Similar Time Trends of Hodgkin Lymphoma, Multiple Sclerosis, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND: The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) plays a role in the causation of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and multiple sclerosis (MS). A previous study showed that the time trends of mortality from Crohn's disease (CD) and MS shared striking similarities. It was hypothesized that such similarities would also involve the time trends of ulcerative colitis and HL. AIMS: To compare the time trends of CD and UC with those of HL and MS in 6 different countries. METHODS: Using the vital statistics of England, Canada, Netherlands, Scotland, Switzerland, and United States from 1951 to 2020, the time trends of mortality from these 4 diseases were compared. The time-dependent changes of death rates were subjected to a birth-cohort analysis. RESULTS: Similar trends were observed in all 6 countries. UC mortality rose among generations born during the nineteenth century and decreased among all generations born subsequently during the twentieth century. CD mortality was similarly characterized by a birth-cohort pattern with a rise and fall that were shifted by 20-30 years towards more recent generations when compared to UC. The birth-cohort pattern of UC was matched by a similar pattern of HL, whereas the birth-cohort pattern of CD was matched by a similar pattern of MS. CONCLUSIONS: The similarities in the ubiquitous birth-cohort patterns of UC, CD, HL, and MS suggest that these 4 diseases share a common environmental risk factor. Such risk factor may be linked to EBV or its acquisition during an early period of a patient's lifetime.

Incidence and geographic distribution of retinoblastoma in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Retinoblastoma is the most frequent intraocular malignancy of the eye in children, occurring in early childhood. Based on global estimates, Ethiopia is expected to observe over 200 new retinoblastoma cases per year, however without a cancer registry, this number is difficult to confirm. Therefore, the goal of the study was to determine the incidence and geographic distribution of retinoblastoma in Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective medical chart review of clinically diagnosed new retinoblastoma patients between January 1, 2017 - December 31, 2020, in four public Ethiopian tertiary hospitals was performed. The incidence of retinoblastoma was calculated by a birth-cohort analysis. RESULTS: There were 221 retinoblastoma patients observed in the study period. The incidence of retinoblastoma was found to be 1 in 52,156 live births. Incidence varied among different regions of Ethiopia. CONCLUSION: The incidence of retinoblastoma observed in this study is likely an underestimate. It is possible that patients were undercounted because they were seen outside of the 4 main retinoblastoma treatment facilities included in this facility, or they experienced barriers to accessing care. Our study suggests a need for a nationwide retinoblastoma registry and more retinoblastoma treatment centers in the country.

Decoding the mystery of American pain reveals a warning for the future.

There is an expectation that, on average, pain will increase with age, through accumulated injury, physical wear and tear, and an increasing burden of disease. Consistent with that expectation, pain rises with age into old age in other wealthy countries. However, in America today, the elderly report less pain than those in midlife. This is the mystery of American pain. Using multiple datasets and definitions of pain, we show today's midlife Americans have had more pain throughout adulthood than did today's elderly. Disaggregating the cross-section of ages by year of birth and completion of a bachelor's degree, we find, for those with less education, that each successive birth cohort has a higher prevalence of pain at each age-a result not found for those with a bachelor's degree. Thus, the gap in pain between the more and less educated has widened in each successive birth cohort. The increase seen across birth cohorts cannot be explained by changes in occupation or levels of obesity for the less educated, but fits a more general pattern seen in the ongoing erosion of working-class life for those born after 1950. If these patterns continue, pain prevalence will continue to increase for all adults; importantly, tomorrow's elderly will be sicker than today's elderly, with potentially serious implications for healthcare.

