Pollution sources and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in soils of multiple land use types in the arid zone of Northwest China based on Monte Carlo simulation.

The concentration of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soils of different land-use types varies depending on climatic conditions and human. Topsoil samples were collected in Northwest China to investigate PTE pollution and risk in different land uses, and thereby estimate the risk of various pollution sources. The results showed that human activity had an impact on PTE concentrations in the study area across all land use types, with farmland, grassland, woodland, and the gobi at moderate pollution levels and the desert at light pollution levels. Different PTE sources pose different risks depending on the land-use type. Apart from deserts, children are exposed to carcinogenic risk from a variety of sources. A mixed natural and agricultural source was the main source of public health risk in the study area, contributing 38.7% and 39.0% of the non-carcinogenic and 40.7% and 35.5% of the carcinogenic risks, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations showed children were at a higher health risk from PTEs than adult s under all land uses, which ranked in severity as farmland > woodland > grassland > gobi > desert. As and Ni has a higher probability of posing both a non-carcinogenic and a carcinogenic risk to children. Sensitivity analysis showed that the contribution of parameters to the assessment model of PTEs exhibited the following contribution pattern: concentration > average body weight > ingestion rate > other parameters. The PTEs affecting the risk assessment model were not common among different land use types, where the importance distribution pattern of each parameter was basically the same in woodland, grassland, and farmland, and Ni contributed the most to carcinogenic risk. However, Cr contributed the most to the carcinogenic risk in the desert and gobi.

Probabilistic human health risk assessment of PCDD/Fs near municipal solid-waste incinerator using Monte Carlo analysis coupled with triangular fuzzy numbers.

PCDD/Fs are dioxins produced by waste incineration and pose risks to human health. We aimed to detail the health risks of airborne and soil PCDD/Fs near a municipal solid-waste incinerator (MSWI) for the surrounding population and develop a new model that improves upon existing methods. Thus, we conducted field sampling and then investigated a MSWI in the Pearl River Delta (2016-2018). Our results showed that the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk values of PCDD/Fs exposed to residents in nearby areas were acceptable, with hazard index (HI) values lower than 1.0 and a total carcinogenic risk lower than 1.0E-6. Notably, the results raised concerns regarding higher non-carcinogenic risks in children than in adults. Comparative analysis of the frequency accumulation diagram, accumulated probability risk, and the absolute value of error (δ) between the 95% confidence interval (CI) and the 90% CI of the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation-triangular fuzzy number (MCSS-TFN) and the MCSS model, respectively, demonstrated that the MCSS-TFN exhibited less uncertainty than the MCSS model, regardless of the health risk value of PCDD/Fs in ambient air or in soil. This observation underscores the superiority of the MCSS-TFN model over other models in assessing the health risks associated with PCDD/Fs in situations with limited data. Our new method overcomes the limited dataset size and high uncertainty in assessing the health risks of dioxin substances, providing a more comprehensive understanding of their associated health risks than MCSS models.

Quantifying the risk of mass shootings at specific locations.

Mass shootings are horrific events that annually take scores of innocent lives in the United States. Federal, state, and local governments as well as educational, religious, and private-sector organizations propose and enact polices and strategies to protect people from and during active shooter situations. A probabilistic risk assessment of a mass shooting for a specific organization, jurisdiction, or location can be the first step toward evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies and determining which strategies might be most appropriate for a location. This article proposes a novel hierarchical method to assess the probability of a mass shooting at specific locations based on available historical data. First, the method generates a probability distribution over the annual number of mass shootings in the United States. Second, the article uses this national number of mass shootings to determine the risk for each state. Third, the state risk assessment is decomposed to calculate the probability of a mass shooting in a specific location such as a school. Multiple ways to assess the risk are presented, leading to slightly different probability assessments for a location. Results indicate that annual probability of a mass shooting in the largest high school in California is on the order of 10 - 6 - 10 - 5 $10^{-6}-10^{-5}$ , and the annual probability of a mass shooting in the largest high school in Iowa is about half as likely as in the California school.

Reducing uncertainty in dose-response assessments by incorporating Bayesian benchmark dose modeling and in vitro data on population variability.

