Bayesian design of biosimilars clinical programs involving multiple therapeutic indications.

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian design framework for a biosimilars clinical program that entails conducting concurrent trials in multiple therapeutic indications to establish equivalent efficacy for a proposed biologic compared to a reference biologic in each indication to support approval of the proposed biologic as a biosimilar. Our method facilitates information borrowing across indications through the use of a multivariate normal correlated parameter prior (CPP), which is constructed from easily interpretable hyperparameters that represent direct statements about the equivalence hypotheses to be tested. The CPP accommodates different endpoints and data types across indications (eg, binary and continuous) and can, therefore, be used in a wide context of models without having to modify the data (eg, rescaling) to provide reasonable information-borrowing properties. We illustrate how one can evaluate the design using Bayesian versions of the type I error rate and power with the objective of determining the sample size required for each indication such that the design has high power to demonstrate equivalent efficacy in each indication, reasonably high power to demonstrate equivalent efficacy simultaneously in all indications (ie, globally), and reasonable type I error control from a Bayesian perspective. We illustrate the method with several examples, including designing biosimilars trials for follicular lymphoma and rheumatoid arthritis using binary and continuous endpoints, respectively.

Semiparametric frailty models for zero-inflated event count data in the presence of informative dropout.

Recurrent events data are commonly encountered in medical studies. In many applications, only the number of events during the follow-up period rather than the recurrent event times is available. Two important challenges arise in such studies: (a) a substantial portion of subjects may not experience the event, and (b) we may not observe the event count for the entire study period due to informative dropout. To address the first challenge, we assume that underlying population consists of two subpopulations: a subpopulation nonsusceptible to the event of interest and a subpopulation susceptible to the event of interest. In the susceptible subpopulation, the event count is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution given the follow-up time and the subject-specific characteristics. We then introduce a frailty to account for informative dropout. The proposed semiparametric frailty models consist of three submodels: (a) a logistic regression model for the probability such that a subject belongs to the nonsusceptible subpopulation; (b) a nonhomogeneous Poisson process model with an unspecified baseline rate function; and (c) a Cox model for the informative dropout time. We develop likelihood-based estimation and inference procedures. The maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be consistent. Additionally, the proposed estimators of the finite-dimensional parameters are asymptotically normal and the covariance matrix attains the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methodologies perform well in practical situations. We apply the proposed methods to a clinical trial on patients with myelodysplastic syndromes.

Improving the power to establish clinical similarity in a Phase 3 efficacy trial by incorporating prior evidence of analytical and pharmacokinetic similarity.

To improve patients' access to safe and effective biological medicines, abbreviated licensure pathways for biosimilar and interchangeable biological products have been established in the US, Europe, and other countries around the world. The US Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency have published various guidance documents on the development and approval of biosimilars, which recommend a "totality-of-the-evidence" approach with a stepwise process to demonstrate biosimilarity. The approach relies on comprehensive comparability studies ranging from analytical and nonclinical studies to clinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) and efficacy studies. A clinical efficacy study may be necessary to address residual uncertainty about the biosimilarity of the proposed product to the reference product and support a demonstration that there are no clinically meaningful differences. In this article, we propose a statistical strategy that takes into account the similarity evidence from analytical assessments and PK studies in the design and analysis of the clinical efficacy study in order to address residual uncertainty and enhance statistical power and precision. We assume that if the proposed biosimilar product and the reference product are shown to be highly similar with respect to the analytical and PK parameters, then they should also be similar with respect to the efficacy parameters. We show that the proposed methods provide correct control of the type I error and improve the power and precision of the efficacy study upon the standard analysis that disregards the prior evidence. We confirm and illustrate the theoretical results through simulation studies based on the biosimilars development experience of many different products.

Modeling event count data in the presence of informative dropout with application to bleeding and transfusion events in myelodysplastic syndrome.

In many biomedical studies, it is often of interest to model event count data over the study period. For some patients, we may not follow up them for the entire study period owing to informative dropout. The dropout time can potentially provide valuable insight on the rate of the events. We propose a joint semiparametric model for event count data and informative dropout time that allows for correlation through a Gamma frailty. We develop efficient likelihood-based estimation and inference procedures. The proposed nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Furthermore, the asymptotic covariances of the finite-dimensional parameter estimates attain the semiparametric efficiency bound. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well in practice. We illustrate the proposed methods through an application to a clinical trial for bleeding and transfusion events in myelodysplastic syndrome. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hypothesis testing for two-stage designs with over or under enrollment.

