The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability.

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Linkages between measures of biodiversity and community resilience in Pacific Island agroforests.

Designing agroecosystems that are compatible with the conservation of biodiversity is a top conservation priority. However, the social variables that drive native biodiversity conservation in these systems are poorly understood. We devised a new approach to identify social-ecological linkages that affect conservation outcomes in agroecosystems and in social-ecological systems more broadly. We focused on coastal agroforests in Fiji, which, like agroforests across other small Pacific Islands, are critical to food security, contain much of the country's remaining lowland forests, and have rapidly declining levels of native biodiversity. We tested the relationships among social variables and native tree species richness in agroforests with structural equation models. The models were built with data from ecological and social surveys in 100 agroforests and associated households. The agroforests hosted 95 native tree species of which almost one-third were endemic. Fifty-eight percent of farms had at least one species considered threatened at the national or international level. The best-fit structural equation model (R2 = 47.8%) showed that social variables important for community resilience-local ecological knowledge, social network connectivity, and livelihood diversity-had direct and indirect positive effects on native tree species richness. Cash-crop intensification, a driver of biodiversity loss elsewhere, did not negatively affect native tree richness within parcels. Joining efforts to build community resilience, specifically by increasing livelihood diversity, local ecological knowledge, and social network connectivity, may help conservation agencies conserve the rapidly declining biodiversity in the region.

Microplastics absent from reef fish in the Marshall Islands: Multistage screening methods reduced false positives.

Island communities, like the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), depend on marine resources for food and economics, so plastic ingestion by those resources is a concern. The gastrointestinal tracts of nine species of reef fish across five trophic groups (97 fish) were examined for plastics >1 mm. Over 2100 putative plastic particles from 72 fish were identified under light microscopy. Only 115 of these from 47 fish passed a plastic screening method using Fourier-transform infrared microspectroscopy (µFTIR) in reflectance mode. All of these were identified as natural materials in a final confirmatory analysis, attenuated total reflectance FTIR. The high false-positive rate of visual and µFTIR methods highlight the importance of using multiple polymer identification methods. Limited studies on ingested plastic in reef fish present challenging comparisons because of different methods used. No plastic >1 mm were found in the RMI reef fish, reassuring human consumers.

Conservation policies informed by food system feedbacks can avoid unintended consequences.

Understanding the feedbacks between food systems and conservation policies can help avoid unintended environmental consequences. Using a survey-based choice experiment and economic modelling, we quantify the potential impact of tourists' responses to a shift in offshore fish supply after the designation of a large-scale marine protected area in Palau. We find that this conservation policy may increase offshore fish prices and tourists' consumption of reef fish, thereby further endangering local reef ecosystems. However, if tourists are offered a sustainable offshore choice, their demand for fish could be kept at current levels, and environmental impacts from increased reef fish consumption would be avoided.

Biocultural approaches to well-being and sustainability indicators across scales.

Monitoring and evaluation are central to ensuring that innovative, multi-scale, and interdisciplinary approaches to sustainability are effective. The development of relevant indicators for local sustainable management outcomes, and the ability to link these to broader national and international policy targets, are key challenges for resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. Sets of indicators that capture both ecological and social-cultural factors, and the feedbacks between them, can underpin cross-scale linkages that help bridge local and global scale initiatives to increase resilience of both humans and ecosystems. Here we argue that biocultural approaches, in combination with methods for synthesizing across evidence from multiple sources, are critical to developing metrics that facilitate linkages across scales and dimensions. Biocultural approaches explicitly start with and build on local cultural perspectives - encompassing values, knowledges, and needs - and recognize feedbacks between ecosystems and human well-being. Adoption of these approaches can encourage exchange between local and global actors, and facilitate identification of crucial problems and solutions that are missing from many regional and international framings of sustainability. Resource managers, scientists, and policymakers need to be thoughtful about not only what kinds of indicators are measured, but also how indicators are designed, implemented, measured, and ultimately combined to evaluate resource use and well-being. We conclude by providing suggestions for translating between local and global indicator efforts.