Risk-based management of international sporting events during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mass gatherings include a diverse range of events such as sporting competitions, religious ceremonies, entertainment activities, political rallies and cultural celebrations, which have important implications for population well-being. However, if not managed properly, these events can amplify health risks including those related to communicable diseases, and place undue strain on health systems in host countries and potentially in attendees' home countries, upon their return. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the risk factors associated with mass gatherings and the effectiveness of applying mitigation measures during infectious disease emergencies. The pandemic has also allowed event organizers and health officials to identify best practices for mass gathering planning in host countries. To guide decisions about whether to hold, postpone, modify or cancel a mass gathering during the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization and its partners developed normative guidance and derivative tools promoting a risk-based approach to mass gathering planning. This approach involves three steps to guide decision-making around mass gatherings: risk evaluation, risk mitigation and risk communication. The approach was applied in the planning and execution of several mass gathering events, including the Tokyo 2020 and Beijing 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Lessons identified from these large-scale international events offer insights into the planning and implementation of mass gathering events during a pandemic, and the broader impacts of such events on society. These lessons may also further inform and refine planning for future mass gatherings.

Les rassemblements de masse désignent un large éventail d'événements tels que des compétitions sportives, cérémonies religieuses, activités de divertissement, manifestations politiques et fêtes culturelles. Tous ont un impact considérable sur le bien-être de la population. Toutefois, s'ils ne sont pas gérés correctement, ils peuvent augmenter les risques sanitaires, notamment concernant les maladies transmissibles, et exercer une pression excessive sur les systèmes de santé des pays hôtes, voire sur ceux des pays d'origine des participants après leur retour. La pandémie de maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) a offert une occasion unique d'évaluer les facteurs de risque associés aux rassemblements de masse, ainsi que l'efficacité des mesures visant à limiter la propagation dans des situations d'urgence liées à des maladies infectieuses. Cette pandémie a également permis aux organisateurs d'événements et responsables de santé d'identifier les bonnes pratiques à appliquer dans les pays hôtes pendant les rassemblements de masse. Afin de guider les décisions relatives au maintien, au report, à la modification ou à l'annulation d'un rassemblement de masse durant la pandémie de COVID-19, l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé et ses partenaires ont mis au point des orientations normatives et des outils dérivés favorisant une approche tenant compte des risques au moment de la planification. Cette approche comprend trois étapes contribuant à la prise de décision: l'évaluation, la réduction et la communication des risques. Elle a été déployée lors de la planification et de l'exécution de nombreux rassemblements de masse, comme les Jeux olympiques et paralympiques de Tokyo 2020 et Beijing 2022. Les leçons tirées de ces événements internationaux à grande échelle fournissent des informations sur leur organisation et leur mise en œuvre en cas de pandémie, ainsi que les impacts de tels événements sur la société. Elles sont en outre susceptibles de faciliter et d'améliorer la planification des futurs rassemblements de masse.

Las concentraciones masivas incluyen una gran variedad de eventos, como competiciones deportivas, ceremonias religiosas, actividades de entretenimiento, mítines políticos y celebraciones culturales, que tienen importantes implicaciones para el bienestar de la población. Sin embargo, si no se gestionan adecuadamente, estos eventos pueden amplificar los riesgos para la salud, incluidos los relacionados con las enfermedades transmisibles, y suponer una carga excesiva para los sistemas sanitarios de los países anfitriones y, potencialmente, de los países de origen de los participantes a su regreso. La pandemia de la enfermedad por coronavirus de 2019 (COVID-19) ha brindado una oportunidad única para evaluar los factores de riesgo asociados a las concentraciones masivas y la eficacia de aplicar medidas de mitigación durante las emergencias por enfermedades infecciosas. La pandemia también ha permitido a los organizadores de eventos y a las autoridades sanitarias identificar las mejores prácticas para la planificación de concentraciones masivas en los países anfitriones. Para orientar las decisiones sobre la celebración, el aplazamiento, la modificación o la cancelación de una concentración masiva durante la pandemia de la COVID-19, la Organización Mundial de la Salud y sus asociados elaboraron orientaciones normativas y herramientas derivadas que promueven un enfoque de la planificación de concentraciones masivas basado en los riesgos. Este enfoque consta de tres pasos para orientar la toma de decisiones en torno a las concentraciones masivas: la evaluación, la mitigación y la comunicación de riesgos. El enfoque se aplicó en la planificación y ejecución de varias concentraciones masivas, incluidos los Juegos Olímpicos y Paralímpicos de Tokio 2020 y Pekín 2022. Las conclusiones extraídas de estos eventos internacionales a gran escala permiten comprender mejor la planificación y ejecución de concentraciones masivas durante una pandemia, así como las repercusiones más generales de estos eventos en la sociedad. Estas lecciones también pueden informar y perfeccionar la planificación de futuras concentraciones masivas.