Simon's two-stage designs are widely used in cancer phase II clinical trials for assessing the efficacy of a new treatment. However in practice, the actual sample size for the second stage is often different from the planned sample size, and the original inference procedure is no longer valid. Previous work on this problem has certain limitations in computation. In this paper, we attempt to maximize the unconditional power while controlling for the type I error for the modified second stage sample size. A normal approximation is used for computing the power, and the numerical results show that the approximation is accurate even under small sample sizes. The corresponding confidence intervals for the response rate are constructed by inverting the hypothesis test, and they have reasonable coverage while preserving the type I error.

Results of a randomized, double-blind study of romiplostim versus placebo in patients with low/intermediate-1-risk myelodysplastic syndrome and thrombocytopenia.

BACKGROUND: Thrombocytopenia in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is associated with shortened survival and an increased risk of evolution to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In this study, the authors evaluated the efficacy of romiplostim in patients who had thrombocytopenia with low-risk/intermediate-1-risk MDS. METHODS: Patients who had thrombocytopenia with low-risk/intermediate-1-risk MDS (N = 250) were randomized 2:1 to receive romiplostim or placebo weekly for 58 weeks. RESULTS: The primary endpoint- the number of clinically significant bleeding events (CSBEs) per patient-had a hazard ratio for romiplostim:placebo of 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.05; P = .13). CSBEs were reduced significantly in the romiplostim group for patients who had baseline platelet counts ≥20 × 10(9) /L (P < .0001). For patients who had baseline platelet counts <20 × 10(9) /L, there was no difference in the number of CSBEs, but the platelet transfusion rates were higher in the placebo group (P < .0001), which may have affected the overall CSBE results in this group with severe thrombocytopenia. The incidence of bleeding events was reduced significantly in the romiplostim group (relative risk, 0.92), as were protocol-defined platelet transfusions (relative risk, 0.77). Platelet response rates according to 2006 International Working Group criteria were higher for the group that received romiplostim (odds ratio, 15.6). On the basis of interim data, an independent data monitoring committee advised halting study drug because of concerns regarding excess blasts and AML rates with romiplostim (interim hazard ratio, 2.51). At 58 weeks, the AML rates were 6% in the romiplostim group and 4.9% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-3.84), and the overall survival rates were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Romiplostim treatment in patients with low-risk/intermediate-1-risk MDS increased platelet counts and decreased the number of bleeding events and platelet transfusions. Although study drug was discontinued because of an initial concern of AML risk, survival and AML rates were similar with romiplostim and placebo.

Bayesian design of superiority clinical trials for recurrent events data with applications to bleeding and transfusion events in myelodyplastic syndrome.

In many biomedical studies, patients may experience the same type of recurrent event repeatedly over time, such as bleeding, multiple infections and disease. In this article, we propose a Bayesian design to a pivotal clinical trial in which lower risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients are treated with MDS disease modifying therapies. One of the key study objectives is to demonstrate the investigational product (treatment) effect on reduction of platelet transfusion and bleeding events while receiving MDS therapies. In this context, we propose a new Bayesian approach for the design of superiority clinical trials using recurrent events frailty regression models. Historical recurrent events data from an already completed phase 2 trial are incorporated into the Bayesian design via the partial borrowing power prior of Ibrahim et al. (2012, Biometrics 68, 578-586). An efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm, a predictive data generation algorithm, and a simulation-based algorithm are developed for sampling from the fitting posterior distribution, generating the predictive recurrent events data, and computing various design quantities such as the type I error rate and power, respectively. An extensive simulation study is conducted to compare the proposed method to the existing frequentist methods and to investigate various operating characteristics of the proposed design.

Multivariate recurrent events in the presence of multivariate informative censoring with applications to bleeding and transfusion events in myelodysplastic syndrome.