There are two primary sources of uncertainty in the interpretability of toxicity values, like the reference dose (RfD): estimates of the point of departure (POD) and the absence of chemical-specific human variability data. We hypothesize two solutions-employing Bayesian benchmark dose (BBMD) modeling to refine POD determination and combining high-throughput toxicokinetic modeling with population-based toxicodynamic in vitro data to characterize chemical-specific variability. These hypotheses were tested by deriving refined probabilistic estimates for human doses corresponding to a specific effect size (M) in the Ith population percentile (HDM I) across 19 Superfund priority chemicals. HDM I values were further converted to biomonitoring equivalents in blood and urine for benchmarking against human data. Compared to deterministic default-based RfDs, HDM I values were generally more protective, particularly influenced by chemical-specific data on interindividual variability. Incorporating chemical-specific in vitro data improved precision in probabilistic RfDs, with a median 1.4-fold reduction in uncertainty variance. Comparison with US Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Forecasting exposure predictions and biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey identified chemicals with margins of exposure nearing or below one. Overall, to mitigate uncertainty in regulatory toxicity values and guide chemical risk management, BBMD modeling and chemical-specific population-based human in vitro data are essential.

How useful is setting safety goals?

The study explores the multifaceted role of safety goals in fostering a risk-informed culture, reflecting the global experience within the nuclear safety domain. Analysis of the phases of transition evoked by establishing and applying safety goals sheds light on the need for epistemic, reflexive, and practical transitions for better management of nuclear safety. This pivotal role of safety goals underscores the importance of recognizing them not as ready-to-use turnkey products but as catalysts for stakeholder dialog, reassessment of existing safety paradigms, and regulatory framework refinement. Finally, this study explores the challenges associated with standardizing safety goals globally and navigating the transition process within the framework of transition management.

Report of the First ONTOX Stakeholder Network Meeting: Digging Under the Surface of ONTOX Together With the Stakeholders.

The first Stakeholder Network Meeting of the EU Horizon 2020-funded ONTOX project was held on 13-14 March 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. The discussion centred around identifying specific challenges, barriers and drivers in relation to the implementation of non-animal new approach methodologies (NAMs) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), in order to help address the issues and rank them according to their associated level of difficulty. ONTOX aims to advance the assessment of chemical risk to humans, without the use of animal testing, by developing non-animal NAMs and PRA in line with 21st century toxicity testing principles. Stakeholder groups (regulatory authorities, companies, academia, non-governmental organisations) were identified and invited to participate in a meeting and a survey, by which their current position in relation to the implementation of NAMs and PRA was ascertained, as well as specific challenges and drivers highlighted. The survey analysis revealed areas of agreement and disagreement among stakeholders on topics such as capacity building, sustainability, regulatory acceptance, validation of adverse outcome pathways, acceptance of artificial intelligence (AI) in risk assessment, and guaranteeing consumer safety. The stakeholder network meeting resulted in the identification of barriers, drivers and specific challenges that need to be addressed. Breakout groups discussed topics such as hazard versus risk assessment, future reliance on AI and machine learning, regulatory requirements for industry and sustainability of the ONTOX Hub platform. The outputs from these discussions provided insights for overcoming barriers and leveraging drivers for implementing NAMs and PRA. It was concluded that there is a continued need for stakeholder engagement, including the organisation of a 'hackathon' to tackle challenges, to ensure the successful implementation of NAMs and PRA in chemical risk assessment.

Application of probabilistic methods to address variability and uncertainty in estimating risks for non-cancer health effects.

Human health risk assessment currently uses the reference dose or reference concentration (RfD, RfC) approach to describe the level of exposure to chemical hazards without appreciable risk for non-cancer health effects in people. However, this "bright line" approach assumes that there is minimal risk below the RfD/RfC with some undefined level of increased risk at exposures above the RfD/RfC and has limited utility for decision-making. Rather than this dichotomous approach, non-cancer risk assessment can benefit from incorporating probabilistic methods to estimate the amount of risk across a wide range of exposures and define a risk-specific dose. We identify and review existing approaches for conducting probabilistic non-cancer risk assessments. Using perchloroethylene (PCE), a priority chemical for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Toxic Substances Control Act, we calculate risk-specific doses for the effects on cognitive deficits using probabilistic risk assessment approaches. Our probabilistic risk assessment shows that chronic exposure to 0.004 ppm PCE is associated with approximately 1-in-1,000 risk for a 5% reduced performance on the Wechsler Memory Scale Visual Reproduction subtest with 95% confidence. This exposure level associated with a 1-in-1000 risk for non-cancer neurocognitive deficits is lower than the current RfC for PCE of 0.0059 ppm, which is based on standard point of departure and uncertainty factor approaches for the same neurotoxic effects in occupationally exposed adults. We found that the population-level risk of cognitive deficit (indicating central nervous system dysfunction) is estimated to be greater than the cancer risk level of 1-in-100,000 at a similar chronic exposure level. The extension of toxicological endpoints to more clinically relevant endpoints, along with consideration of magnitude and severity of effect, will help in the selection of acceptable risk targets for non-cancer effects. We find that probabilistic approaches can 1) provide greater context to existing RfDs and RfCs by describing the probability of effect across a range of exposure levels including the RfD/RfC in a diverse population for a given magnitude of effect and confidence level, 2) relate effects of chemical exposures to clinical disease risk so that the resulting risk assessments can better inform decision-makers and benefit-cost analysis, and 3) better reflect the underlying biology and uncertainties of population risks.

