Prolonged sleep deprivation induces a cytokine-storm-like syndrome in mammals.

Most animals require sleep, and sleep loss induces serious pathophysiological consequences, including death. Previous experimental approaches for investigating sleep impacts in mice have been unable to persistently deprive animals of both rapid eye movement sleep (REMS) and non-rapid eye movement sleep (NREMS). Here, we report a "curling prevention by water" paradigm wherein mice remain awake 96% of the time. After 4 days of exposure, mice exhibit severe inflammation, and approximately 80% die. Sleep deprivation increases levels of prostaglandin D2 (PGD2) in the brain, and we found that elevated PGD2 efflux across the blood-brain-barrier-mediated by ATP-binding cassette subfamily C4 transporter-induces both accumulation of circulating neutrophils and a cytokine-storm-like syndrome. Experimental disruption of the PGD2/DP1 axis dramatically reduced sleep-deprivation-induced inflammation. Thus, our study reveals that sleep-related changes in PGD2 in the central nervous system drive profound pathological consequences in the peripheral immune system.

Global population profile of tropical cyclone exposure from 2002 to 2019.

Tropical cyclones have far-reaching impacts on livelihoods and population health that often persist years after the event1-4. Characterizing the demographic and socioeconomic profile and the vulnerabilities of exposed populations is essential to assess health and other risks associated with future tropical cyclone events5. Estimates of exposure to tropical cyclones are often regional rather than global6 and do not consider population vulnerabilities7. Here we combine spatially resolved annual demographic estimates with tropical cyclone wind fields estimates to construct a global profile of the populations exposed to tropical cyclones between 2002 and 2019. We find that approximately 560 million people are exposed yearly and that the number of people exposed has increased across all cyclone intensities over the study period. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted away from children (less than 5 years old) and towards older people (more than 60 years old) in recent years compared with the early 2000s. Populations exposed to tropical cyclones are more socioeconomically deprived than those unexposed within the same country, and this relationship is more pronounced for people exposed to higher-intensity storms. By characterizing the patterns and vulnerabilities of exposed populations, our results can help identify mitigation strategies and assess the global burden and future risks of tropical cyclones.

Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate.

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3-5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.

Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing.

The tropical Atlantic climate is characterized by prominent and correlated multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sahel rainfall and hurricane activity1-4. Owing to uncertainties in both the models and the observations, the origin of the physical relationships among these systems has remained controversial3-7. Here we show that the cross-equatorial gradient in tropical Atlantic SSTs-largely driven by radiative perturbations associated with anthropogenic emissions and volcanic aerosols since 19503,7-is a key determinant of Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall. The relationship is obscured in a large ensemble of CMIP6 Earth system models, because the models overestimate long-term trends for warming in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere from around 1950 as well as associated changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall. When the overestimated trends are removed, correlations between SSTs and Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall emerge as a response to radiative forcing, especially since 1950 when anthropogenic aerosol forcing has been high. Our findings establish that the tropical Atlantic SST gradient is a stronger determinant of tropical impacts than SSTs across the entire North Atlantic, because the gradient is more physically connected to tropical impacts via local atmospheric circulations8. Our findings highlight that Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall variations can be predicted from radiative forcing driven by anthropogenic emissions and volcanism, but firmer predictions are limited by the signal-to-noise paradox9-11 and uncertainty in future climate forcings.

Trait-based sensitivity of large mammals to a catastrophic tropical cyclone.

Extreme weather events perturb ecosystems and increasingly threaten biodiversity1. Ecologists emphasize the need to forecast and mitigate the impacts of these events, which requires knowledge of how risk is distributed among species and environments. However, the scale and unpredictability of extreme events complicate risk assessment1-4-especially for large animals (megafauna), which are ecologically important and disproportionately threatened but are wide-ranging and difficult to monitor5. Traits such as body size, dispersal ability and habitat affiliation are hypothesized to determine the vulnerability of animals to natural hazards1,6,7. Yet it has rarely been possible to test these hypotheses or, more generally, to link the short-term and long-term ecological effects of weather-related disturbance8,9. Here we show how large herbivores and carnivores in Mozambique responded to Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai, the deadliest storm on record in Africa, across scales ranging from individual decisions in the hours after landfall to changes in community composition nearly 2 years later. Animals responded behaviourally to rising floodwaters by moving upslope and shifting their diets. Body size and habitat association independently predicted population-level impacts: five of the smallest and most lowland-affiliated herbivore species declined by an average of 28% in the 20 months after landfall, while four of the largest and most upland-affiliated species increased by an average of 26%. We attribute the sensitivity of small-bodied species to their limited mobility and physiological constraints, which restricted their ability to avoid the flood and endure subsequent reductions in the quantity and quality of food. Our results identify general traits that govern animal responses to severe weather, which may help to inform wildlife conservation in a volatile climate.