Gender disparities in incidence and projections of lung cancer in China and the United States from 1978 to 2032: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: Lung cancer incidences tend to be higher among males than females in both China and the United States, yet secular incidence patterns are different due to distinct population and environmental exposures. We examined long-term and future trends of lung cancer incidence, as well as the associations of age, period, and cohort effects with gender disparities. METHODS: Using data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1978 to 2012, we calculated age-standardized, age-specific incidence, and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR), and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the trends was obtained by Joinpoint Regression. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was also conducted to project incidences to 2032. RESULTS: In China, age-standardized incidence revealed a decreasing trend among males, but showed increasing trends among the younger age groups (30-54 years) in females. Age-standardized incidence rates of males decreased but remained stable among females from 1972 to 2012 in the United States. Male-to-female incidence rate ratios narrowed in both countries and reversed among younger birth cohorts in the United States. Gender disparities are expected to continue to diminish in both countries, and incidence among females appears to exceed that of males in the United States by around 2023-2027. CONCLUSION: Gender disparities in lung cancer incidence persist and will continue into the future in both countries, but our findings suggested that smoking may play different roles in gender disparities in lung cancer incidence between the two countries. Further population-based epidemiological studies among females in China are imperative.

Changing incidence and projections of thyroid cancer in mainland China, 1983-2032: evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

PURPOSE: An increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been seen in China during the past several decades. The aim of this study was to analyze potential age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in mainland China and to predict new cases up to 2032. METHODS: We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer, conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 35,037 thyroid cancer incidence cases reported to Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1983 to 2012 in mainland China, and predicted incidence up to 2032 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort method. RESULTS: The age-adjusted overall incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased from 1.93/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 12.18/100,000 in 2008-2012 among females and from 0.77/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 3.89/100,000 in 2008-2012 among males, with a female-to-male ratio of approximately 3.0 during the three decades. Strong birth cohort and period effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed for both sexes, and such an increasing trend is predicted to continue for at least the next 20 years. More than 3.7 million new cases are projected in the 2028-2032 period. CONCLUSION: The increasing trend of thyroid cancer in mainland China will cause a great burden in the future. In addition to the potential impact of improvement in medical diagnostics, potential exposure to risk factors have played a role in the observed rising trend. Further population-based epidemiologic studies are required to identify risk factors to aid in thyroid cancer prevention and control.

Incidence, mortality and survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma before and after asbestos in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare but fatal cancer, which is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Reliable information about the incidence of MPM prior the influence of asbestos is lacking. The nationwide regional incidence trends for MPM remain poorly characterized. We use nationwide MPM data for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) to assess incidence, mortality and survival trends for MPM in these countries. METHODS: We use the NORDCAN database for the analyses: incidence data were available from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1958 in SE, through 2016. Survival data were available from 1967 through 2016. World standard population was used in age standardization. RESULTS: The lowest incidence that we recorded for MPM was 0.02/100,000 for NO women and 0.05/100,000 for FI men in 1953-57, marking the incidence before the influence of asbestos. The highest rate of 1.9/100,000 was recorded for DK in 1997. Female incidence was much lower than male incidence. In each country, the male incidence trend for MPM culminated, first in SE around 1990. The regional incidence trends matched with earlier asbestos-related industrial activity, shipbuilding in FI and SE, cement manufacturing and shipbuilding in DK and seafaring in NO. Relative 1-year survival increased from about 20 to 50% but 5-year survival remained at or below 10%. CONCLUSION: In the Nordic countries, the male incidence trends for MPM climaxed and started to decrease, indicating that the prevention of exposure was beneficial. Survival in MPM has improved for both sexes but long-term survival remains dismal.

Similar birth-cohort patterns in Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The etiology of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis is unknown. Genetic susceptibility and environmental factors are believed to play a role in both diseases. OBJECTIVES: To compare the long-term time trends of the two diseases and thus gain insight about their etiology. METHODS: We analyzed mortality data of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis from Canada, England, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States during the past 60 years. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses based on logit models served to disentangle the separate influences of age, period, and cohort effects on the overall time trends. RESULTS: The long-term time trends of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis have been shaped by strikingly similar birth-cohort patterns. In both diseases alike, mortality increased in all generations born prior to 1910. It peaked among generations born between 1910 and 1930 and then declined in all subsequent generations. Similar birth-cohort patterns of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis were found in each country analyzed separately. CONCLUSION: The birth-cohort patterns indicate that the development of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis is influenced by exposure to environmental risk factors during an early period of life. These environmental risk factors may be similar or even identical in Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis.