Application of a Human Factors Systems Approach to Healthcare Control Centres for Managing Patient Flow: A Scoping Review.

Over the past decade, healthcare systems have started to establish control centres to manage patient flow, with a view to removing delays and increasing the quality of care. Such centres-here dubbed Healthcare Capacity Command/Coordination Centres (HCCCs)-are a challenge to design and operate. Broad-ranging surveys of HCCCs have been lacking, and design for their human users is only starting to be addressed. In this review we identified 73 papers describing different kinds of HCCCs, classifying them according to whether they describe virtual or physical control centres, the kinds of situations they handle, and the different levels of Rasmussen's [1] risk management framework that they integrate. Most of the papers (71%) describe physical HCCCs established as control centres, whereas 29% of the papers describe virtual HCCCs staffed by stakeholders in separate locations. Principal functions of the HCCCs described are categorised as business as usual (BAU) (48%), surge management (15%), emergency response (18%), and mass casualty management (19%). The organisation layers that the HCCCs incorporate are classified according to the risk management framework; HCCCs managing BAU involve lower levels of the framework, whereas HCCCs handling the more emergent functions involve all levels. Major challenges confronting HCCCs include the dissemination of information about healthcare system status, and the management of perspectives and goals from different parts of the healthcare system. HCCCs that take the form of physical control centres are just starting to be analysed using human factors principles that will make staff more effective and productive at managing patient flow.

Addressing Occupational Fatigue in Nurses: A User-Centered Design Approach for Fatigue Risk Management.

OBJECTIVE: To understand hospital nurses' current fatigue risk management (FRM), identify design goals and principles, and obtain feedback on FRM design concepts. BACKGROUND: FRM systems can address fatigue and associated risks, yet they are not widely implemented in hospital nursing. This may be due to a lack of contextually appropriate FRM tools. METHODS: A user-centered design approach was used, including interviews with 21 hospital nursing stakeholders. FINDINGS: Nurses described integrated fatigue monitoring and management activities to pursue balance between work demands and capacity to meet those demands as individual nurses, within the unit, across the hospital, and over time. Seven principles were identified and applied to 2 initial design concepts for tools to support FRM. Participants' feedback on designs was positive. CONCLUSIONS: This study advances the science and practice for FRM in nursing. The design principles and concepts from this study can be used to facilitate implementation of FRM systems in hospitals.

Learning from incidents in medically assisted reproduction: the Notify Library as a learning tool.

Biovigilance is the systematic monitoring of serious adverse reactions and events (SARE) that ensures the quality and safety of tissues and cells for human application in medically assisted reproduction (MAR). The Notify Library is an open access database launched by the World Health Organization and supported by the Italian National Transplant Centre (CNT) that has collected information on documented adverse occurrences in transplantation, transfusion and MAR. It is not a SARE register, but rather a collection of SARE types identified primarily by review of published articles and case reports from national or regional vigilance programmes. The Notify Library includes many well-documented records of adverse occurrences in MAR treatment, representing a useful tool for MAR operators in the evaluation of the risks associated with the clinical application of reproductive tissues and cells. It is updated with new records when a new type of incident is reported for the first time. All incident types described might have teaching value during the risk management carried out by a MAR centre. Sharing lessons learned from these incidents represents an important didactic opportunity that can help MAR centres to improve their processes and to achieve higher standards of quality and safety.

