Triangulating evidence from observational and Mendelian randomization studies of ketone bodies for cognitive performance.

BACKGROUND: Ketone bodies (KBs) are an alternative energy supply for brain functions when glucose is limited. The most abundant ketone metabolite, 3-ß-hydroxybutyrate (BOHBUT), has been suggested to prevent or delay cognitive impairment, but the evidence remains unclear. We triangulated observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies to investigate the association and causation between KBs and cognitive function. METHODS: In observational analyses of 5506 participants aged ≥ 45 years from the Whitehall II study, we used multiple linear regression to investigate the associations between categorized KBs and cognitive function scores. Two-sample MR was carried out using summary statistics from an in-house KBs meta-analysis between the University College London-London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium and Kettunen et al. (N = 45,031), and publicly available summary statistics of cognitive performance and Alzheimer's disease (AD) from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (N = 257,841), and the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (N = 54,162), respectively. Both strong (P < 5 × 10-8) and suggestive (P < 1 × 10-5) sets of instrumental variables for BOHBUT were applied. Finally, we performed cis-MR on OXCT1, a well-known gene for KB catabolism. RESULTS: BOHBUT was positively associated with general cognitive function (ß = 0.26, P = 9.74 × 10-3). In MR analyses, we observed a protective effect of BOHBUT on cognitive performance (inverse variance weighted: ßIVW = 7.89 × 10-2, PIVW = 1.03 × 10-2; weighted median: ßW-Median = 8.65 × 10-2, PW-Median = 9.60 × 10-3) and a protective effect on AD (ßIVW = - 0.31, odds ratio: OR = 0.74, PIVW = 3.06 × 10-2). Cis-MR showed little evidence of therapeutic modulation of OXCT1 on cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulation of evidence suggests that BOHBUT has a beneficial effect on cognitive performance. Our findings raise the hypothesis that increased BOHBUT may improve general cognitive functions, delaying cognitive impairment and reducing the risk of AD.

Risk of dementia associated with body mass index, changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the relationship of dementia with preceding body mass index (BMI), changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (1064 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75), body weight, waist circumference and BMI were measured at baseline and after 4 years in a subgroup (n = 821). Percentage body weight and waist circumference change over 4 years were calculated. Data on incident dementia was recorded during a median follow-up time of 10.84 years. Survival models considering a range of co-variables and/or death as a competing risk were used to estimate the risks of dementia associated with each weight-related variable. RESULTS: A total of 105 incident dementia events were recorded. When compared with people in the lowest BMI group (<25 kg/m2 ), risk of dementia was lower in intermediate BMI groups (25-29.9 kg/m2 , HR 0.44, p = 0.002; 30-34.9 kg/m2 , HR 0.41, p = 0.001) and the highest BMI group (≧35 kg/m2 , HR 0.35, p = 0.001). In the weight change subgroup, 78 incident dementia events were recorded between years 4 and 10. Body weight loss over 5% (compared with ≦5%) was associated with higher incidence of dementia (HR 2.06, p = 0.010). The association between waist circumference change and dementia was not significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Both a lower BMI and weight loss over a period of years are indicative of increased dementia risk for older people with type 2 diabetes, while waist circumference changes may be less informative.

Higher baseline inflammatory marker levels predict greater cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes: year 10 follow-up of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine the longitudinal association of circulating markers of systemic inflammation with subsequent long-term cognitive change in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort study of 1066 adults aged 60 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes. Baseline data included C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α fibrinogen and neuropsychological testing on major cognitive domains. Cognitive testing was repeated after 10 years in 581 participants. A general cognitive ability score was derived from the battery of seven individual cognitive tests using principal component analysis. Linear regression was used to determine longitudinal associations between baseline inflammatory markers and cognitive outcomes at follow-up, with baseline cognitive test results included as covariables to model cognitive change over time. RESULTS: Following adjustment for age, sex and baseline general cognitive ability, higher baseline fibrinogen and IL-6 were associated with greater decline in general cognitive ability (standardised ßs = -0.059, p=0.032 and -0.064, p=0.018, respectively). These associations lost statistical significance after adjustment for baseline vascular and diabetes-related covariables. When assessing associations with individual cognitive tests, higher IL-6 was associated with greater decline in tests of executive function and abstract reasoning (standardised ßs = 0.095, p=0.006 and -0.127, p=0.001, respectively). Similarly, raised fibrinogen and C-reactive protein levels were associated with greater decline in processing speed (standardised ßs = -0.115, p=0.001 and -0.111, p=0.001, respectively). These associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for the diabetes- and vascular-related risk factors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Higher baseline levels of inflammatory markers, including plasma IL-6, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein, were associated with subsequent cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes. At least some of this association appeared to be specific to certain cognitive domains and to be independent of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors.