MRTCM: A comprehensive dataset for probabilistic risk assessment of metals and metalloids in traditional Chinese medicine.

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is still considered a global complementary or alternative medical system, but exogenous hazardous contaminants remain in TCM even after decocting. Besides, it is time-consuming to conduct a risk assessment of trace elements in TCMs with a non-automatic approach due to the wide variety of TCMs. Here, we present MRTCM, a cloud-computing infrastructure for automating the probabilistic risk assessment of metals and metalloids in TCM. MRTCM includes a consumption database and a pollutant database involving forty million rows of consumption data and fourteen types of TCM potentially toxic elements concentrations. The algorithm of probabilistic risk assessment was also packaged in MRTCM to assess the risks of eight elements with Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrated that 96.64% and 99.46% had no non-carcinogenic risk (hazard indices (HI) were < 1.0) for animal and herbal medicines consumers, respectively. After twenty years of exposure, less than 1% of the total carcinogenic risk (CRt) was > 10-4 for TCM consumers, indicating that they are at potential risk for carcinogenicity. Sensitivity analysis revealed that annual consumption and concentration were the main variables affecting the assessment results. Ultimately, a priority management list of TCMs was also generated, indicating that more attention should be paid to the non-carcinogenic risks of As, Mn, and Hg and the carcinogenic risks of As and Cr in Pheretima and Cr in Arcae Conch. In general, MRTCM could significantly enhance the efficiency of risk assessment in TCM and provide reasonable guidance for policymakers to optimize risk management.

Monte Carlo-based probabilistic risk assessment for cement workers exposed to heavy metals in cement dust.

This study assessed the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks of cement plant workers exposed to chromium (Cr), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) in cement dust using a probabilistic approach. Air samples were collected according to NIOSH 7900 and OSHA ID-121 methods and analyzed by an graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometer. The EPA inhalation risk assessment model and Monte Carlo simulation were utilized to assess the health risks. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the influencing parameters on health risk. The average concentrations of As and Pb exceeded the occupational exposure limit (OEL), reaching a maximum of 3.4 and 1.7 times the OEL, respectively, in the cement mill. Individual metals' cancer risk exceeded the 1E-4 threshold in ascending order of Cd < As < Cr. The mean cancer risk of Cr ranged from 835E-4 (in raw mill) to 2870E-4 (in pre-heater and kiln). Except for Cd, the non-cancer risk of metals exceeded the standard (hazard index, HQ = 1) in the ascending order of Pb < As < Cr. The mean HQ of Cr ranged from 162.13 (in raw mill) to 558.73 (in pre-heater and kiln). After adjusting for control factors, the cancer and non-cancer risks remained over the respective recommended levels. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the concentration of Cr was the most influential parameter on both carcinogenic (78.5%) and non-carcinogenic (88.06%) risks. To protect the health of cement factory employees, it is recommended to minimize cement dust emissions, implement job rotation, and use raw materials with low levels of heavy metals.

Ecological risk of phenol on typical biota of the northern Chinese river from an integrated probability perspective: the Hun River as an example.