Medication incident recovery and prevention utilising an Australian community pharmacy incident reporting system: the QUMwatch study.

PURPOSE: To identify factors in community pharmacy that facilitate error recovery from medication incidents (MIs) and explore medication safety prevention strategies from the pharmacist perspective. METHODS: Thirty community pharmacies in Sydney, Australia, participated in a 30-month prospective incident reporting program of MIs classified in the Advanced Incident Management System (AIMS) and the analysis triangulated with case studies. The main outcome measures were the relative frequencies and patterns in MI detection, minimisation, restorative actions and prevention recommendations of community pharmacists. RESULTS: Participants reported 1013 incidents with 831 recovered near misses and 165 purported patient harm. MIs were mainly initiated at the prescribing (68.2%) and dispensing (22.6%) stages, and most were resolved at the pharmacy (76.9%). Detection was efficient within the first 24 h in 54.6% of MIs, but 26.1% required one month or longer; 37.2% occurred after the patient consumed the medicine. The combination of specific actions/attributes (85.5%), appropriate interventions (81.6%) and effective communication (77.7%) minimised MIs. An array of remedial actions were conducted by participants including notification, referral, advice, modification of medication regimen, risk management and documentation corrections. Recommended prevention strategies involved espousal of medication safety culture (97.8%), better application of policies/procedures (84.6%) and improvements in healthcare providers' education (79.9%). CONCLUSION: Incident reporting provided insights on the human and organisational factors involved in the recovery of MIs in community pharmacy. Optimising existing safeguards and redesigning certain structures and processes may enhance the resilience of the medication use system in primary care.

Asymptomatic carriage rates and case fatality of SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents and staff in Irish nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has disproportionately affected nursing homes (NH). In Ireland, the first NH case COVID-19 occurred on 16 March 2020. A national point-prevalence testing programme of all NH residents and staff took place (18 April 2020 to 5 May 2020). AIMS: to examine characteristics of NHs across three Irish Community Health Organisations, proportions with COVID-19 outbreaks, staff and resident infection rates symptom profile and resident case fatality. METHODS: in total, 45 NHs surveyed, requesting details on occupancy, size, COVID-19 outbreak, outbreak timing, total symptomatic/asymptomatic cases and outcomes for residents from 29 February 2020 to 22 May 2020. RESULTS: surveys were returned from 62.2% (28/45) of NHs (2,043 residents, 2,303 beds). Three-quarters (21/28) had COVID-19 outbreaks (1,741 residents, 1,972 beds). Median time from first COVID-19 case in Ireland to first case in these NHs was 27.0 days. Resident incidence was 43.9% (764/1,741)-40.8% (710/1,741) laboratory confirmed, with 27.2% (193/710) asymptomatic and 3.1% (54/1,741) clinically suspected. Resident case fatality was 27.6% (211/764) for combined laboratory-confirmed/clinically suspected COVID-19. Similar proportions of residents in NHs with 'early-stage' (<28 days) versus 'later-stage' outbreaks developed COVID-19. Lower proportions of residents in 'early' outbreak NHs had recovered compared with those with 'late' outbreaks (37.4 versus 61.7%; χ2 = 56.9, P < 0.001). Of 395 NH staff across 12 sites with confirmed COVID-19, 24.7% (99/398) were asymptomatic. There was a significant correlation between the proportion of staff with symptomatic COVID-19 and resident numbers with confirmed/suspected COVID-19 (Spearman's rho = 0.81, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: this study demonstrates the significant impact of COVID-19 on the NH sector. Systematic point-prevalence testing is necessary to reduce risk of transmission from asymptomatic carriers and manage outbreaks in this setting.

ESSD Commentary on Dysphagia Management During COVID Pandemia.