Serum metabolomic profiles associated with subclinical and clinical cardiovascular phenotypes in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in diabetes, but the full range of biomarkers reflecting atherosclerotic burden and CVD risk in people with diabetes is unknown. Metabolomics may help identify novel biomarkers potentially involved in development of atherosclerosis. We investigated the serum metabolomic profile of subclinical atherosclerosis, measured using ankle brachial index (ABI), in people with type 2 diabetes, compared with the profile for symptomatic CVD in the same population. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a cohort of 1,066 individuals with type 2 diabetes. ABI was measured at baseline, years 4 and 10, with cardiovascular events assessed at baseline and during 10 years of follow-up. A panel of 228 metabolites was measured at baseline using nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry, and their association with both ABI and prevalent CVD was explored using univariate regression models and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Metabolites associated with baseline ABI were further explored for association with follow-up ABI and incident CVD. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation, SD) ABI at baseline was 0.97 (0.18, N = 1025), and prevalence of CVD was 35.0%. During 10-year follow-up, mean (SD) change in ABI was + 0.006 (0.178, n = 436), and 257 CVD events occurred. Lactate, glycerol, creatinine and glycoprotein acetyls levels were associated with baseline ABI in both univariate regression [ßs (95% confidence interval, CI) ranged from - 0.025 (- 0.036, - 0.015) to - 0.023 (- 0.034, - 0.013), all p < 0.0002] and LASSO analysis. The associations remained nominally significant after adjustment for major vascular risk factors. In prospective analyses, lactate was nominally associated with ABI measured at years 4 and 10 after adjustment for baseline ABI. The four ABI-associated metabolites were all positively associated with prevalent CVD [odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.29 (1.13, 1.47) to 1.49 (1.29, 1.74), all p < 0.0002], and they were also positively associated with incident CVD [ORs (95% CI) ranged from 1.19 (1.02, 1.39) to 1.35 (1.17, 1.56), all p < 0.05]. CONCLUSIONS: Serum metabolites relating to glycolysis, fluid balance and inflammation were independently associated with both a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and with symptomatic CVD in people with type 2 diabetes. Additional investigation is warranted to determine their roles as possible etiological and/or predictive biomarkers for atherosclerotic CVD.

Retinal arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension are associated with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to determine whether quantitative retinal traits in people with type 2 diabetes are independently associated with incident major cardiovascular events including CHD and stroke. METHODS: A total of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 65-74 years, were followed up over 8 years in the population-based Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. Using retinal photographs taken at baseline and specialist software, a number of quantitative retinal traits were measured, including arteriolar and venular widths and tortuosity as well as fractal dimension (a measure of the branching pattern complexity of the retinal vasculature network). Incident CHD events occurring during follow-up included fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, first episodes of angina and coronary interventions for CHD. Incident cerebrovascular events included fatal and non-fatal stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to identify the association of the retinal traits with cardiovascular events in the population with retinal data available (n = 1028). RESULTS: A total of 200 participants had an incident cardiovascular event (139 CHD and 61 cerebrovascular events). Following adjustment for age and sex, arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension were associated with cerebrovascular events (HR 1.27 [95% CI 1.02, 1.58] and HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.57, 0.95], respectively), including with stroke alone (HR 1.30 [95% CI 1.01, 1.66] and HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56, 0.97], respectively). These associations persisted after further adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.01, 1.58] and HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56, 0.94], respectively). Associations generally reduced in strength after a final adjustment for the presence of diabetic retinopathy, but the association of fractal dimension with incident cerebrovascular events and stroke retained statistical significance (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.57, 0.95] and HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.54, 0.97], respectively). Associations of retinal traits with CHD were generally weak and showed no evidence of statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension were associated with incident cerebrovascular events, independent of a wide range of traditional cardiovascular risk factors including diabetic retinopathy. These findings suggest potential for measurements of early retinal vasculature change to aid in the identification of people with type 2 diabetes who are at increased risk from stroke.

