations were highest in all wells in the spring. The bedrock-aquifer public-supply well As concentration increased over the period of study while pumping rate decreased. In the public-supply wells, As variability was correlated with SC and pH, and As species were related to SC, pH, pumping, precipitation, and changes in redox process. Specific conductance also had a seasonal pattern in the two public-supply wells and was correlated with Na and Cl. Excess Na in water samples suggests possible ion exchange with dissolved Ca, creating more capacity to dissolve CaCO3 from calcareous rocks, which can increase pH and in turn, As concentrations in wells. High-frequency monitoring data are cost effective to collect, which could be advantageous in other parts of the United States and in the many parts of the world where glacial aquifers are in direct contact with other water supply aquifers or where water from different aquifers have potential to mix.

Arsenic concentrations after drinking water well installation: Time-varying effects on arsenic mobilization.

Chronic exposure to geogenic arsenic via drinking water is a worldwide health concern. However, effects of well installation and operation on arsenic concentrations and mobilization are not well understood. This knowledge gap impacts both reliable detection of arsenic in drinking water and effective public health recommendations to reduce exposure to arsenic. This study examines changes in arsenic and redox geochemistry over one year following installation of 254 new domestic water wells in three regions of the north-central USA that commonly have elevated arsenic concentrations. Our regions' geologic settings share some important characteristics with other high-arsenic aquifers: igneous bedrock aquifers; or late Pleistocene-age glacial sand and gravel aquifers interbedded with aquitards. Over the study, arsenic concentrations increased by 16% or more in 25% of wells in glacial aquifer regions, and the redox conditions changed towards more reducing. In wells in the bedrock region, there was no significant change in arsenic concentrations, and redox conditions changed towards more oxidizing. Our findings illustrate the importance of understanding short- to moderate-term impacts of well installation and operation on arsenic and aqueous chemistry, as it relates to human exposure. Our study informs water quality sampling requirements, which currently do not consider the implications sampling timing with respect to well installation. Evaluating arsenic concentrations in samples from new wells in the context of general regional pH and redox conditions can provide information regarding the degree of disequilibrium created by well drilling. Our analysis approach may be transferable and scalable to similar aquifer settings across the globe.

Performance Assessments of a Novel Well Design for Reducing Exposure to Bedrock-Derived Arsenic.

Arsenic in groundwater is a serious problem in New England, particularly for domestic well owners drawing water from bedrock aquifers. The overlying glacial aquifer generally has waters with low arsenic concentrations but is less used because of frequent loss of well water during dry periods and the vulnerability to surface-sourced bacterial contamination. An alternative, novel design for shallow wells in glacial aquifers is intended to draw water primarily from unconsolidated glacial deposits, while being resistant to drought conditions and surface contamination. Its use could greatly reduce exposure to arsenic through drinking water for domestic use. Hypothetical numerical models were used to investigate the potential hydraulic performance of the new well design in reducing arsenic exposure. The aquifer system was divided into two parts, an upper section representing the glacial sediments and a lower section representing the bedrock. The location of the well, recharge conditions, and hydraulic properties were systematically varied in a series of simulations and the potential for arsenic contamination was quantified by analyzing groundwater flow paths to the well. The greatest risk of arsenic contamination occurred when the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock aquifer was high, or where there was upward flow from the bedrock aquifer because of the position of the well in the flow system.

Using groundwater age distributions to understand changes in methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations in ambient groundwater, northeastern United States.

Temporal changes in methyl tert-butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations in groundwater were evaluated in the northeastern United States, an area of the nation with widespread low-level detections of MtBE based on a national survey of wells selected to represent ambient conditions. MtBE use in the U.S. peaked in 1999 and was largely discontinued by 2007. Six well networks, each representing specific areas and well types (monitoring or supply wells), were each sampled at 10year intervals between 1996 and 2012. Concentrations were decreasing or unchanged in most wells as of 2012, with the exception of a small number of wells where concentrations continue to increase. Statistically significant increasing concentrations were found in one network sampled for the second time shortly after the peak of MtBE use, and decreasing concentrations were found in two networks sampled for the second time about 10years after the peak of MtBE use. Simulated concentrations from convolutions of estimates for concentrations of MtBE in recharge water with age distributions from environmental tracer data correctly predicted the direction of MtBE concentration changes in about 65% of individual wells. The best matches between simulated and observed concentrations were found when simulating recharge concentrations that followed the pattern of national MtBE use. Some observations were matched better when recharge was modeled as a plume moving past the well from a spill at one point in time. Modeling and sample results showed that wells with young median ages and narrow age distributions responded more quickly to changes in the contaminant source than wells with older median ages and broad age distributions. Well depth and aquifer type affect these responses. Regardless of the timing of decontamination, all of these aquifers show high susceptibility for contamination by a highly soluble, persistent constituent.