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019): insights from Global Burden of Diseases data.

BACKGROUND: This study examines lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019) through age-period-cohort (A-P-C) analysis and Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data, unravelling the complex interplay of age, period, and birth cohort in shaping these trends. METHODS: Utilizing GBD and Spanish population data, the study calculates age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and employs Joinpoint analysis to identify significant trends. A-P-C analysis dissects the individual effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on incidence patterns. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, almost 738,000 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed in Spain, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. The ASIR of lung cancer in Spain from 1990 to 2019 showed a sustained upward trend in women (Average Annual Per cent Change: 2.5%, P < 0.05), reaching 23.3 cases per 100,000 in 2019, whilst men experienced a significant decrease in incidence rates (AAPC: -0.6%, P < 0.05), falling to 108.9 in 2019. The male-to-female incidence ratio decreased from 12.2 in 1992 to 4.9 in 2019. Joinpoint analysis identified distinct periods for both sexes, with men showing stability, decline and then a significant decrease, whereas women showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. The longitudinal age curves showed a consistently higher incidence risk in men, peaking in the 80-84 age group. Male cohorts since the 1920s showed a decreasing relative risk, whereas women showed fluctuations in risk over time. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer rates are falling in Spain, especially amongst men, due to lower smoking rates. The gender gap is closing, but prevention targeted at women is needed. Tighter tobacco control and research into other risk factors are essential. Understanding the long-term effects of smoking and early exposure is key to better prevention and treatment in Spain.

Changes in Gender Inequality and Intimate Partner Violence From 1958-2003: A Birth Cohort Analysis.

This article uses a birth cohort analysis to examine whether the sociopolitical environments in which a woman forms attitudes around intimate partner violence (IPV) influence report of physical, sexual, and emotional IPV, and IPV justification in 25 low- and middle-income countries. Cohort effect is then examined across countries by rate of decline in gender inequality over time as measured by the Gender Inequality Index (GII). Results suggest a birth cohort effect for all types of IPV, with women reporting greater odds of IPV with each successive cohort. This is reversed when countries are stratified by rate of GII decrease, but wanes as the rate slows.

A century of sexual abuse victimisation: A birth cohort analysis.

This study examined changes in the reported prevalence of adult and child sexual abuse over the last century and explored how changes in social and political circumstances may have affected rates. Data from two population-based face-to-face surveys conducted in New Zealand (samples of 2855 women in 2003 and 1464 women in 2019) were used to produce birth cohort prevalence estimates of three forms of sexual abuse including by an intimate partner (lifetime and 12-month), by non-partners, and child sexual abuse. A timeline of major population influences that might be associated with violence occurrence was developed. There were no changes in reported lifetime intimate partner sexual abuse prevalence estimates found over the past century. The most recent birth cohort reported the lowest rates of 12-month prevalence estimates for intimate partner sexual abuse, lifetime rates of non-partner sexual abuse, and also suggest lower reported rates of child sexual abuse. Macro-social events including feminist movements, changes in legislation, and an increase in public awareness might have contributed to women's awareness about the non-acceptability of violent behaviour, and their ability to leave relationships after violence has occurred. This may have contributed to the small recent decreases in reported 12-month rate of sexual IPV and CSA, as women's ability to leave relationships may be protective for their children. The recent decrease in reported non-partner sexual violence may also be attributed to women's greater awareness of, and agency to avoid sexual abuse. The lack of change for the lifetime prevalence of sexual IPV over the past century highlights the need for ongoing prevention efforts. While recent reductions in reported rates of child and adult sexual abuse are encouraging, even reduced rates are high and warrant sustained implementation of prevention policies and programs.