Depression as a risk factor for dementia in older people with type 2 diabetes and the mediating effect of inflammation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine the association of depression with dementia risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and to explore the possible mediating role of inflammation in this relationship. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes aged 60-75 years. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate the association between depression, assessed at baseline, and subsequent risk of dementia over 10 years. Depression was defined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, while incident dementia was defined using medical records, prescription data and death certificates. The potential mediating effect of systemic inflammation was assessed by adjusting models for a generalised inflammation factor, derived from four inflammatory markers measured at baseline (C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α and fibrinogen), and carrying out an exploratory mediation analysis. RESULTS: Dementia developed in 105 participants over a median follow-up of 10.6 years. After adjusting for age and sex, depression was associated with over a 2.5-fold increase in risk of dementia (HR 2.59 [95% CI 1.62, 4.15]). Additional adjustment for the generalised inflammation factor and other covariates did not attenuate the size of association between depression and incident dementia and mediation analysis showed that it was not a mediator. Adjusted logistic regression models showed cross-sectional associations of C-reactive protein and IL-6 with depression. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Depression is an important risk factor for dementia in people with type 2 diabetes. Some inflammatory markers were associated with depression, but systemic inflammation does not appear to mediate the relationship between depression and dementia. Graphical abstract.

Retinal venular tortuosity and fractal dimension predict incident retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to determine whether a range of prespecified retinal vessel traits were associated with incident diabetic retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the prospective observational cohort Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study of 1066 adults with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75 years at recruitment, 718 were free from diabetic retinopathy at baseline. Baseline retinal traits including vessel widths, tortuosity (curvature) and fractal dimensions (network complexity), were quantified using fundus camera images and semiautomated software, and analysed using logistic regression for their association with incident diabetic retinopathy over 10 years. RESULTS: The incidence of diabetic retinopathy was 11.4% (n = 82) over 10 years. After adjustment for a range of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors, both increased venular tortuosity (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15, 1.98; p = 0.003) and decreased fractal dimension (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.58, 0.96; p = 0.025) were associated with incident retinopathy. There was no evidence of an association with arterial tortuosity, and associations between measurements of vessel widths and retinopathy lost statistical significance after adjustment for diabetes-related factors and vascular disease. Adding venular tortuosity to a model including established risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (HbA1c, BP and kidney function) improved the discriminative ability (C statistic increased from 0.624 to 0.640, p = 0.013), but no such benefit was found with fractal dimension. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Increased retinal venular tortuosity and decreased fractal dimension are associated with incident diabetic retinopathy, independent of classical risk factors. There is some evidence that venular tortuosity may be a useful biomarker to improve the predictive ability of models based on established retinopathy risk factors, and its inclusion in further risk prediction modelling is warranted.

Non-invasive risk scores do not reliably identify future cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma in Type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increased in Type 2 diabetes, primarily secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). European guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in Type 2 diabetes. American guidelines, while not advocating a screening protocol, suggest using non-invasive markers of fibrosis for risk-stratification and guiding onward referral. AIMS: To test the ability of individual fibrosis scores and the European screening algorithm to predict 11-year incident cirrhosis/HCC in an asymptomatic community cohort of older people with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study investigated men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n = 1066, aged 60-75 at baseline). Liver markers were measured at baseline and year 1; steatosis and fibrosis markers were calculated according to independently published calculations. During 11 years of follow-up, cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified. RESULTS: Forty-three out of 1059 participants with no baseline cirrhosis/HCC developed incident disease. All scores were significantly associated with incident liver disease by odds ratio (P < .05). The ability of the risk-stratification tools to accurately identify those who developed incident cirrhosis/HCC was poor with low-positive predictive values (5-46%) and high false-negative and -positive rates (up to 60% and 77%) respectively. When fibrosis risk scores were used in conjunction with the European algorithm, they performed modestly better than when applied in isolation. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with a moderately low incidence of cirrhosis/HCC, existing risk scores did not reliably identify participants at high risk. Better prediction models for cirrhosis/HCC in people with Type 2 diabetes are required.

The Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis (Proof-ATHERO) Consortium: Design and Rationale.