We propose a general novel class of joint models to analyze recurrent events that has a wide variety of applications. The focus in this article is to model the bleeding and transfusion events in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) studies, where patients may die or withdraw from the study early due to adverse events or other reasons, such as consent withdrawal or required alternative therapy during the study. The proposed model accommodates multiple recurrent events and multivariate informative censoring through a shared random-effects model. The random-effects model captures both within-subject and within-event dependence simultaneously. We construct the likelihood function for the semiparametric joint model and develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inference. The computational burden does not increase with the number of types of recurrent events. We utilize the MDS clinical trial data to illustrate our proposed methodology. We also conduct a number of simulations to examine the performance of the proposed model.

Phase 2 study of romiplostim in patients with low- or intermediate-risk myelodysplastic syndrome receiving azacitidine therapy.

We evaluated the efficacy and safety of romiplostim, a thrombopoietin mimetic, in patients with low- or intermediate-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) receiving azacitidine therapy. Forty patients with low- or intermediate-risk MDS were stratified by baseline platelet counts (< 50 vs ≥ 50 × 10(9)/L) and randomized to romiplostim 500 µg or 750 µg or placebo subcutaneously once weekly during 4 cycles of azacitidine. The primary endpoint was the incidence of clinically significant thrombocytopenic events, defined by grade 3 or 4 thrombocytopenia starting on day 15 of the first cycle or platelet transfusion at any time during the 4-cycle treatment period. No formal hypothesis testing was planned. The incidence of clinically significant thrombocytopenic events in patients receiving romiplostim 500 µg, romiplostim 750 µg, or placebo was 62%, 71%, and 85%, respectively. The incidence of platelet transfusions was 46%, 36%, and 69%, respectively. These differences were not statistically significant with the small numbers in each group. Romiplostim 750 µg significantly raised median platelet counts during cycle 3 on day 1 (P = .0373) and at the nadir (P = .0035) compared with placebo. Grade 3 rash and arthralgia each were reported in 1 romiplostim-treated patient (4%). This study suggests romiplostim may provide clinical benefits in MDS patients during azacitidine therapy.

Antisense Inhibition of Angiotensinogen With IONIS-AGT-LRx: Results of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Studies.

Targeting angiotensinogen (AGT) may provide a novel approach to more optimally inhibit the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system pathway. Double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials were performed in subjects with hypertension as monotherapy or as an add-on to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers with IONIS-AGT-LRx versus placebo up to 2 months. IONIS-AGT-LRx was well tolerated with no significant changes in platelet count, potassium levels, or liver and renal function. IONIS-AGT-LRx significantly reduced AGT levels compared with placebo in all 3 studies. Although not powered for this endpoint, trends were noted in blood pressure reduction. In conclusion, IONIS-AGT-LRx significantly reduces AGT with a favorable safety, tolerability, and on-target profile. (A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of IONIS-AGT-LRx; NCT04083222; A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of IONIS-AGT-LRx, an Antisense Inhibitor Administered Subcutaneously to Hypertensive Subjects With Controlled Blood Pressure; NCT03714776; Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Ionis AGT-LRx in Healthy Volunteers; NCT03101878).

Estimating Long-Term Survival of Adults with Philadelphia Chromosome-Negative Relapsed/Refractory B-Precursor Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Treated with Blinatumomab Using Historical Data.

INTRODUCTION: Blinatumomab is a bispecific T cell-engaging antibody construct indicated for adult patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) Ph(-) B-precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), an aggressive disease with poor prognosis. A phase 2 single-arm clinical study showed that 43% of patients achieved CR/CRh within two cycles and approximately 20% of patients receiving blinatumomab were still alive after 2 years. METHODS: The objective of the current analysis was to estimate long-term survival of patients receiving blinatumomab beyond the observed time period in the clinical study using a large historical observational dataset. Conditional survival probabilities of blinatumomab-treated patients beyond month 60 were assumed to be the same as the US general population. RESULTS: At month 60, the estimated proportion of blinatumomab-treated patients alive was more than double that of historical patients (12.6% vs 5.4%). The mean overall survival was 76.1 months for blinatumomab patients and 39.8 months for historical patients. Sensitivity analyses including additional follow-up data from the clinical study showed consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that blinatumomab provides substantial overall survival benefit to patients with (R/R) Ph(-) B-precursor ALL compared with salvage chemotherapy. FUNDING: Amgen. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01466179 and NCT02003612.