Anticyclonic eddies aggregate pelagic predators in a subtropical gyre.

Ocean eddies are coherent, rotating features that can modulate pelagic ecosystems across many trophic levels. These mesoscale features, which are ubiquitous at mid-latitudes1, may increase productivity of nutrient-poor regions2,3, accumulate prey4 and modulate habitat conditions in the water column5. However, in nutrient-poor subtropical gyres-the largest marine biome-the role of eddies in modulating behaviour throughout the pelagic predator community remains unknown despite predictions for these gyres to expand6 and pelagic predators to become increasingly important for food security7. Using a large-scale fishery dataset in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, we show a pervasive pattern of increased pelagic predator catch inside anticyclonic eddies relative to cyclones and non-eddy areas. Our results indicate that increased mesopelagic prey abundance in anticyclone cores4,8 may be attracting diverse predators, forming ecological hotspots where these predators aggregate and exhibit increased abundance. In this energetically quiescent gyre, we expect that isolated mesoscale features (and the habitat conditions in them) exhibit primacy over peripheral submesoscale dynamics in structuring the foraging opportunities of pelagic predators. Our finding that eddies influence coupling of epi- to mesopelagic communities corroborates the growing evidence that deep scattering layer organisms are vital prey for a suite of commercially important predator species9 and, thus, provide valuable ecosystem services.

Global hotspots of salt marsh change and carbon emissions.

Salt marshes provide ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration1, coastal protection2, sea-level-rise (SLR) adaptation3 and recreation4. SLR5, storm events6, drainage7 and mangrove encroachment8 are known drivers of salt marsh loss. However, the global magnitude and location of changes in salt marsh extent remains uncertain. Here we conduct a global and systematic change analysis of Landsat satellite imagery from the years 2000-2019 to quantify the loss, gain and recovery of salt marsh ecosystems and then estimate the impact of these changes on blue carbon stocks. We show a net salt marsh loss globally, equivalent to an area double the size of Singapore (719 km2), with a loss rate of 0.28% year-1 from 2000 to 2019. Net global losses resulted in 16.3 (0.4-33.2, 90% confidence interval) Tg CO2e year-1 emissions from 2000 to 2019 and a 0.045 (-0.14-0.115) Tg CO2e year-1 reduction of carbon burial. Russia and the USA accounted for 64% of salt marsh losses, driven by hurricanes and coastal erosion. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of salt marsh systems to climatic changes such as SLR and intensification of storms and cyclones.

A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards.

An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.

Pelagic seabirds reduce risk by flying into the eye of the storm.

Cyclones can cause mass mortality of seabirds, sometimes wrecking thousands of individuals. The few studies to track pelagic seabirds during cyclones show they tend to circumnavigate the strongest winds. We tracked adult shearwaters in the Sea of Japan over 11 y and found that the response to cyclones varied according to the wind speed and direction. In strong winds, birds that were sandwiched between the storm and mainland Japan flew away from land and toward the eye of the storm, flying within ≤30 km of the eye and tracking it for up to 8 h. This exposed shearwaters to some of the highest wind speeds near the eye wall (≤21 m s-1) but enabled them to avoid strong onshore winds in the storm's wake. Extreme winds may therefore become a threat when an inability to compensate for drift could lead to forced landings and collisions. Birds may need to know where land is in order to avoid it. This provides additional selective pressure for a map sense and could explain why juvenile shearwaters, which lack a map sense, instead navigating using a compass heading, are susceptible to being wrecked. We suggest that the ability to respond to storms is influenced by both flight and navigational capacities. This may become increasingly pertinent due to changes in extreme weather patterns.

Protracted Indian monsoon droughts of the past millennium and their societal impacts.

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

Natural disaster and immunological aging in a nonhuman primate.