Atherosclerosis - the pathophysiological mechanism shared by most cardiovascular diseases - can be directly or indirectly assessed by a variety of clinical tests including measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, -ankle-brachial index, pulse wave velocity, and coronary -artery calcium. The Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis -(Proof-ATHERO) consortium (https://clinicalepi.i-med.ac.at/research/proof-athero/) collates de-identified individual-participant data of studies with information on atherosclerosis measures, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and incidence of cardiovascular diseases. It currently comprises 74 studies that involve 106,846 participants from 25 countries and over 40 cities. In summary, 21 studies recruited participants from the general population (n = 67,784), 16 from high-risk populations (n = 22,677), and 37 as part of clinical trials (n = 16,385). Baseline years of contributing studies range from April 1980 to July 2014; the latest follow-up was until June 2019. Mean age at baseline was 59 years (standard deviation: 10) and 50% were female. Over a total of 830,619 person-years of follow-up, 17,270 incident cardiovascular events (including coronary heart disease and stroke) and 13,270 deaths were recorded, corresponding to cumulative incidences of 2.1% and 1.6% per annum, respectively. The consortium is coordinated by the Clinical Epidemiology Team at the Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria. Contributing studies undergo a detailed data cleaning and harmonisation procedure before being incorporated in the Proof-ATHERO central database. Statistical analyses are being conducted according to pre-defined analysis plans and use established methods for individual-participant data meta-analysis. Capitalising on its large sample size, the multi-institutional collaborative Proof-ATHERO consortium aims to better characterise, understand, and predict the development of atherosclerosis and its clinical consequences.

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9.

BACKGROUND: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. METHODS: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. RESULTS: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Cardiovascular disease biomarkers are associated with declining renal function in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated whether biochemical cardiovascular risk factors and/or markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease were associated with the development of reduced renal function in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 1066 Scottish men and women aged 60-74 years with type 2 diabetes from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study were followed up for a median of 6.7 years. New-onset reduced renal function was defined as two eGFRs <60 ml-1 min-1 (1.73 m)-2 at least 3 months apart with a > 25% decline from baseline eGFR. Ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) were measured at baseline. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and carotid intima media thickness were measured 1 year into follow-up. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 119 participants developed reduced renal function during follow-up. ABI, PWV, NT-proBNP and hsTnT were all associated with onset of decline in renal function following adjustment for age and sex. These associations were attenuated after adjustment for additional diabetes renal disease risk factors (systolic BP, baseline eGFR, albumin:creatinine ratio and smoking pack-years), with the exception of hsTnT which remained independently associated (HR 1.51 [95% CI 1.22, 1.87]). Inclusion of hsTnT in a predictive model improved the continuous net reclassification index by 0.165 (0.008, 0.286). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings demonstrate an association between hsTnT, a marker of subclinical cardiac ischaemia, and subsequent renal function decline. Further research is required to establish the predictive value of hsTnT and response to intervention.

Urinary peptidomics in a rodent model of diabetic nephropathy highlights epidermal growth factor as a biomarker for renal deterioration in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Many diabetic patients suffer from declining renal function without developing albuminuria. To identify alternative biomarkers for diabetic nephropathy (DN) we performed urinary peptidomic analysis in a rodent model in which hyperglycemia and hypertension synergize to promote renal pathologic changes consistent with human DN. We identified 297 increased and 15 decreased peptides in the urine of rats with DN compared with controls, including peptides derived from proteins associated with DN and novel candidate biomarkers. We confirmed by ELISA that one of the parent proteins, urinary epidermal growth factor (uEGF), was more than 2-fold reduced in rats with DN in comparison with controls. To assess the clinical utility of uEGF we examined renal outcomes in 642 participants from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study who were normoalbuminuric and had preserved renal function at baseline. After adjustment for established renal risk factors, a lower uEGF to creatinine ratio was associated with new-onset estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min per 1.73m(2) (odds ratio 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.90), rapid (over 5% per annum) decline in renal function (odds ratio 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.72) or the composite of both outcomes (odds ratio 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.62). Thus, the utility of a low uEGF to creatinine ratio as a biomarker of progressive decline in renal function in normoalbuminuric patients should be assessed in additional populations.

