Changing incidence and projections of thyroid cancer in mainland China, 1983-2032: evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

PURPOSE: An increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been seen in China during the past several decades. The aim of this study was to analyze potential age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in mainland China and to predict new cases up to 2032. METHODS: We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer, conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 35,037 thyroid cancer incidence cases reported to Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1983 to 2012 in mainland China, and predicted incidence up to 2032 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort method. RESULTS: The age-adjusted overall incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased from 1.93/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 12.18/100,000 in 2008-2012 among females and from 0.77/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 3.89/100,000 in 2008-2012 among males, with a female-to-male ratio of approximately 3.0 during the three decades. Strong birth cohort and period effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed for both sexes, and such an increasing trend is predicted to continue for at least the next 20 years. More than 3.7 million new cases are projected in the 2028-2032 period. CONCLUSION: The increasing trend of thyroid cancer in mainland China will cause a great burden in the future. In addition to the potential impact of improvement in medical diagnostics, potential exposure to risk factors have played a role in the observed rising trend. Further population-based epidemiologic studies are required to identify risk factors to aid in thyroid cancer prevention and control.

Lung cancer incidence in young women vs. young men: A systematic analysis in 40 countries.

Previous studies have reported converging lung cancer rates between sexes. We examine lung cancer incidence rates in young women vs. young men in 40 countries across five continents. Lung and bronchial cancer cases by 5-year age group (ages 30-64) and 5-year calendar period (1993-2012) were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Female-to-male incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated by age group and birth cohort. Among men, age-specific lung cancer incidence rates generally decreased in all countries, while in women the rates varied across countries with the trends in most countries stable or declining, albeit at a slower pace compared to those in men. As a result, the female-to-male IRRs increased among recent birth cohorts, with IRRs significantly greater than unity in Canada, Denmark, Germany, New Zealand, the Netherlands and the United States. For example, the IRRs in ages 45-49 year in the Netherlands increased from 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6-0.8) to 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.7) in those born circa 1948 and 1963, respectively. Similar patterns, though nonsignificant, were found in 23 additional countries. These crossovers were largely driven by increasing adenocarcinoma incidence rates in women. For those countries with historical smoking data, smoking prevalence in women approached, but rarely exceeded, those of men. In conclusion, the emerging higher lung cancer incidence rates in young women compared to young men is widespread and not fully explained by sex differences in smoking patterns. Future studies are needed to identify reasons for the elevated incidence of lung cancer among young women.

The burden of prostate cancer in Asian nations.

INTRODUCTION: In this review, the International Agency for Research on Cancer's cancer epidemiology databases were used to examine prostate cancer (PCa) age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) in selected Asian nations, including Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) and GLOBOCAN databases, in an effort to determine whether ASIRs are rising in regions of the world with historically low risk of PCa development. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Asian nations with adequate data quality were considered for this review. PCa ASIR estimates from CI5 and GLOBOCAN 2008 public use databases were examined in the four eligible countries: China, Japan, Korea and Singapore. Time trends in PCa ASIRs were examined using CI5 Volumes I-IX. RESULTS: While PCa ASIRs remain much lower in the Asian nations examined than in North America, there is a clear trend of increasing PCa ASIRs in the four countries examined. CONCLUSION: Efforts to systematically collect cancer incidence data in Asian nations must be expanded. Current CI5 data indicate a rise in PCa ASIR in several populous Asian countries. If these rates continue to rise, it is uncertain whether there will be sufficient resources in place, in terms of trained personnel and infrastructure for medical treatment and continuum of care, to handle the increase in PCa patient volume. The recommendation by some experts to initiate PSA screening in Asian nations could compound a resource shortfall. Obtaining accurate estimates of PCa incidence in these countries is critically important for preparing for a potential shift in the public health burden posed by this disease.

Long-term survival trends for primary liver and pancreatic cancers in the Nordic countries.

Background & Aims: Liver cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) are often diagnosed at an advanced stage resulting in high mortality. High-quality survival data are rarely available for trend analyses over a long period. Methods: The Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish cancer data were accessed at the NORDCAN database. We analysed relative 1- and 5-year survival trends in LC and PC between years 1970 and 2019. Results: Relative 1-year survival in LC for Nordic men and women was about 10% in the period between 1970 and 1974, and it increased moderately by year 2000 and steeply thereafter, eventually reaching 40-50%. The patterns in 5-year survival were similar, but after the year 2000, survival in Norway and Sweden increased steeply to 23%, whereas survival in Denmark and Finland lagged behind, reaching 10% to 15%. The patterns for PC also showed rapid improvement after the year 2000, with 1-year survival reaching 30% to 40% and 5-year survival reaching 10% for Finland and 15% for Norway and Sweden. Survival was best for patients diagnosed before age 50 years, and it was worst for older patients. For both cancers the difference between 1- and 5-year survival increased with time. Conclusions: Survival in LC and PC improved first modestly and then steeply over the 50-year period covered. The increase in 5-year survival was less than that of 1-year survival. The survival gains were most likely the result of earlier diagnosis, improved treatment, and better organised supportive care. The challenges are to keep up these positive trends, to extend survival benefits past Year 1, and to obtain similar results in elderly patients. Primary prevention through avoidance of risk factors would reduce case numbers. Lay summary: Liver and pancreatic cancers are among the most lethal of all cancers. In 50 years, survival in these cancers has slowly improved, and in the past 20 years, the development has been increasingly favourable. Widespread adoption of healthy lifestyles will be key to reducing the risk of these cancers.

Impact of tobacco control policies implementation on future lung cancer incidence in Europe: An international, population-based modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent trends in declining smoking rates, tobacco smoking remains the most preventable cause of cancer in Europe. We aimed to estimate numbers and proportions of future lung cancer cases that could be potentially prevented over a 20-year period if countries in Europe were to achieve a comprehensive implementation of tobacco control policies. METHODS: Historical data from population-based cancer incidence (or mortality) was used to predict sex-specific lung cancer incidence for 30 European countries up to 2037. Hypothetical country-specific smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries would have achieved the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies (defined by the maximum total score of the Tobacco Control Scale, TCS) was estimated by combining national prevalence data on current smoking and data on the status of implementation of key tobacco control policies. Resulting numbers and proportions of potentially preventable lung cancer cases were estimated taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and excess cancer risks. FINDINGS: In Europe, an estimated 1·65 million lung cancer cases (21·2%, 19·8% in men and 23·2% in women) could be prevented over a 20-year period with the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies. Large variation was seen in European regions and countries reflecting the current level of tobacco control, with the largest potential for prevention in Western Europe (24·5%), Southern Europe (23·1%) and Eastern Europe (22·5%), and the lowest but still substantial potential for further prevention in Northern Europe (12·5%). In women, among whom lung cancer incidence is expected to increase, we estimated somewhat larger proportions of preventable lung cancer cases ranging from 9·9 to 33·9% as compared to men (8·6-28·5%). In the final year of study period (2037), these proportions even exceed 50% in women for some countries. INTERPRETATION: Improved and expanded implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies at the most comprehensive level could reduce future lung cancer incidence considerably across Europe. FUNDING: The study was funded by the German Cancer Aid ("Deutsche Krebshilfe"), grant number 70112097.