Since the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Global Public Health Emergency, experts in swallowing are seeking guidance on service delivery and clinical procedures. The European Society for Swallowing Disorders provides considerations to support experts in swallowing disorders in clinical practice. During the COVID-19 pandemic, assessment and treatment of patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia should be provided, while at the same time balancing risk of oropharyngeal complications with that of infection of patients and healthcare professionals involved in their management. Elective, non-urgent assessment may be temporarily postponed and patients are triaged to decide whether dysphagia assessment is necessary; instrumental assessment of swallowing is performed only if processing of the instruments can be guaranteed and clinical assessment has not provided enough diagnostic information for treatment prescription. Assessment and management of oropharyngeal dysphagia is a high-risk situation as it must be considered an aerosol-generating procedure. Personal protective equipment (PPE) should be used. Telepractice is encouraged and compensatory treatments are recommended.

Mitigation of in-hospital risk of coronavirus disease 2019: Experience from a haematology-oncology and stem cell transplant setting.

Background: . Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first described in December 2019 and has evolved into an ongoing global pandemic. Cancer patients on chemotherapy are immunocompromised and are at the highest risk of Covid-19-related complications. We describe our experience with the management of haematology-oncology and stem cell transplant (SCT) patients receiving curative chemotherapy in a hospital with a high influx of Covid-19 patients. Methods: . We did a prospective observational study at a 99-bedded cancer centre of a tertiary care teaching hospital from April 2020 to September 2020. Preventive measures taken were categorized as follows: (i) staff: screening, mandatory use of personal protective equipment (PPE), risk stratification of potential exposure and testing and isolation as needed; (ii) patients: mandatory viral polymerase chain reaction testing, segregation of positive and untested patients and testing of family members; and (iii) environment: mandatory regular cleaning, visitor restriction, telemedicine services and reassignment of priority to clinic visits. Treatment of the underlying conditions was continued with added precautions. Results: . A total of 54 patients were included in the analysis, including 48 with haematological malignancies and 6 for stem cell therapy. Preventive measures were universally applied, and chemotherapy with a curative intent was initiated as per protocol. Three patients were detected to have Covid-19 infection before admission and one after the institution of chemotherapy. Nine patients died after the first cycle of chemotherapy, 2 due to severe Covid-19-related illness and 7 due to complications of chemotherapy or disease progression. Conclusions: . In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, treatment for haematological malignancies must continue while balancing the risk of Covid-19 infections. Our report emphasizes the effectiveness of measures such as hand hygiene, social isolation, patient segregation, use of masks and PPE and universal pre-treatment testing for Covid-19 in reducing the risk of infection in a high-risk clinical setting.

The Impact of the COVID-19 2020 Pandemic on Hospital Length of Stay Following Fragility Hip Fracture Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures in elderly patients are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Variability in length of hospital stay (LOS) was evident in this population. The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to prompt discharge of effected patients in order to reduce contagion risk. LOS and discharge destination in COVID-19 negative patients has not been studied. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the LOS and discharge destination during the COVID-19 outbreak and compare it with a similar cohort in preceding years. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted comparing a total of 182 consecutive fragility hip fracture patients operated on during the first COVID-19 outbreak to patients operated on in 2 preceding years. Data regarding demographic, co-morbidities, surgical management, hospitalization, as well as surgical and medical complications were retrieved from electronic charts. RESULTS: During the pandemic 67 fragility hip fracture patients were admitted (COVID group); 55 and 60 patients were admitted during the same time periods in 2017 and 2018, respectively (control groups). All groups were of similar age and gender. Patients in the COVID group had significantly shorter LOS (7.2 ± 3.3 vs. 8.9 ± 4.9 days, P = 0.008) and waiting time for a rehabilitation facility (7.2 ± 3.1 vs. 9.3 ± 4.9 days, P = 0.003), but greater prevalence of delirium (17.9% vs. 7% of patients, P = 0.028). In hospital mortality did not differ among groups. CONCLUSIONS: LOS and time to rehabilitation were significantly shorter in the COVID group. Delirium was more common in this group, possibly due to negative effects of social distancing.