γ-Glutamyltransferase, but not markers of hepatic fibrosis, is associated with cardiovascular disease in older people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined the association of prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) with chronic liver disease in a cohort of community-based people with type 2 diabetes, in order to clarify the relationship between these two important conditions. METHODS: 1,066 participants with type 2 diabetes aged 60-75 years underwent assessment of a range of liver injury markers (non-specific injury, steatosis, steatohepatitis, fibrosis, portal hypertension). Individuals were followed up for incident cardiovascular events. RESULTS: At baseline there were 370/1,033 patients with prevalent CVD, including 317/1,033 with coronary artery disease (CAD). After a mean follow-up of 4.4 years there were 44/663 incident CVD events, including 27/663 CAD events. There were 30/82 CVD-related deaths. Risk of dying from or developing CVD was no higher in participants with steatosis than in those without (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.40, 2.00; p > 0.05). The only notable relationship was with γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) (incident CVD: adjusted HR for doubling GGT 1.24 [95% CI 0.97, 1.59] p = 0.086; incident CAD: adjusted HR 1.33 [95% CI 1.00, 1.78] p = 0.053), suggesting that in our study population, chronic liver disease may have little effect on the development of, or mortality from, CVD. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: An independent association between GGT and CVD warrants further exploration as a potentially useful addition to current cardiovascular risk prediction models in diabetes. However, overall findings failed to suggest that there is a clinical or pathophysiological association between chronic liver disease and CVD in elderly people with type 2 diabetes.

Cardiovascular risk factors and cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to assess the role of well-established cardiovascular risk factors in the late-life cognitive decline of patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data from 831 participants (aged 60-75 years) attending the 4 year follow-up of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS) were used. Smoking history (pack-years), BP, HbA1c, plasma glucose and cholesterol were determined at baseline clinics (single time measurements) and/or from serial data recorded on a clinical management database from diagnosis until recruitment ('historical' data). Principal component analysis derived a factor, g, of general ability from seven cognitive tests. Linear regression models of follow-up g were adjusted for baseline g to represent 4 year cognitive change. 'Accelerated late-life cognitive decline' was defined as scoring in the lowest tertile of '4 year cognitive change' regression scores. Analyses controlled for age and sex. RESULTS: A baseline history of moderate/heavy smoking (≥ 10 pack-years) and a 1% increased historical HbA1c (equivalent to an increase by 11 mmol/mol) predicted a 64% (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14, 2.34; p = 0.007) and 21% (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.00, 1.45; p = 0.046) increased risk of accelerated cognitive decline, respectively. When treated as continuous measures, higher pack-years, historical HbA1c and historical BP emerged as significant independent predictors of 4 year decline in g (standardised ß range -0.07 to -0.14; all p ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Increased smoking and poorer glycaemic control (with relatively weaker findings for BP) during the life-course were independently associated with accelerated late-life cognitive decline. Where possible, evaluation is warranted of these risk factors as targets for intervention to reduce the burden of cognitive impairment in diabetes.

Hypofibrinolysis in type 2 diabetes: the role of the inflammatory pathway and complement C3.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) has been regarded as the main antifibrinolytic protein in diabetes, but recent work indicates that complement C3 (C3), an inflammatory protein, directly compromises fibrinolysis in type 1 diabetes. The aim of the current project was to investigate associations between C3 and fibrinolysis in a large cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Plasma levels of C3, C-reactive protein (CRP), PAI-1 and fibrinogen were analysed by ELISA in 837 patients enrolled in the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. Fibrin clot lysis was analysed using a validated turbidimetric assay. RESULTS: Clot lysis time correlated with C3 and PAI-1 plasma levels (r = 0.24, p < 0.001 and r = 0.22, p < 0.001, respectively). In a multivariable regression model involving age, sex, BMI, C3, PAI-1, CRP and fibrinogen, and using log-transformed data as appropriate, C3 was associated with clot lysis time (regression coefficient 0.227 [95% CI 0.161, 0.292], p < 0.001), as was PAI-1 (regression coefficient 0.033 [95% CI 0.020, 0.064], p < 0.05) but not fibrinogen (regression coefficient 0.003 [95% CI -0.046, 0.051], p = 0.92) or CRP (regression coefficient 0.024 [95% CI -0.008, 0.056], p = 0.14). No correlation was demonstrated between plasma levels of C3 and PAI-1 (r = -0.03, p = 0.44), consistent with previous observations that the two proteins affect different pathways in the fibrinolytic system. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Similarly to PAI-1, C3 plasma levels are independently associated with fibrin clot lysis in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Therefore, future studies should analyse C3 plasma levels as a surrogate marker of fibrinolysis potential in this population.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and risk of cardiovascular events in older patients with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with traditional cardiovascular risk factors and incident cardiovascular events in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the prospective phase of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, 1066 men and women aged 60 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus were followed for 4 years; 112 participants had an incident cardiovascular event. At baseline, cardiovascular risk factors, pre-existing cardiovascular disease and levels of NT-proBNP were evaluated. RESULTS: Raised plasma NT-proBNP levels were associated with these classical cardiovascular risk factors: increased duration of diabetes, use of insulin, raised BMI, reduced HDL-cholesterol, reduced renal function and use of lipid-lowering and anti-hypertensive medication (all p < 0.05). In the prospective analysis, NT-proBNP was strongly associated with subsequent risk of all cardiovascular disease events (HR per one SD increase in NT-proBNP 1.39; 95% CI 1.10, 1.75), independent of cardiovascular risk factors traditionally used to predict vascular events. NT-proBNP was also independently associated with incident coronary artery disease events (1.48, 95% CI 1.10, 1.98). The addition of NT-proBNP to multivariate models improved the C-index by 0.019 for the 'hard' cardiac endpoint (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In older people with type 2 diabetes, NT-proBNP is associated with the development of coronary and cerebrovascular events, independent of a wide range of other vascular and metabolic risk factors, and may prove a useful addition to current vascular risk scores in diabetes populations.