Phenol, known for its bioaccumulative nature and severe toxicity to riverine organisms, poses complex challenges for ecological risk assessment. To tackle this issue, we developed a three-stage incremental assessment method, providing an integrated perspective on phenol toxicity risk for aquatic organisms. The findings indicated that phenol concentrations were generally higher in the aquatic environments of northern rivers, such as the Hun River, Taizi River, and Liao River, compared to those in southern China. The evaluation results at individual points showed that the ecological risk of phenol to aquatic organisms ranked from high to low during rainy, dry, and normal seasons, showing seasonal variation characteristics. Regarding spatial variation along the river, the ecological risk of phenol gradually increased from upper reaches, peaked in the middle reaches, and then decreased in the lower reaches. Considering the different species types, fish face a higher risk of toxic effects of phenol than invertebrates when exposed to phenol over a long period of time, probably due to the bioaccumulative nature of phenol. To address ecological risk control at the watershed scale, there is an urgent need to revise China's current river water quality standards. It is essential to increase the emphasis on ecological risk control for aquatic organisms. Developing more targeted and refined ecological risk control strategies for river phenols is crucial to maintain a healthier and more vibrant river ecosystem.

[Probabilistic risk assessment of dietary exposure to lead among Chongqing residents].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate lead contamination in commercial foods in Chongqing City, and to assess the health risk of dietary lead exposure of residents in Chongqing City. METHODS: Lead concentration data was obtained from the food safety risk monitoring system, which included a total of 2347 lead-containing food samples in 11 categories in Chongqing from 2016 to 2020. Consumption data was derived from the China Health and Nutrition Survey Project in Chongqing in 2018(3 day, 24 h dietary recall survey). The dietary exposure to lead of residents in Chongqing was calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation method and the margin of exposure(MOE) method was used to evaluate the health risk of the population. RESULTS: The average content of lead in 2347 food samples from 11 categories ranged from 0.0328 to 0.0363 mg/kg, with an overall detection rate of 58.5%. For people aged between 3-6, 7-17, 18-59, and ≥ 60 years, the mean dietary lead intakes in Chongqing were 0.935-1.070, 0.600-0.684, 0.367-0.416, 0.369-0.419 µg/(kg·BW·d), respectively; and the high levels of dietary lead exposure(P95) were 1.642-1.852, 1.147-1.299, 0.651-0.729, 0.659-0.740 µg/(kg·BW·d), respectively. MOE values for lead were less than 1 for age groups 3-6 and 7-17 years. Mean MOE values for lead were greater than 1 for ages 18 to 59 and ≥ 60. Cereals and their products, vegetables and their products, and meat and meat products were the main sources of dietary lead exposure, accounting for more than 85% of the total dietary lead exposure. CONCLUSION: There are potential health risks of lead for residents in Chongqing.

Integration of Toxicogenomics and Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Human Health Risk Assessment of Perfluorooctane Sulfonate.

Toxicogenomics and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are useful approaches in chemical risk assessment, but the methodology to incorporate toxicogenomic data into a PBPK model to inform risk assessment remains to be developed. This study aimed to develop a probabilistic human health risk assessment approach by integrating toxicogenomic dose-response data and PBPK modeling using perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) as a case study. Based on the available human in vitro and mouse in vivo toxicogenomic data, we identified the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) at each exposure paradigm/duration. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes and disease ontology enrichment analyses were conducted on the DEGs to identify significantly enriched pathways and diseases. The dose-response data of DEGs were analyzed using the Bayesian benchmark dose (BMD) method. Using a previously published PBPK model, the gene BMDs were converted to human equivalent doses (HEDs), which were summarized to pathway and disease HEDs and then extrapolated to reference doses (RfDs) by considering an uncertainty factor of 30 for mouse in vivo data and 10 for human in vitro data. The results suggested that the median RfDs at different exposure paradigms were similar to the 2016 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended RfD, while the RfDs for the most sensitive pathways and diseases were closer to the recent European Food Safety Authority's guidance values. In conclusion, genomic dose-response data and PBPK modeling can be integrated to become a useful alternative approach in risk assessment of environmental chemicals. This approach considers multiple endpoints, provides toxicity mechanistic insights, and does not rely on apical toxicity endpoints.

A tiered probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic ecological and resistance development risks in the fresh surface waters of China.

Exposure to antibiotics can result in not only ecotoxicity on aquatic organisms but also the development of antibiotic resistance. In the study, the ecotoxicity data and minimum inhibitory concentrations of the antibiotics were screened to derive predicted no-effect concentrations of ecological (PNECeco) and resistance development risks (PNECres) for 36 antibiotics in fresh surface waters of China. The derived PNECeco and PNECres values were ranged from 0.00175 to 2351 µg/L and 0.037-50 µg/L, respectively. Antibiotic ecological and resistance development risks were geographically widespread, especially in the Yongding River, Daqing River, and Ziya River basins of China. Based on the risk quotients, 11 and 14 of 36 target antibiotics were at high ecological risks and high resistance development risks in at least one basin, respectively. The higher tiered assessments provided more detailed risk descriptions by probability values and ß-lactams (penicillin and amoxicillin) were present at the highest levels for ecological and resistance development risks. Although there was uncertainty based on the limited data and existing methods, this study can indicate the overall situation of the existing risk levels and provide essential insights and data supporting antibiotic management.

