Prognostic models predicting transition to psychotic disorder using blood-based biomarkers: a systematic review and critical appraisal.

Accumulating evidence suggests individuals with psychotic disorder show abnormalities in metabolic and inflammatory processes. Recently, several studies have employed blood-based predictors in models predicting transition to psychotic disorder in risk-enriched populations. A systematic review of the performance and methodology of prognostic models using blood-based biomarkers in the prediction of psychotic disorder from risk-enriched populations is warranted. Databases (PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched for eligible texts from 1998 to 15/05/2023, which detailed model development or validation studies. The checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) was used to guide data extraction from eligible texts and the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the studies. A narrative synthesis of the included studies was performed. Seventeen eligible studies were identified: 16 eligible model development studies and one eligible model validation study. A wide range of biomarkers were assessed, including nucleic acids, proteins, metabolites, and lipids. The range of C-index (area under the curve) estimates reported for the models was 0.67-1.00. No studies assessed model calibration. According to PROBAST criteria, all studies were at high risk of bias in the analysis domain. While a wide range of potentially predictive biomarkers were identified in the included studies, most studies did not account for overfitting in model performance estimates, no studies assessed calibration, and all models were at high risk of bias according to PROBAST criteria. External validation of the models is needed to provide more accurate estimates of their performance. Future studies which follow the latest available methodological and reporting guidelines and adopt strategies to accommodate required sample sizes for model development or validation will clarify the value of including blood-based biomarkers in models predicting psychosis.

Transdiagnostic inflammatory subgroups among psychiatric disorders and their relevance to role functioning: a nested case-control study of the ALSPAC cohort.

Individuals with psychotic disorders and depressive disorder exhibit altered concentrations of peripheral inflammatory markers. It has been suggested that clinical trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for psychiatric disorders should stratify patients by their inflammatory profile. Hence, we investigated whether different subgroups of individuals exist across psychiatric disorders, based on their inflammatory biomarker signatures. We measured the plasma concentrations of 17 inflammatory markers and receptors in 380 participants with psychotic disorder, depressive disorder or generalised anxiety disorder and 399 controls without psychiatric symptoms from the ALSPAC cohort at age 24. We employed a semi-supervised clustering algorithm, which discriminates multiple clusters of psychiatric disorder cases from controls. The best fit was for a two-cluster model of participants with psychiatric disorders (Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) = 0.52 ± 0.01) based on the inflammatory markers. Permutation analysis indicated the stability of the clustering solution performed better than chance (ARI = 0.43 ± 0.11; p < 0.001), and the clusters explained the inflammatory marker data better than a Gaussian distribution (p = 0.021). Cluster 2 exhibited marked increases in sTNFR1/2, suPAR, sCD93 and sIL-2RA, compared to cluster 1. Participants in the cluster exhibiting higher inflammation were less likely to be in employment, education or training, indicating poorer role functioning. This study found evidence for a novel pattern of inflammatory markers specific to psychiatric disorders and strongly associated with a transdiagnostic measure of illness severity. sTNFR1/2, suPAR, sCD93 and sIL-2RA could be used to stratify clinical trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for psychiatric disorders.