Weather-related disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, leaving survivors to cope with ensuing mental, financial, and physical hardships. This adversity can exacerbate existing morbidities, trigger new ones, and increase the risk of mortality-features that are also characteristic of advanced age-inviting the hypothesis that extreme weather events may accelerate aging. To test this idea, we examined the impact of Hurricane Maria and its aftermath on immune cell gene expression in large, age-matched, cross-sectional samples from free-ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) living on an isolated island. A cross section of macaques was sampled 1 to 4 y before (n = 435) and 1 y after (n = 108) the hurricane. Hurricane Maria was significantly associated with differential expression of 4% of immune-cell-expressed genes, and these effects were correlated with age-associated alterations in gene expression. We further found that individuals exposed to the hurricane had a gene expression profile that was, on average, 1.96 y older than individuals that were not-roughly equivalent to an increase in 7 to 8 y of a human life. Living through an intense hurricane and its aftermath was associated with expression of key immune genes, dysregulated proteostasis networks, and greater expression of inflammatory immune cell-specific marker genes. Together, our findings illuminate potential mechanisms through which the adversity unleashed by extreme weather and potentially other natural disasters might become biologically embedded, accelerate age-related molecular immune phenotypes, and ultimately contribute to earlier onset of disease and death.

Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study.

BACKGROUND: More intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019. Daily TC exposures were defined when the maximum sustained windspeed associated with a TC was ≥34 knots using a parametric wind field model at a 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. We first estimated the TC-specific mortality risks and POC using an advanced flexible statistical framework of mixed Poisson model, accounting for the population changes, natural variation, seasonal and day of the week effects. Then, a mixed meta-regression model was used to pool the TC-specific mortality risks to estimate the overall and country-specific ER relationships of TC characteristics (windspeed, rainfall, and year) with mortality. Overall, 47.7 million all-cause, 15.5 million cardiovascular, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths and 382 TCs were included in our analyses. An overall average POC of around 20 days was observed for TC-related all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality, with relatively longer POC for the United States of America, Brazil, and Taiwan (>30 days). The TC-specific relative risks (RR) varied substantially, ranging from 1.04 to 1.42, 1.07 to 1.77, and 1.12 to 1.92 among the top 100 TCs with highest RRs for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. At country level, relatively higher TC-related mortality risks were observed in Guatemala, Brazil, and New Zealand for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. We found an overall monotonically increasing and approximately linear ER curve of TC-related maximum sustained windspeed and cumulative rainfall with mortality, with heterogeneous patterns across countries and regions. The TC-related mortality risks were generally decreasing from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, whereas potentially increasing trends in TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan. CONCLUSIONS: The TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. To minimize the TC-related health burdens, targeted strategies are particularly needed for different countries and regions, integrating epidemiological evidence on region-specific POC and ER curves that consider across-TC variability.

Microorganisms uniquely capture and predict stony coral tissue loss disease and hurricane disturbance impacts on US Virgin Island reefs.

Coral reef ecosystems are now commonly affected by major climate and disease disturbances. Disturbance impacts are typically recorded using reef benthic cover, but this may be less reflective of other ecosystem processes. To explore the potential for reef water-based disturbance indicators, we conducted a 7-year time series on US Virgin Island reefs where we examined benthic cover and reef water nutrients and microorganisms from 2016 to 2022, which included two major disturbances: hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and the stony coral tissue loss disease outbreak starting in 2020. The disease outbreak coincided with the largest changes in the benthic habitat, with increases in the percent cover of turf algae and Ramicrusta, an invasive alga. While sampling timepoint contributed most to changes in reef water nutrient composition and microbial community beta diversity, both disturbances led to increases in ammonium concentration, a mechanism likely contributing to observed microbial community shifts. We identified 10 microbial taxa that were sensitive and predictive of increasing ammonium concentration. This included the decline of the oligotrophic and photoautotrophic Prochlorococcus and the enrichment of heterotrophic taxa. As disturbances impact reefs, the changing nutrient and microbial regimes may foster a type of microbialization, a process that hastens reef degradation.

Protistan community composition and metabolism in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre: Influences of mesoscale eddies and depth.

Marine protists and their metabolic activities are intricately tied to the cycling of nutrients and the flow of energy through microbial food webs. Physiochemical changes in the environment, such as those that result from mesoscale eddies, may impact protistan communities, but the effects that such changes have on protists are poorly known. A metatranscriptomic study was conducted to investigate how eddies affected protists at adjacent cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy sites in the oligotrophic ocean at four depths from 25 to 250 m. Eddy polarity impacted protists at all depths sampled, although the effects of eddy polarity were secondary to the impact of depth across the depth range. Eddy-induced vertical shifts in the water column yielded differences in the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy protistan communities, and these differences were the most pronounced at and just below the deep chlorophyll maximum. An analysis of transcripts associated with protistan nutritional physiology at 150 m revealed that cyclonic eddies may support a more heterotrophic community, while anticyclonic eddies promote a more phototrophic community. The results of this study indicate that eddies alter the metabolism of protists particularly in the lower euphotic zone and may therefore impact carbon export from the euphotic zone.