Development and Implementation of a Suicide Prevention Checklist to Create a Safe Environment.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of patients are admitted to general hospitals for injuries sustained in suicide attempts and for assessment of their ongoing risk for suicide. However, clinical staff may lack knowledge and expertise in the provision of a safe environment for potentially suicidal patients. OBJECTIVE: In an effort to follow the Joint Commission's recommendations on the care of suicidal patients, a Suicide Prevention Interdisciplinary Task Force was created. The task force sought to design and implement a suicide checklist that would facilitate creation of a safe environment for potentially suicidal inpatients on nonpsychiatric units in a general hospital. METHODS: We describe the development and implementation of a Care of the Suicide and Self-Injury Patient Checklist and report on data derived from incident reports related to self-harm/suicide attempts over a 4-year period. We also report results of a Research Electronic Data Capture survey of nurses' feedback on the checklist. RESULTS: After implementation of the Care of the Suicide and Self-Injury Patient Checklist, a total of 47 incidents of patient self-injury were reported over 4 years on nonpsychiatric inpatient units at a large general hospital; only three sustained permanent or serious harm. The Research Electronic Data Capture survey revealed that 88% of responding nurses believed that the Care of the Suicide and Self-Injury Patient Checklist guided creation of a safe environment and 90% believed that it supported consistent practice. CONCLUSIONS: The Care of the Suicide and Self-Injury Patient Checklist contributed to the creation of a safe environment while caring for potentially suicidal patients on nonpsychiatric inpatient units and guided clinicians on the management of potentially self-injurious individuals.

Risk-based surveillance for meat-borne parasites.

There is a plethora of meat-borne hazards - including parasites - for which there may be a need for surveillance. However, veterinary services worldwide need to decide how to use their scarce resources and prioritise among the perceived hazards. Moreover, to remain competitive, food business operators - irrespective of whether they are farmers or abattoir operators - are preoccupied with maintaining a profit and minimizing costs. Still, customers and trade partners expect that meat products placed on the market are safe to consume and should not bear any risks of causing disease. Risk-based surveillance systems may offer a solution to this challenge by applying risk analysis principles; first to set priorities, and secondly to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. The latter is done through a focus on the cost-effectiveness ratio in sampling and prioritisation. Risk-based surveillance was originally introduced into veterinary public health in 2006. Since then, experience has been gathered, and the methodology has been further developed. Guidelines and tools have been developed, which can be used to set up appropriate surveillance programmes. In this paper, the basic principles are described, and by use of a surveillance design tool called SURVTOOLS (https://survtools.org/), examples are given covering three meat-borne parasites for which risk-based surveillance is 1) either in place in the European Union (EU) (Trichinella spp.), 2) to be officially implemented in December 2019 (Taenia saginata) or 3) only carried out by one abattoir company in the EU as there is no official EU requirement (Toxoplasma gondii). Moreover, advantages, requirements and limitations of risk-based surveillance for meat-borne parasites are discussed.

Urological implications of SARS CoV-19.

INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pandemic has afflicted > 3.3 million people around the world since December 2019. Though, more than 1000 publications have appeared in scientific journals addressing a plethora of questions, there is a considerable hiatus in understanding of the behavior and natural history of the virus and its impact on urology. Also, a modified approach is the need of hour in taking care of patients as urologists should safeguard their teams, families, and patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The authors have used guidelines from USA, Canada, UK, Europe and India for making recommendations to help urologist define their own policies that may have to be fine-tuned on the basis of continued and evolving challenges they would encounter and the local resources at their disposal. RESULTS: COVID-19 do effect genitourinary system from kidney to testis. The authors provide scientific basis to urologists to help identify patients by remote consultation who are likely to be harmed by coming to the hospital, and not to miss those who need hospitalization for diagnostic or therapeutic interventions. There is uncompromised need of specific precautions during surgery to safe guard the surgeon and his team along with the patient. CONCLUSIONS: Urological operations during COVID-19 pandemic should be limited to emergency cases during the acute phase with an exit strategy planned in a staggered manner, based on the scientific risk stratification. Telemedicine (e-clinics or virtual clinics) would help achieve the goal of risk stratification.