A consensus approach for estimating health risk: Application to inhalation cancer risks.

Conducting a risk assessment is challenging because various and contrasting risk indicators are available, which can lead to discrepancies and, sometimes, conflicting conclusions. Constructing and using a consensus risk indicator (CRI) could provide a reliable alternative that is consistent and supports direct comparisons. The goal of this study is to propose a structured and pragmatic approach for constructing a CRI distribution and demonstrate its feasibility and easy implementation when conducting risk assessments. A CRI distribution is constructed as a weighted combination of existing indicators where the weights are obtained by using the overlapping areas of an individual indicator's distribution and an aggregated reference distribution. The approach is illustrated through an assessment of human cancer risk following inhalation exposure. The CRI is constructed using eight risk indicators. The CRI distribution parameters for 199 human carcinogenic chemicals associated with inhalation exposure were determined and are presented in an interactive table. To aid the wider implementation of the CRI approach, a user-friendly and interactive web application, named InCaRisk, was created to facilitate the cancer risk estimation following inhalation exposure. Our approach could be useful for enhancing the quality of regulatory decisions and protecting human health from environmental pollutants; our approach can be applied for a given health outcome, route of exposure and exposure setting.

Plutonium Disposition: Using and Explaining Complex Risk-Related Methods.

Applying risk assessment and management tools to plutonium disposition is a long-standing challenge for the U.S. government. The science is complicated, which has helped push risk assessment and management tools in new creative directions. Yet, communicating effectively about increasingly complicated risk-science issues like plutonium disposition requires careful planning and speakers who can address why specific tools are selected, the past record of applying these tools, why assumptions sometimes are applied instead of reliable data, and how uncertainty is characterized. Speakers addressing risk issues must also overcome obstacles in communication arising from expert-audience differences in knowledge and legal restrictions on disclosing information. This perspective seeks to highlight and illustrate five key risk questions, about probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and performance assessment (PA) in the context of managing plutonium defense nuclear waste: objectives, experience, gaps, transparency, and difficulty of applying and communicating using each tool. While the general public needs to be involved, some issues require a level of expertise that is typically beyond local communities and therefore an expert panel should support community access.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Prophylactic Surgery Before Extended-Duration Spaceflight.

Introduction. Prophylactic surgery before spaceflight may eliminate the risk of appendicitis and cholecystitis in astronauts on deep space missions. However, even minimally invasive surgery increases the risk of small bowel obstruction (SBO). Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method that can be used to estimate the benefits and risks of prophylactic surgery. Methods. Risks of appendicitis and cholecystitis during a 2.5-year Mars mission are compared to the risk of SBO after laparoscopic removal of the appendix, gallbladder, or both. A PRA model using Monte Carlo methodology was used to forecast the risks. Results. Prophylactic appendectomy and cholecystectomy combined, conferred an increased probability of medical evacuation (pEVAC) due to SBO as compared to the no surgery group. A slightly higher probability for the loss of crew life (pLOCL) was found in the no surgery group when compared to the cases in which either prophylactic appendectomy alone, or appendectomy plus cholecystectomy are performed. Discussion. The need for medical evacuation can be viewed as a potential risk for death in the context of a space mission where evacuation is not possible. Because of the higher pEVAC due to SBO and relatively small benefit in the reduction of pLOCL in the prophylactic surgery groups, this analysis does not support the prophylactic removal of appendix and/or gallbladder for spaceflight. Future advances in surgical or medical technique or mission medical capabilities may change these results. This work demonstrates the utility of PRA in providing quantitative answers to "what if" questions where limited information is available.

Probabilistic risk assessment of water distribution system in Hyderabad, Pakistan reveals unacceptable health hazards and areas for rehabilitation.