Bladder cancer mortality and private well use in New England: an ecological study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate the possible relation between bladder cancer mortality among white men and women and private water use in New England, USA, where rates have been persistently raised and use of private water supplies (wells) common. DESIGN: Ecological study relating age adjusted cancer mortality rates for white men and women during 1985-1999 and proportion of persons using private water supplies in 1970. After regressing mortality rates on population density, Pearson correlation coefficients were computed between residual rates and the proportion of the population using private water supplies, using the state economic area as the unit of calculation. Calculations were conducted within each of 10 US regions. SETTING: The 504 state economic areas of the contiguous United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality analysis of 11 cancer sites, with the focus on bladder cancer. MAIN RESULTS: After adjusting for the effect of population density, there was a statistically significant positive correlation between residual bladder cancer mortality rates and private water supply use among both men and women in New England (men, r = 0.42; women, r = 0.48) and New York/New Jersey (men, r = 0.49; women, r = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Use of well water from private sources, or a close correlate, may be an explanatory variable for the excess bladder cancer mortality in New England. Analytical studies are underway to clarify the relation between suspected water contaminants, particularly arsenic, and raised bladder cancer rates in northern New England.

Elevated Bladder Cancer in Northern New England: The Role of Drinking Water and Arsenic.

BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer mortality rates have been elevated in northern New England for at least five decades. Incidence rates in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont are about 20% higher than the United States overall. We explored reasons for this excess, focusing on arsenic in drinking water from private wells, which are particularly prevalent in the region. METHODS: In a population-based case-control study in these three states, 1213 bladder cancer case patients and 1418 control subjects provided information on suspected risk factors. Log transformed arsenic concentrations were estimated by linear regression based on measurements in water samples from current and past homes. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Bladder cancer risk increased with increasing water intake (Ptrend = .003). This trend was statistically significant among participants with a history of private well use (Ptrend = .01). Among private well users, this trend was apparent if well water was derived exclusively from shallow dug wells (which are vulnerable to contamination from manmade sources, Ptrend = .002) but not if well water was supplied only by deeper drilled wells (Ptrend = .48). If dug wells were used pre-1960, when arsenical pesticides were widely used in the region, heavier water consumers (>2.2 L/day) had double the risk of light users (<1.1 L/day, Ptrend = .01). Among all participants, cumulative arsenic exposure from all water sources, lagged 40 years, yielded a positive risk gradient (Ptrend = .004); among the highest-exposed participants (97.5th percentile), risk was twice that of the lowest-exposure quartile (odds ratio = 2.24, 95% confidence interval = 1.29 to 3.89). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support an association between low-to-moderate levels of arsenic in drinking water and bladder cancer risk in New England. In addition, historical consumption of water from private wells, particularly dug wells in an era when arsenical pesticides were widely used, was associated with increased bladder cancer risk and may have contributed to the New England excess.

At the crossroads: Hazard assessment and reduction of health risks from arsenic in private well waters of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada.

This special issue contains 12 papers that report on new understanding of arsenic (As) hydrogeochemistry, performance of household well water treatment systems, and testing and treatment behaviors of well users in several states of the northeastern region of the United States and Nova Scotia, Canada. The responsibility to ensure water safety of private wells falls on well owners. In the U.S., 43 million Americans, mostly from rural areas, use private wells. In order to reduce As exposure in rural populations that rely on private wells for drinking water, risk assessment, which includes estimation of population at risk of exposure to As above the EPA Maximum Contaminant Level, is helpful but insufficient because it does not identify individual households at risk. Persistent optimistic bias among well owners against testing and barriers such as cost of treatment mean that a large percentage of the population will not act to reduce their exposure to harmful substances such as As. If households are in areas with known As occurrence, a potentially large percentage of well owners will remain unaware of their exposure. To ensure that everyone, including vulnerable populations such as low income families with children and pregnant women, is not exposed to arsenic in their drinking water, alternative action will be required and warrants further research.

Factors affecting temporal variability of arsenic in groundwater used for drinking water supply in the United States.

The occurrence of arsenic in groundwater is a recognized environmental hazard with worldwide importance and much effort has been focused on surveying and predicting where arsenic occurs. Temporal variability is one aspect of this environmental hazard that has until recently received less attention than other aspects. For this study, we analyzed 1245 wells with two samples per well. We suggest that temporal variability, often reported as affecting very few wells, is perhaps a larger issue than it appears and has been overshadowed by datasets with large numbers of non-detect data. Although there was only a slight difference in arsenic concentration variability among samples from public and private wells (p=0.0452), the range of variability was larger for public than for private wells. Further, we relate the variability we see to geochemical factors-primarily variability in redox-but also variability in major-ion chemistry. We also show that in New England there is a weak but statistically significant indication that seasonality may have an effect on concentrations, whereby concentrations in the first two quarters of the year (January-June) are significantly lower than in the second two quarters (July-December) (p<0.0001). In the Central Valley of California, the relation of arsenic concentration to season was not statistically significant (p=0.4169). In New England, these changes appear to follow groundwater levels. It is possible that this difference in arsenic concentrations is related to groundwater level changes, pumping stresses, evapotranspiration effects, or perhaps mixing of more oxidizing, lower pH recharge water in wetter months. Focusing on the understanding the geochemical conditions in aquifers where arsenic concentrations are concerns and causes of geochemical changes in the groundwater environment may lead to a better understanding of where and by how much arsenic will vary over time.