Integrated causal-predictive machine learning models for tropical cyclone epidemiology.

Strategic preparedness reduces the adverse health impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms, referred to collectively as tropical cyclones (TCs), but its protective impact could be enhanced by a more comprehensive and rigorous characterization of TC epidemiology. To generate the insights and tools necessary for high-precision TC preparedness, we introduce a machine learning approach that standardizes estimation of historic TC health impacts, discovers common patterns and sources of heterogeneity in those health impacts, and enables identification of communities at highest health risk for future TCs. The model integrates (i) a causal inference component to quantify the immediate health impacts of recent historic TCs at high spatial resolution and (ii) a predictive component that captures how TC meteorological features and socioeconomic/demographic characteristics of impacted communities are associated with health impacts. We apply it to a rich data platform containing detailed historic TC exposure information and records of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular- and respiratory-related hospitalization among Medicare recipients. We report a high degree of heterogeneity in the acute health impacts of historic TCs, both within and across TCs, and, on average, substantial TC-attributable increases in respiratory hospitalizations. TC-sustained windspeeds are found to be the primary driver of mortality and respiratory risks.

Cyclone: open-source package for simulation and analysis of finite dynamical systems.

MOTIVATION: While there are software packages that analyze Boolean, ternary, or other multi-state models, none compute the complete state space of function-based models over any finite set. Results: We propose Cyclone, a simple light-weight software package which simulates the complete state space for a finite dynamical system over any finite set. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code is freely available at https://github.com/discretedynamics/cyclone under the Apache-2.0 license.

Tropical cyclone winds and precipitation stimulate cone production in the masting species longleaf pine (Pinus palustris).

Many trees exhibit masting - where reproduction is temporally variable and synchronous over large areas. Several dominant masting species occur in tropical cyclone (TC)-prone regions, but it is unknown whether TCs correlate with mast seeding. We analyzed long-term data (1958-2022) to test the hypothesis that TCs influence cone production in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris). We integrate field observations, weather data, satellite imagery, and hurricane models to test whether TCs influence cone production via: increased precipitation; canopy density reduction; and/or mechanical stress from wind. Cone production was 31% higher 1 yr after hurricanes and 71% higher after 2 yr, before returning to baseline levels. Cyclone-associated precipitation was correlated with increased cone production in wet years and cone production increased after low-intensity winds (≤ 25 m s-1 ) but not with high-intensity winds (> 25 m s-1 ). Tropical cyclones may stimulate cone production via precipitation addition, but high-intensity winds may offset any gains. Our study is the first to support the direct influence of TCs on reproduction, suggesting a previously unknown environmental correlate of masting, which may occur in hurricane-prone forests world-wide.

Long-term Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Disease Exacerbation Among Children with Asthma in the Eastern United States, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: Tropical cyclones are associated with acute increases in mortality and morbidity, but few studies have examined their longer-term health consequences. We assessed whether tropical cyclones are associated with a higher frequency of symptom exacerbation among children with asthma in the following 12 months in eastern United States counties, 2000-2018. METHODS: We defined exposure to tropical cyclones as a maximum sustained windspeed >21 meters/second at the county center and used coarsened exact matching to match each exposed county to one or more unexposed counties. We used longitudinal, de-identified administrative claims data to estimate the county-level, monthly risk of experiencing at least one asthma exacerbation requiring medical attention among commercially insured children aged 5-17 with prior diagnosis of asthma. We used a difference-in-differences approach implemented via a Poisson fixed effects model to compare the risk of asthma exacerbation in the 12 months before versus after each storm in exposed versus unexposed counties. RESULTS: Across 43 tropical cyclones impacting the eastern United States, we did not observe evidence of an increase in the risk of symptom exacerbation in the 12 months following the storm (random-effects meta-analytic summary estimate: risk ratio = 1.03 [95% confidence interval = 0.96, 1.10], I2 = 17%). However, certain storms, such as Hurricane Sandy, were associated with a higher risk of symptom exacerbation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that some tropical cyclones are detrimental to children's respiratory health. However, tropical cyclones were not associated in aggregate with long-term exacerbation of clinically apparent asthma symptoms among a population of children with commercial health insurance.