Ranking possible carcinogenic hazards.

This review discusses reasons why animal cancer tests cannot be used to predict absolute human risks. Such tests, however, may be used to indicate that some chemicals might be of greater concern than others. Possible hazards to humans from a variety of rodent carcinogens are ranked by an index that relates the potency of each carcinogen in rodents to the exposure in humans. This ranking suggests that carcinogenic hazards from current levels of pesticide residues or water pollution are likely to be of minimal concern relative to the background levels of natural substances, though one cannot say whether these natural exposures are likely to be of major or minor importance.

Interspecies extrapolation in carcinogenesis: prediction between rats and mice.

Interspecies extrapolation in carcinogenesis is studied by evaluating prediction from rats to mice and from mice to rats. The Carcinogenic Potency Database, which includes 3500 cancer tests conducted in rats or mice on 955 compounds, is used for the analysis. About half of the chemicals tested for carcinogenicity are positive in at least one test, and this proportion is similar when rats and mice are considered separately. For 392 chemicals tested in both species, 76% of the rat carcinogens are positive in the mouse, and 70% of mouse carcinogens are positive in the rat. When compounds composed solely of chlorine, carbon, hydrogen, and, optionally, oxygen are excluded from the analysis, 75% of mouse carcinogens are positive in the rat. Overall concordance (the percentage positive in both species plus the percentage negative in both) is 76%. Three factors that affect prediction between rats and mice are discussed: chemical class, mutagenicity in the Salmonella assay, and the dose level at which a chemical is toxic. Prediction is more accurate for mutagens than non-mutagens and for substances that are toxic at low (versus only at high) doses. Species differences are not the result of failure in the bioassay to attain the maximum tolerated dose in the negative species or of more frequent testing in the positive species. An analysis of the predictive value of positivity for the 10 most common target sites indicates that most sites are good predictors of carcinogenicity at some site in the other species; the poorest predictors among these common sites are the rat urinary bladder and the mouse liver.

Second chronological supplement to the Carcinogenic Potency Database: standardized results of animal bioassays published through December 1984 and by the National Toxicology Program through May 1986.

This paper is the second chronological supplement to the Carcinogenic Potency Database, published earlier in this journal (1,2,4). We report here results of carcinogenesis bioassays published in the general literature between January 1983 and December 1984, and in Technical Reports of the National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program between January 1983 and May 1986. This supplement includes results of 525 long-term, chronic experiments of 199 test compounds, and reports the same information about each experiment in the same plot format as the earlier papers: e.g., the species and strain of test animal, the route and duration of compound administration, dose level and other aspects of experimental protocol, histopathology and tumor incidence, TD50 (carcinogenic potency) and its statistical significance, dose response, author's opinion about carcinogenicity, and literature citation. We refer the reader to the 1984 publications for a description of the numerical index of carcinogenic potency (TD50), a guide to the plot of the database, and a discussion of the sources of data, the rationale for the inclusion of particular experiments and particular target sites, and the conventions adopted in summarizing the literature. The three plots of the database are to be used together, since results of experiments published in earlier plots are not repeated. Taken together, the three plots include results for more than 3500 experiments on 975 chemicals. Appendix 14 is an index to all chemicals in the database and indicates which plot(s) each chemical appears in.

Chronological supplement to the Carcinogenic Potency Database: standardized results of animal bioassays published through December 1982.

This paper is a chronological supplement to our earlier publication, "A Carcinogenic Potency Database of the Standardized Results of Animal Bioassays." We report here results of carcinogenesis bioassays published in Technical Reports of the National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program between July 1980 and December 1982, and the general literature between July 1981 and December 1982. This supplement includes results of 280 long-term, chronic experiments of 114 test compounds, and reports the same information about each experiment in the same plot format as the earlier paper: e.g., the species and strain of test animal, the route and duration of compound administration, dose level and other aspects of experimental protocol, histopathology and tumor incidence, TD50 and its statistical significance, dose response, author's opinion about carcinogenicity, and literature reference. While a number of appendices are provided to facilitate use of this supplement, we have not duplicated here the material published earlier. Instead, we refer the reader to the earlier publications (Peto et al. and Gold et al.) for a thorough description of the numerical index of carcinogenic potency (TD50), a guide to the plot of the database, and a discussion of the sources of data, the rationale for the inclusion of particular experiments and particular target sites, and the conventions adopted in summarizing the literature. For 44 of the 114 chemicals reported in this second plot, results of earlier experiments are also given in the first plot; since only 1981-1982 results are reported here, the first plot is required for these repeated compounds. In this paper we also give corrections for errors that appeared in the earlier publication.

A carcinogenic potency database of the standardized results of animal bioassays.

The preceding paper described our numerical index of carcinogenic potency, the TD50 and the statistical procedures adopted for estimating it from experimental data. This paper presents the Carcinogenic Potency Database, which includes results of about 3000 long-term, chronic experiments of 770 test compounds. Part II is a discussion of the sources of our data, the rationale for the inclusion of particular experiments and particular target sites, and the conventions adopted in summarizing the literature. Part III is a guide to the plot of results presented in Part IV. A number of appendices are provided to facilitate use of the database. The plot includes information about chronic cancer tests in mammals, such as dose and other aspects of experimental protocol, histopathology and tumor incidence, TD50 and its statistical significance, dose response, author's opinion and literature reference. The plot readily permits comparisons of carcinogenic potency and many other aspects of cancer tests; it also provides quantitative information about negative tests. The range of carcinogenic potency is over 10 million-fold.