How does the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist fit with existing perioperative risk management strategies? An ethnographic study across surgical specialties.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist (SSC) has demonstrated beneficial impacts on a range of patient- and team outcomes, though variation in SSC implementation and staff's perception of it remain challenging. Precisely how frontline personnel integrate the SSC with pre-existing perioperative clinical risk management remains underexplored - yet likely an impactful factor on how SSC is being used and its potential to improve clinical safety. This study aimed to explore how members of the multidisciplinary perioperative team integrate the SSC within their risk management strategies. METHODS: An ethnographic case study including observations (40 h) in operating theatres and in-depth interviews of 17 perioperative team members was carried out at two hospitals in 2016. Data were analysed using content analysis. RESULTS: We identified three themes reflecting the integration of the SSC in daily surgical practice: 1) Perceived usefullness; implying an intuitive advantage assessment of the SSC's practical utility in relation to relevant work; 2) Modification of implementation; reflecting performance variability of SSC on confirmation of items due to precence of team members; barriers of performance; and definition of SSC as performance indicator, and 3) Communication outside of the checklist; including formal- and informal micro-team formations where detailed, specific risk communication unfolded. CONCLUSION: When the SSC is not integrated within existing risk management strategies, but perceived as an "add on", its fidelity is compromised, hence limiting its potential clinical effectiveness. Implementation strategies for the SSC should thus integrate it as a risk-management tool and include it as part of risk-management education and training. This can improve team learning around risk comunication, foster mutual understanding of safety perspectives and enhance SSC implementation.

Today's Leadership Lesson: Mind the Wildlife and Prepare for Tomorrow's Disruption.

As the world reacts with unprecedented efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of organizational leaders is to embark on a parallel track to keep mission-critical initiatives moving forward. One track includes preparing their organizations for the next "novel" virus. After all, organizations do not hire leaders to maintain the status quo; they are hired to drive the future. As much as death and taxes are inevitable, it is equally predictable that all organizations will sooner or later confront a black swan event. History teaches us that while the order of magnitude may vary, management crises are not entirely novel. This article explores a series of early risk mitigation strategies to prevent the next COVID-19 and prepare leadership to face this inevitable challenge.

Violence against trainees: urgent ethical challenges for medical educators and academic leaders in perinatal medicine.

Objectives Violence against medical trainees confronts medical educators and academic leaders in perinatal medicine with urgent ethical challenges. Despite their evident importance, these ethical challenges have not received sufficient attention. The purpose of this paper is to provide an ethical framework to respond to these ethical challenges. Methods We used an existing critical appraisal tool to conduct a scholarly review, to identify publications on the ethical challenges of violence against trainees. We conducted web searches to identify reports of violence against trainees in Mexico. Drawing on professional ethics in perinatal medicine, we describe an ethical framework that is unique in the literature on violence against trainees in its appeal to the professional virtue of self-sacrifice and its justified limits. Results Our search identified no previous publications that address the ethical challenges of violence against trainees. We identified reports of violence and their limitations. The ethical framework is based on the professional virtue of self-sacrifice in professional ethics in perinatal medicine. This virtue creates the ethical obligation of trainees to accept reasonable risks of life and health but not unreasonable risks. Society has the ethical obligation to protect trainees from these unreasonable risks. Medical educators should protect personal safety. Academic leaders should develop and implement policies to provide such protection. Institutions of government should provide effective law enforcement and fair trials of those accused of violence against trainees. International societies should promulgate ethics statements that can be applied to violence against trainees. By protecting trainees, medical educators and academic leaders in perinatology will also protect pregnant, fetal, and neonatal patients. Conclusions This paper is the first to provide an ethical framework, based on the professional virtue of self-sacrifice and its justified limits, to guide medical educators and academic leaders in perinatal medicine who confront ethical challenges of violence against their trainees.

A Study of Risk Relevance Reasoning Based on a Context Ontology of Railway Accidents.