The effect of ruboxistaurin on nephropathy in type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Ruboxistaurin selectively inhibits protein kinase C-beta and ameliorates kidney disease in animal models of diabetes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of ruboxistaurin on diabetic nephropathy in humans. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter, pilot study was performed to evaluate the effects of 32 mg/day ruboxistaurin for 1 year in persons (n = 123) with type 2 diabetes and persistent albuminuria (albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] 200-2,000 mg/g), despite therapy with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors. The primary end point was a change in the ACR. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (four-component equation from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study) was also calculated. RESULTS: At baseline, urinary ACR was 764 +/- 427 mg/g (means +/- SD), and eGFR was 70 +/- 24 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 135 +/- 14 and 75 +/- 9 mmHg, respectively. HbA(1c) was 8.0 +/- 1.2%. After 1 year, urinary ACR decreased significantly (-24 +/- 9%) in participants treated with ruboxistaurin (P = 0.020) and nonsignificantly (-9 +/- 11%) in the placebo group (P = 0.430). The ACR-lowering effect of ruboxistaurin appeared by 1 month. eGFR did not decline significantly in the ruboxistaurin group (-2.5 +/- 1.9 ml/min per 1.73 m2) (P = 0.185), whereas the placebo group lost significant eGFR over 1 year (-4.8 +/- 1.8 ml/min per 1.73 m2) (P = 0.009). Between-group differences for changes in ACR and eGFR were not statistically significant, but this pilot study was underpowered to determine such differences. CONCLUSIONS: In persons with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy, treatment with ruboxistaurin reduced albuminuria and maintained eGFR over 1 year. Ruboxistaurin may add benefit to established therapies for diabetic nephropathy.

Phase I/Phase II Study of Blinatumomab in Pediatric Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

Purpose Blinatumomab is a bispecific T-cell engager antibody construct targeting CD19 on B-cell lymphoblasts. We evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics, recommended dosage, and potential for efficacy of blinatumomab in children with relapsed/refractory B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL). Methods This open-label study enrolled children < 18 years old with relapsed/refractory BCP-ALL in a phase I dosage-escalation part and a phase II part, using 6-week treatment cycles. Primary end points were maximum-tolerated dosage (phase I) and complete remission rate within the first two cycles (phase II). Results We treated 49 patients in phase I and 44 patients in phase II. Four patients had dose-limiting toxicities in cycle 1 (phase I). Three experienced grade 4 cytokine-release syndrome (one attributed to grade 5 cardiac failure); one had fatal respiratory failure. The maximum-tolerated dosage was 15 µg/m2/d. Blinatumomab pharmacokinetics was linear across dosage levels and consistent among age groups. On the basis of the phase I data, the recommended blinatumomab dosage for children with relapsed/refractory ALL was 5 µg/m2/d for the first 7 days, followed by 15 µg/m2/d thereafter. Among the 70 patients who received the recommended dosage, 27 (39%; 95% CI, 27% to 51%) achieved complete remission within the first two cycles, 14 (52%) of whom achieved complete minimal residual disease response. The most frequent grade ≥ 3 adverse events were anemia (36%), thrombocytopenia (21%), and hypokalemia (17%). Three patients (4%) and one patient (1%) had cytokine-release syndrome of grade 3 and 4, respectively. Two patients (3%) interrupted treatment after grade 2 seizures. Conclusion This trial, which to the best of our knowledge was the first such trial in pediatrics, demonstrated antileukemic activity of single-agent blinatumomab with complete minimal residual disease response in children with relapsed/refractory BCP-ALL. Blinatumomab may represent an important new treatment option in this setting, requiring further investigation in curative indications.

A randomized controlled trial of romiplostim in patients with low- or intermediate-risk myelodysplastic syndrome receiving decitabine.

Patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) receiving hypomethylating agents commonly develop thrombocytopenia. This double-blind study evaluated the efficacy and safety of romiplostim, a peptibody protein that increases platelets, in patients with MDS receiving decitabine. Patients received romiplostim 750 µg (n = 15) or placebo (n = 14) and decitabine. Median platelet counts at the beginning of each decitabine cycle trended lower in placebo-treated than in romiplostim-treated patients. Bleeding events occurred in 43% of placebo-treated and 27% of romiplostim-treated patients, and platelet transfusions were administered to 57% of placebo-treated and 47% of romiplostim-treated patients. Overall clinical therapeutic response was achieved by 21% of placebo-treated and 33% of romiplostim-treated patients. Treatment was generally well tolerated. Progression to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) occurred in one patient per group. Adding romiplostim to decitabine treatment is well tolerated and may be beneficial, as indicated by trends toward higher platelet counts at the beginning of each treatment cycle and lower platelet transfusion rates and percentages of patients with bleeding events.

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 study evaluating the efficacy and safety of romiplostim treatment of patients with low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndrome receiving lenalidomide.

BACKGROUND: Lenalidomide treatment in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) may lead to thrombocytopenia and dose reductions/delays. This study evaluated the safety and tolerability of the thrombopoietin mimetic romiplostim and its effects on the incidence of clinically significant thrombocytopenic events (CSTEs) in lower risk MDS patients receiving lenalidomide. METHODS: Patients were assigned to weekly placebo (n = 12) or romiplostim 500 µg (n = 14) or 750 µg (n = 13) for four 28-day lenalidomide cycles. RESULTS: The treatment groups were generally similar with respect to baseline disease characteristics. Del(5q) abnormalities were noted in 1 (8%) patient in the placebo group, 3 (21%) in the romiplostim 500 µg group, and two (15%) in the 750 µg group. CSTEs were noted in 8 (67%) patients in the placebo group, 4 (29%) in the romiplostim 500 µg group, and 8 (62%) in the romiplostim 750 µg group. Throughout the study, median platelet counts trended lower in placebo-treated than in romiplostim-treated patients. Thrombocytopenia-related adjustments in lenalidomide occurred in 6 (50%) patients in the placebo group, 5 (36%) in the romiplostim 500 µg group, and 2 (15%) in the 750 µg group. Although the percentages of patients who received platelet transfusions were similar across treatment groups, there was a trend toward lower numbers of transfusions in both romiplostim groups during each treatment cycle. There were two serious treatment-related adverse events during the treatment period (cerebrovascular accident, placebo; worsening thrombocytopenia, romiplostim 500 µg). Two patients (romiplostim 500 and 750 µg, respectively) had an increase in bone marrow blasts to >20% during treatment, but had no post-treatment biopsy to confirm or exclude the diagnosis of progression to AML. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that romiplostim administered to MDS patients during lenalidomide treatment may decrease the frequency of dose reductions/delays due to thrombocytopenia. Additional study is needed to confirm the results of this preliminary trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00418665.

Subcutaneous or intravenous administration of romiplostim in thrombocytopenic patients with lower risk myelodysplastic syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Romiplostim is a peptibody protein that augments thrombopoiesis by activating the thrombopoietin receptor. METHODS: In this phase 2, multicenter, open-label study, 28 thrombocytopenic patients with lower risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) were assigned to receive romiplostim 750 µg administered subcutaneously either weekly or biweekly or administered as biweekly intravenous injections for 8 weeks. Patients also could enter a 1-year study extension phase. RESULTS: At least 1 adverse event was observed in 93% of patients. The most common adverse events were fatigue and headache (18% for both, and 5 events were grade 3 or 4. There was 1 serious treatment-related adverse event in the biweekly intravenous cohort (hypersensitivity). This hypersensitivity resolved without discontinuation of study treatment. No patients developed neutralizing antibodies or bone marrow fibrosis. Of the patients who completed 8 weeks of treatment, 57% had a complete platelet response, an additional 8% had a major platelet response, and 61% did not require a platelet transfusion during this period. Weekly subcutaneous injections achieved the highest mean trough concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: The safety and efficacy profiles of romiplostim in this study suggested that weekly subcutaneous administration of 750 µg romiplostim is an appropriate starting dose for future clinical studies in patients with MDS and thrombocytopenia.

Safety and efficacy of romiplostim in patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome and thrombocytopenia.

PURPOSE: To assess the safety and efficacy of romiplostim, a peptibody that increases platelet production, for treatment of thrombocytopenic patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients had lower-risk MDS (International Prognostic Scoring System low or intermediate 1), a mean baseline platelet count