Using non-invasive biomarkers to identify hepatic fibrosis in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is difficult to determine the different stages of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease without the use of invasive liver biopsy. In this study we investigated five non-invasive biomarkers used previously to detect hepatic fibrosis and determined the level of agreement between them in order to inform future research. METHODS: In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, a population-based cohort aged 60-74 years with type 2 diabetes, 831 participants underwent ultrasound assessment for fatty liver and had serum aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AST/ALT), aspartate to platelet ratio index (APRI), European Liver Fibrosis panel (ELF), Fibrosis-4 Score (FIB4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) measured. RESULTS: Literature based cut-offs yielded marked differences in the proportions of the cohort with probable liver fibrosis in the full cohort. Agreement between the top 5% of the distribution for each biomarker pair was poor. APRI and FIB4 had the best positive agreement at 76.4%, but agreement for all of the other serum biomarker pairs was between 18% and 34%. Agreement with LSM was poor (9-16%). CONCLUSIONS: We found poor correlation between the five biomarkers of liver fibrosis studied. Using the top 5% of each biomarker resulted in good agreement on the absence of advanced liver disease but poor agreement on the presence of advanced disease. Further work is required to validate these markers against liver biopsy and to determine their predictive value for clinical liver-related endpoints, in a range of different low and high risk population groups.

Non-invasive hepatic biomarkers (ELF and CK18) in people with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Type 2 diabetes is an established risk factor for the presence and progression of fatty liver. Little is known about the distributions and correlates of hepatic non-invasive biomarkers in community-based populations with diabetes, unselected for liver disease. We aimed to identify the distribution of, and metabolic risk factors associated with serum cytokeratin-18 (CK18) and the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score (ELF), in a large, representative cohort of people with type 2 diabetes (the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, ET2DS). METHODS: Nine hundred and thirty-nine ET2DS participants, aged 60-74 years underwent physical examination including ultrasound for assessment of liver fat. Representative subgroups were assessed for markers of chronic liver disease (CK18 and ELF). RESULTS: CK18 values ranged from 29-993 U/L (median 102, IQR 76-137 U/L) and ELF scores ranged from 6.9-11.6 (mean 8.9, SD 0.8). Statistically significant associations were found between both biomarkers and a number of metabolic risk factors. Neither CK18 nor ELF was consistently or strongly associated with established hepatic risk factors (alcohol excess, hepatotoxic medication use and positive immunology titres). CONCLUSIONS: We identified the distribution of CK18 and ELF in a large cohort of older people with type 2 diabetes and showed that these markers are associated with an adverse metabolic risk factor profile, although much of the variation in biomarkers remained unexplained. Prospective studies are required to determine the extent to which CK18 and/or ELF predict the development of symptomatic liver disease and to identify additional risk factors which may influence the development of advanced liver disease in people with type 2 diabetes.

Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease.

IMPORTANCE: The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.

Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort. METHODS: Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed. RESULTS: Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic). CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.