With the application of risk management and accident response in the railway domain, risk detection and prevention have become key research topics. Many dangers and associated risk sources must be considered in collaborative scenarios of heavy-haul railways. In these scenarios, (1) various risk sources are involved in different data sources, and context affects their occurrence, (2) the relationships between contexts and risk sources in the accident cause mechanism need to be explicitly defined, and (3) risk knowledge reasoning needs to integrate knowledge from multiple data sources to achieve comprehensive results. To express the association rules among core concepts, this article constructs two ontologies: The accident-risk ontology and the context ontology. Concept analysis is based on railway domain knowledge and accident analysis reports. To sustainably integrate knowledge, an integrated evolutionary model called scenario-risk-accident chain ontology (SRAC) is constructed by introducing new data sources. The SRAC is integrated through expert rules between the two ontologies, and its evolution process involves new knowledge through a new risk source database. After three versions of the upgrade process, potential risk sources can be mined and evaluated in specific contexts. To evaluate the risk source level, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is used to capture context and risk text features. A model comparison for different neural network structures is performed to find the optimal evaluation results. Finally, new concepts, such as risk source level, and new instances are updated in the context-aware risk knowledge reasoning framework.

Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding.

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents' perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.

An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems.

Integrating sustainability into freight transportation systems (FTSs) is a complex and challenging task due to the sheer number of inherent sustainability risks. Sustainability risks disrupt the economic, social and environmental objectives of freight operations and act as impediments in the development of sustainable freight transportation systems. The area of sustainability risk management is still unexplored and immature in the operational research domain. This study addresses these research gaps and contributes in a threefold manner. First, a total of 36 potential sustainability risks related to FTSs are identified and uniquely classified into seven categories using a rigourous approach. Second, the research proposes two prominent perspectives, namely, ontological and epistemological perspectives to understand risks and develops a novel framework for managing sustainability risks in FTSs. Third, a novel approach by integrating fuzzy evidential reasoning algorithm (FERA) with expected utility theory is developed to quantitatively model and profile sustainability risk for different risk preferences, namely, risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-taking scenarios. The proposed FERA is a flexible and robust approach, which transforms the experts' inputs into belief structures and aggregates them using the evidence combination rule proposed in Dempster-Shafer theory to overcome the problem of imprecise results caused by average scoring in existing models. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model. Unlike conventional perception, our study suggests that most of the high priority sustainability risks are behaviorally and socially induced rather than financially driven. The results provide significant managerial implications including a focus on skills development, and on social and behavioral dimensions while managing risks in FTSs.

Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change-Induced Disasters.

In honor of the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article suggests ways of linking risk assessment and risk perception in developing risk management strategies that have a good chance of being implemented, focusing on the problem of reducing losses from natural hazards in the face of climate change. Following a checklist for developing an implementable risk management strategy, Section 2 highlights the impact that exponential growth of CO2 emissions is likely to have on future disaster losses as assessed by climate and social scientists. Section 3 then discusses how people perceive the risks of low-probability adverse events and the cognitive biases that lead them to underprepare for future losses. Based on this empirical evidence, Section 4 proposes a risk management strategy for reducing future losses using the principles of choice architecture to communicate the likelihood and consequences of disasters, coupled with economic incentives and well-enforced regulations.

Altruistic and Private Values For Saving Lives With an Oyster Consumption Safety Program.

We use data from an Internet-based survey and estimate the benefits of an oyster consumption safety policy with the contingent valuation method. In addition to providing a context-specific estimate of willingness-to-pay for oyster safety, we consider an important issue in the contingent valuation mortality risk reduction literature. A number of studies find that willingness-to-pay for mortality risk reduction is not sensitive to the scope of the risk change. We present the scope test as a difference in the number of lives saved by the program, instead of small changes in risk, and find that referendum votes are responsive to scope. A third feature of this article is that we identify those at-risk respondents who would most benefit from the policy and decompose willingness-to-pay into use values and altruistic nonuse values. We find that willingness-to-pay per life saved ranges from $3.95 million to $7.69 million for the private good of lives saved when the respondent is at risk (i.e., use values). Willingness-to-pay per life saved including both use and altruistic nonuse values ranges from $6.89 million to $12.87 million.