Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches.

AIM: To facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches. METHOD: We used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing electromagnetic phenomena related to lightning strikes, and the Holt-Winters smoothing (HWS) for short-term epidemic predictions. We also compared various methods for the estimation of R0. RESULTS: The R0 estimates for Croatia varied from 2.09 (95% CI 1.77-2.40) obtained by using an empirical post-hoc method to 2.28 (95% CI 2.27-2.28) when we assumed an exponential outbreak at the very beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia. Although the SEIRD model provided a good fit for the early epidemic stages, it was outperformed by the Heidler function fit. HWS achieved accurate short-term predictions and depended the least on model entry parameters. Neither model performed well across the entire observed period, which was characterized by multiple wave-form events, influenced by the re-opening for the tourist season during the summer, mandatory masks use in closed spaces, and numerous measures introduced in retail stores and public places. However, an extension of the Heidler function achieved the best overall fit. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting future epidemic events remains difficult because modeling relies on the accuracy of the information on population structure and micro-environmental exposures, constant changes of the input parameters, varying societal adherence to anti-epidemic measures, and changes in the biological interactions of the virus and hosts.

Addressing Challenges When Applying GRADE to Public Health Guidelines: A Scoping Review Protocol and Pilot Analysis.

This is a protocol for a scoping review that aims to determine how guideline authors using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach have addressed previously identified challenges related to public health. The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology for scoping reviews will be followed. We will search and screen titles of guidelines for all languages published in 2013-2021 in: the GIN library, BIGG database, Epistemonikos GRADE guidelines repository, GRADEpro Database, MAGICapp, NICE and WHO websites. Two reviewers will independently screen full texts of the documents identified. The following information will be extracted: methods used for identifying different stakeholders and incorporating their perspectives; methods for identification and prioritization of non-health outcomes; methods for determining thresholds for decision-making; methods for incorporating and grading evidence from non-randomized studies; methods for addressing concerns with conditional recommendations in public health; methods for reaching consensus; additional methodological concerns; and any modifications made to GRADE. A combination of directed content analysis and descriptive statistics will be used for data analysis, and the findings presented narratively in a tabular and graphical form. In this protocol, we present the pilot results from 13 identified eligible guidelines issued between January and August 2021. We will publish the full review results when they become available.