Poor water quality exacerbates multidimensional poverty in developing nations. Often centralized treatment facilities generate acceptable water quality, but the water is contaminated during distribution. Methods to assess sources of contamination in water distribution systems are lacking. A case study of two methods, human risk assessment linked to water distribution system sampling was conducted in Hyderabad, Pakistan to determine areas requiring infrastructure rehabilitation. Water samples from source water (i.e., the Indus River), treatment plant effluent and from taps in the water distribution system were analyzed by atomic adsorption spectroscopy for metals and metalloids (As, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Pb) and water quality parameters (dissolved and suspended solids, pH, conductivity, and total organic carbon). Source water exceeded acceptable drinking water levels for As, Cd, total Cr, and Pb, while the treatment plant effluent concentrations were acceptable. Concentrations of all metals and metalloids, except Hg, increased in the water distribution system post-treatment, exceeding safe drinking limits in at least one location, suggesting contamination of the water during distribution. A deterministic and a probabilistic risk assessment were conducted to evaluate two scenarios: (1) unrestricted use of piped water for all household purposes, including as drinking water and (2) restricted use of the water for purposes other than drinking in the household, including only dermal and inhalation exposure pathways. The water was deemed unsafe for unrestricted use as the sole source of drinking water by both risk assessment methods. Yet when an alternative source of drinking water was assumed and the piped water was used only for bathing and dish washing, the probabilistic risk assessment revealed acceptable health risks to the population, while the overly conservative deterministic risk assessment suggested unacceptable risks. The combined methods of water sampling, risk assessment and correlation analysis suggested areas for rehabilitation of the water distribution system in Hyderabad, Pakistan and these methods can be adopted in other developing nations to target limited funds for infrastructure rehabilitation.

A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review.

This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the challenges related to each perspective; and (4) highlighting the directions of research required to reach a final resolution for each question. The four key questions are: (I) How significant is the contribution of organizational factors to accidents and incidents? (II) How critical, with respect to improving risk assessment, is the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (III) What theoretical bases are needed for explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (IV) What methodological bases are needed for the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? Questions I and II mainly analyze PRA literature from the nuclear domain. For Questions III and IV, a broader review and categorization is conducted of those existing cross-disciplinary studies that have evaluated the effects of organizational factors on safety (not solely PRA-based) to shed more light on future research needs.

Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic health risk assessment of metals in groundwater via ingestion pathway in the mining areas of Singhbhum copper belt, India.

Probabilistic health risk assessment was conducted for metal exposure through groundwater in mining areas of Singhbhum Copper Belt, India. The concentrations of metals showed notable spatial variation exceeding drinking water standards at some of the locations. Hazard Quotient revealed that chronic risks to the local population were largely contributed by Mn, Co and As. The 95th percentiles of Hazard Index (HI) calculated using Monte Carlo simulations showed that the HI for male, female and child populations was 2.87, 2.54 and 4.57 for pre-monsoon, 2.16, 1.88 and 3.49 for monsoon and 2.28, 2.02 and 3.75 for post-monsoon seasons, respectively. The Hazard Indices indicated that amongst the populations, risk was greater for child population and considering the seasons the risk was higher during the pre-monsoon season. The sensitivity analysis suggested that concentration of metals in groundwater and exposure duration were 2 most influential input variables that contributed to the total risk.

Spatiotemporal variations and characterization of the chronic cancer risk associated with benzene exposure.

A spatiotemporal analysis of benzene was performed in east of the USA and in a representative station in Baltimore County, in order to assess its trend over a 25-year time span between 1993 and 2018. A novel time series analysis technique known as TBATS (an ensemble of Trigonometric seasonal models, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA error plus Trend and Seasonal components) was applied for the first time on an air contaminant. The results demonstrated an annual seasonality and a continuously declining trend in this respect. The success of Reformulated Gasoline Program (RFG), initiated in 1995, was obviously detected in time series data since the daily benzene concentrations reduced to one-sixth of its original level in 1995. In this regard, the respective values of mean absolute scaled error (MASE) were 0.35 and 0.45 for training and test series. Given the observed concentrations of benzene, the hot spot areas in east of the US were identified by spatial analysis, as well. A chronic cancer risk was followed along the study area, by both a deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques. It was indicated that children are at higher risk than that of adults. The range of estimated risk values for PRA was higher and varied between 6.45 × 10-6 and 1.68 × 10-4 for adults and between 8.13 × 10-6 and 8.29 × 10-4 for children. According to the findings of PRA, and referring to the threshold level of 1 × 10-4, only 1.2% of the adults and 28.77% of the children were categorized in an immediate risk group.